Seriously, our democracy is being attacked on multiple fronts, and not just those three. The entire objective is so that we don’t have the time, energy, or desire to fight fires on all those fronts, to wear us down until we accept the embrace of authoritarian rule.
Well, their support in and of itself is a nefarious scheme. That’s the favoritism part. Many of them don’t need to be threatened, they actually want these results. They look forward to be seen as enablers, as supporters to an autocrat, and to reap the rewards for their loyalty.
And the fact that the stick exists as well is not an insignificant factor. Anyone who has come out against Trump has been vilified and attacked. There have been releases of embarrassing information given about those who have balked at Trump’s actions.
So, as I said, it doesn’t require secret agents to personally and individually contact every politician, it just requires a few examples of rewarding the loyal and punishing the disloyal to keep everyone in line.
As you said, they are in safe districts, they don’t need to support Trump’s attempt at overturning the election to stay in office. They are not doing this because it is what their voters want, but because it is what benefits them the most personally. Part of the reason that ordinary Republican voters are still supporting Trump is precisely because there are still a number of elected officials that are supporting Trump. That there are people who are in power who claim that the election was rigged and that they are going to do something about it gives credence and strength to the belief that the election was rigged and that something should be done about it.
Later in 2021, Trump declares “I meant to do that,” proves it by opening the Trump School of Law and Golf in the Marshall Islands. Following its accreditation by Trump Board of Degrees, it enjoys a brief meteoric rise and then goes bankrupt after admitting leprosy patients from Molokai who convinced him that the disease is a hoax, as the press captures students shambling in the streets, missing fingers and toes, carrying signs that say “MY RIGHT TO ROT.”
@Horatius claimed Russian subversion. @Ann_Hedonia claimed secret blackmail files about extra-marital affairs that are supposedly widely widespread among Washington politicians but which only Donald Trump is willing to exploit. They both initially claimed that these were explanations for the otherwise supposedly inexplicable behavior of Republican politicians falling into line behind Donald Trump.
I gave an alternate explanation that relies on established elements of human nature and political culture.
@RickJay then came in to ask why Republican officials were still supporting Trump even after he clearly lost the election.
I extended the explanation based on established elements of human nature and political culture.
Then you came in to start arguing…I’m actually not exactly sure what. You definitely seem to think I’m wrong about something, but I’m not quite clear what.
Do you agree with Horatius, that Republican officials are supporting Trump due to Russian subversion? Do you agree with Ann_Hedonia, that they are doing so due to some sort of blackmail scheme? Do you agree with RickJay, that their continued support of Trump after he clearly lost the election needs some special explanation beyond human nature and political culture?
Those are the multiple fronts I don’t want to fight. Which is it? Russian subversion? Secret blackmail scheme? General political thuggery?
Here’s the thing. I agree that Donald Trump is a petty, vindictive, unscrupulous, narcissistic bully who not only doesn’t hesitate to use his power and influence to strong-arm, intimidate, and retaliate, he revels in it.
I think political scientists and historians are going to be studying him and his presidency for decades, trying to figure out what was really going on behind the scenes, and how much and in what situations and what proportions his bullying and tweeting and other activities actually shaped perceptions and policies, and how much of what happened was due to structural factors.
What I don’t think is that any evidence is ever going to turn up that Republican officials supported him due to Russian subversion (I could be wrong - show me the evidence). I also don’t think evidence is ever going to turn up that Republican officials supported him due to some sort of blackmail scheme (again, I could be wrong - show me the evidence).
Again, he’s still popular among Republican voters, especially, and this is key, among highly committed and motivated Republican voters who vote in primaries.
Which is where we get back to those safe seats. Republicans in safe seats actually have more pressure to back Trump. They don’t have a realistic risk of losing in a general election. They do have a realistic risk of losing in a primary to a Trumpist. This is literally Political Science 101.
