If he believes that his legal troubles are less threatening than the legal troubles arising from an overt attempted coup, then he’d attempt the coup. I agree with that much.
To me, the calculation seems to weigh against that kind of coup, so he won’t attempt it. He’ll likely pardon himself for every federal charge. He’ll continue to delay and defer the SDNY charge.
The pardon may eventually be overturned, but it also may not.
SDNY arrest may eventually come nigh, but he can just hole up in Trump Towers Istanbul or Trump International Dubai.
Most developed countries have an extradition treaty with the US, but there’s been a totally coincidental epidemic of countries blowing off international treaties with no consequences whatsoever.
Suffice to say I think the incentives against it far outweigh Trump’s incentives in favor of declaring martial law without stated support of the military.
But would he try, if his self-preservation calculus demanded it? Absolutely, no doubt about it.
But what if it’s not terrorism? What if it’s a right wing occupy movement where lines of pick up trucks with Trump flags block traffic all over the US? Only the trucks are filled with guys with guns. It seems like a dangerous threat but they aren’t doing anything ‘wrong’ except bringing traffic to a halt.
I don’t see why people are having a hard time accepting what the evidence is pointing to. Trump is an incompetent loser who is lying.
When people start theorizing about how Donald Trump has a secret plan to seize power because he’s a political mastermind, I have to ask if we’re talking about the same person. What have we seen in the last four years - or the last forty years - that would indicate Trump is capable of forming a good plan and then carrying it out?
Then when the police ask them to move along, they can demonstrate that they are the party of law and order.
Nothing.
However, what we have seen is more competent people attaching themselves to him and using his “brand” for their own personal gain.
If Trump choked to death on a KFC drumstick right now, there would still be his supporters wanting to advance what they see as his agenda for their own personal gain.
Can you tell me of any martyrs that personally benefited from the actions of their followers?
Sure, they attached themselves to Trump when he was on top. But he lost.
Right now, the competent people are all working on putting distance between themselves and the Trump administration and figuring out where they’re going to spend the next four years. The only ones who are sticking with Trump at this point are the hopeless cases.
The rogue idiots make trouble and incite violence, and that helps give Trump his justification for Martial law (or whatever) and his attempts to have the military take over.
"We must restore law and order! Look at all the violence! (ignoring that the violence is being committed by his own supporters)
There most likely will be a series of domestic terrorist attacks after Biden’s inauguration. There are some crazy people living in this country and Trump has fired them up.
Some people will die. But like 9/11, there won’t be anything that approaches the level of threatening the existence of the country, our system of government, or the Biden administration. The deaths will just further discredit the right wing.
This would be more like McVeigh than Osama. 9/11 was an attack from outside, on “symbols” of our wealth and power.
Domestic terrorism could be much more surgically targeted. Attacks on government offices, government officials, and their families, if they are not “patriotic” enough for these assholes.
9/11 and even the OKC bombing were one-offs. Once things had settled, we were pretty sure it was over, that there were no more attacks planned or in the works. With domestic terrorism like this, we would not have that assurance. Every day that someone shows up at the capitol building for their state, they will need to worry about what could happen. Every time they go home from work, they will need to worry about their families.
I don’t think it will be organized, which means that catching one particular cell will do little to stop or discourage the others.
Historically, the 2000’s were not the peak of terrorism in the United States. There were significantly more terrorist attacks in the seventies than there were in the 2000’s. There were 1470 terrorist attacks in the United States between 1970 and 1979. There were 214 terrorist attacks in the United States between 2002 and 2013.
Not the same thing though. The Trump appointees may have sworn their oaths, but they were also getting some degree of political patronage (i.e. jobs) from his administration. They stood to gain from breaking those oaths.
The vast majority of military officers, and probably virtually of them above about O-3 swore their oaths prior to Trump taking office. And probably a big chunk of the enlisted did as well. So none of them immediately stood to benefit from Trump’s administration when they took their oaths. And really, they don’t particularly stand to benefit now either.
I don’t see the military budging a millimeter to support Trump’s nonsense. It’s not within what they’ve been chartered to do and it’s not legal - for Trump to order it, or for the military to obey it.