The Republican establishment was originally anti-Trump. Until he started winning primaries and caucuses. As he became the clear front-runner, Republicans started falling in line behind him. As he became the presumptive nominee, then the official nominee, then the President-elect, then the President, then as mid-term primaries approached, more and more former rivals and establishment figures fell in behind him.
If there were some sort of Russian subversion or blackmail scheme (or an amorphous threat of blackmail) to force Republicans to support him, why didn’t the Cabal carrying out those schemes do so before he became the front-runner, when the outcome was actually in doubt? Why did they wait until he actually started accumulating political power and influence on his own before subverting Republican officials?
I’m not defending Donald Trump. He’s awful. I’m just saying these theories of Russian subversion and blackmail schemes just aren’t useful explanations for what we’re actually seeing.
I think that it is outside enough of the norms of political culture that there is more to it. It is one thing to support a president’s re-election bid, even to support a president in their lame duck session. It’s even normal to continue to fondly remember and pine for the days when your favored person was in the office.
This is entirely different. They are attempting to subvert democracy, to overturn the election. They are throwing out every bit of political culture, every norm, every shred of a belief in the principles that make us a nation. You are not wrong that human nature is involved in this, they are doing this out of greed with a belief of reward of loyalty, and fear of the punishment that comes with opposition.
If there was anything normal about this, then we would have plenty of examples of this sort of behavior from every election. We really don’t. This is new, this is different, this is not normal, this is not a manifestation of political culture. This is people getting in line, preparing for an entire paradigm shift in the nature of our society.
Well, those are three of the fronts that they are fighting on. If you only want to focus on one, or something entirely different for the purposes of this discussion, that’s perfectly fine. This is just discussion, and other than possibly being individually prepared for what comes next, it doesn’t actually accomplish much in the greater scheme of things.
So, if you want to pick one to discuss, or to not discuss, or if you want to talk about something entirely different, go ahead. It won’t make a difference to their motives or actions either way.
Right, but I think that Trump is just one part of a much larger problem. He is not the cause, he is a symptom. He is also a test run for a future autocrat. He’s a big problem right now, just as cryptococcal meningitis is a big problem for an AIDS patient, but it’s not the cause, and even if you resolve that particular condition, you are still susceptible to others.
Sure, as well as nefarious actors who will be studying his actions, in what worked, what didn’t, what he could have done differently in order to achieve the dictatorial position they are coveting.
We already have evidence of this. They influenced the 2016 election, this has been documented through and through, and there is plenty of evidence that they were involved in the 2020 elections, though it will take a bit more time for that evidence to be thoroughly investigated and documented.
We have already shown you evidence of blackmail and release of embarrassing information against Republicans and media figures who opposed him.
As I have stated, they don’t need to go to each and every official with offers and threats, just a few examples need to be made of rewarding loyalty and punishing opposition. This has been done, this has been documented, and the evidence has already been shown in this thread.
And, yes, this is among the threats that are aimed at those who would dare oppose him. Not all extortion is secret. Much of it he has done via twitter.
Well, that doesn’t make sense because you are misunderstanding the motive here. There is no actual desire to support Trump from the Russian or other foreign influences, only to damage the US.
I think that there is a whole lot more than Russian subversion and blackmail schemes that are attacking our country and our principles of self governance, however, those are absolutely a part of it.
You seem to think that this needs to be some sort of organized scheme, especially with your invocation of the word “cabal”. There is no cabal, there is no conspiracy organizing all of this. This is multiple actors, all with their own ends in mind, all with their own methods. The only thing that they have in common is the end result of damaging our institutions, our nation, and our principles of a democratic form of government.
The two simple answers are (a) nobody had any exposure to prosecution or embarrassment, or (b) many Republicans had exposure to the same weaknesses Trump did. What scheme does every single Republican have exposure to? For one, there’s the NRA. According to the US Senate, the NRA was a foreign asset of Russia through 2016.. We’ve all seen the photos of honeypot Marina Butina with her arms around prominent Republican officials.
I feel like the Republican party has, for a long time now, been so shot through with corruption that nobody can risk pointing a finger at anybody else. Trump didn’t have access to that leverage before he was elected, but I’m sure people were lining up the next day to provide him dirt on others that would advance their own prospects.
I’m not saying that’s what happened, but none of it is farfetched at all. Totally plausible series of events, with some variations. I doubt Lindsey Graham is gay, but I would have zero surprise to learn that Trump hooked him up with a dirt-cheap property and a high-price buyer who later turned out to be the Russian mob. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hannity was in the same boat.
I’m genuinely unsure of how to respond to you. You seem to be conflating any number of things, and then attacking something that’s not even a strawman of what I’m arguing.
I’m not defending the actions of Donald Trump or Republican officials. I agree that what they’re doing is beyond the pale. I’m genuinely at a loss as to what you think we’re disagreeing about there.
There’s no doubt that Russia attempted to influence the U.S. elections in 2016 (and almost certainly in 2020 as well) through various means. What is the evidence, per @Horatius, that Russian agents have subverted actual individual Republican officials and that those officials are acting as Russian assets?
There’s no doubt that Donald Trump is a bully who blusters, threatens and intimidates. @Ann_Hedonia gave evidence of a single, bungled, attempt at blackmailing a pair of journalists, and something that might have been some sort of attempt at blackmail/intimidation aimed at Ted Cruz. What’s the actual evidence that specific, individual Republican officials have been blackmailed or intimidated by the threat of potential blackmail, based on the threat of revealing compromising information? Going back to Ann_Hedonia’s original formulation of this scheme, what is the evidence that Republican officials are afraid to cross Trump for fear of the revelation of their extra-marital affairs that everyone knows about but no one but Trump is willing to use as political ammunition?
I’m not saying that challenging the clear results of the 2020 elections with spurious allegations of fraud is ok. I’m not saying that it’s ok for Republican officials who aren’t themselves making these allegations to stand idly by while others do so. I’m not saying that this is politics as normal. I’m definitely not saying that it should be.
I’m saying that this behavior isn’t due to some sort of hidden scheme, whether it’s Russian subversion or some sort of blackmail scheme. It’s due to structural factors and social trends and terrible decisions by flawed human beings who are consumed by tribalism and short-term calculations of personal interest.
You seem to be looking at venal politicians acting like venal politicians and seeing evidence of secret blackmail schemes and Russian espionage that’s forcing them to act like venal politicians. I look at venal politicians acting like venal politicians and see evidence that venal politicians are venal politicians.
I think it’s entirely within the realm of possibility, considering how the Russian oligarchs have taken advantage of the openness of our political & economic system to outside exploitation.
How much of what influences Republicans is due to foreign manipulation and how much of it is driven by domestic concern is hard to say. I’d agree that, Republicans have to win elections first – for now, in 2020. But Russia’s meddling is such that they are clearly influencing GOP to behave in ways that violate our long-standing norms. True, they were doing that well before 2016, but I think the last 4-8 years (since 2012), we’ve seen an acceleration of this trend.
So, is it Russian oligarchs or the SVR? Both? Is it ordinary criminal corruption or targeted espionage?
I don’t doubt that individual Russian oligarchs would love to have a corrupt U.S. official in their pocket. I have no doubt that Russian intelligence would love to subvert U.S. officials and Republican party officials and other influential public figures.
Now, what’s the actual evidence that this has actually happened?
Again, there’s no reasonable dispute that Russian intelligence didn’t use various active measures to influence the 2016 elections. They very clearly, provably did. There’s not much room to dispute that they tried again in 2020, or that they’ll try again in the future.
What’s the actual evidence that specific Republican officials are supporting Donald Trump and his spurious allegations of election fraud due to being Russian assets?
That’s admittedly hard to come by, but it’s entirely possible that such evidence might not be in hand until years from now.
Also, “influence” has to be defined. There’s a difference between oligarchs tossing billions of unmarked bills into hundreds of political campaigns and/or FSB having a treasure trove of kompromat on 100+ GOP members of congress, thereby having direct command/control over a faction of the political system…and having more subtle, but nevertheless powerful, means of influencing right wing politics, like say through the NRA or through billionaire-backed political action committees that operate via oligarchs with dual loyalties between countries.
There is a huge difference between “we are already living in an authoritarian state,” which we are not, and “there is no authoritarianism, of any flavor, that is taking root in the USA”.
Certainly there are indications that trump was maybe going there, and of course Moscow Mitch runs the nation.
Yeah, I am having the same “debate” with him, and I am not sure exactly what point he is trying to prove, I think it is that America is secretly Nazi or something, but that doesnt seem right.
I am not conflating things, I am pointing out that there are multiple things. If anything is conflating anything, it is an implication that these multiple things are coordinated.
I am not sure either. I agree that it is beyond the pale. I don’t agree, however, that this is just a result of political culture.
Well, as you said, there were Russian attempts to influence the election. That’s going to have an effect on the political landscape. We know that the NRA was pretty much entirely in Russian hands for a few years. As far as @Horatius goes, (and he is welcome to explain himself, I’m not entirely sure why I am in the position of having to justify other poster’s positions) I think the strongest language he used in that regard was “I wouldn’t be surprised if”, which is the kind of speculation that I would normally not demand evidence for.
But it is absolutely clear that they have seen this influence, and need to be worried about it being used against them, and it is pretty likely that they have received some amounts of money and support from Russian originated sources.
I mean, you complained about strawman at the beginning of your post, but here you are demanding that I give evidence of something that I have specifically said probably did not happen.
The evidence that @Ann_Hedonia gave was that of examples made of those who opposed. It is not necessary for others to be individually and specifically intimidated. That others have been publicly punished and rewarded is all that is needed. And we have seen that public punishment and reward.
You are limiting it to extra marital affairs, as though that’s the shadiest thing that anyone has done. It actually works better to not specifically approach anyone with evidence of their embarrassing or illegal deeds, and instead simply make a few public examples. Then everyone needs to worry about what may be known, about what may be exposed. That’s a much easier game to play.
As far as evidence goes, well, that’s proof in the pudding. You have people that went from saying that Trump was an incompetent clown to lavishing him with praise, and excoriating anyone who would say otherwise. That’s not normal, that’s not political culture, that’s fear of punishment and desire for reward.
I am under no illusion that you are, and that’s not what I am discussing.
But, you did say that it was just political culture and human behavior. That to me is saying that this is politics as normal.
Neither am I. I am saying that this is an overt scheme that is being played out in public, that people are ignoring because it is being done so openly.
There are elements of that, but that’s being played up and amplified. There is more to it, that tribalism didn’t come out of no where, those structural issues are not a part of our normal operating system. But you are absolutely correct that the problem is flawed human beings with short term selfish interests, it’s just that you seem to discount that there is any sort of influence to those interests, that for some reason that threats and promises of reward do not factor into these decisions.
No, I look at venal politicians, and I see what is publicly influencing them. I make no assertion that these threats and promises are being done in secret, I see them being made in public.
As do I, and I see them being played by multiple actors in multiple ways who would like to see harm come to the US in order to further their own interests.
Yes, we do have evidence that that Russians had/have a secret org that tried to(and to an extent succeed in) influence American voters thru Social Media propaganda. That is entirely different than the Kremlin has subverted American politicians. Cite?
That was actually kinda my point. I was saying that was according to the logic that would say that if fascism has come to America, then we are already living in a fascist state.
If you agree that there is a huge difference, then we are in agreement, and I am glad to have helped you to clear up the confusion that you initially had.
If that is truly what you think, then there is no point in having any further discussion here, as that is not even close, not in the slightest. Nothing that I have said even remotely resembles what you think, so further discussion with you has absolutely no possibility of productivity.