How likely is US military intervention in Cuba?

Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated this week on “Meet the Press” that, after Venezuela, Cuba might be the Trump administration’s next target.

Cuba has a close long-term alliance with Russia. And – even amid a severe economic crisis – its regime is likely more resilient than Venezuela’s proved to be. Are those factors enough to discourage this White House from intervening in Cuba?

The current administration seems to think the United States is free to do what it likes in its sphere of influence, while Russia is free to do so in its (which includes Ukraine) and China in its (which includes Taiwan). So the administration may expect Russia to do nothing if the US government attempts regime change in Havana.

I wouldn’t count it out, especially if Rubio has any say, but Cuba may be safe because it doesn’t have oil or any other resources Trump wants to steal.

This.

Wait until the price of sugar goes up.

RFK is banning sugar.

Cuba would be a welfare liability. There might be some strategic or flag-waving benefit to controlling it after opposing the Castros for 66 years (or so). It might make some fairly influential Republican Cuban-Americans happy if they got their ancestral estates back, but not if they would be expected to employ or take care of any of the current population of those areas. To me, the balance sheet appears to say Not Likely.

Wouldn’t he be more likely to ban sugar substitutes first?

I exaggerate . . . but only a little,

That just gives TFG more pretext to invade Cuba. We’ll begin by murdering dangerous sugar-smugglers and TFG or RFK will tell us for each boat full of people we murder, 25,000 American lives are saved.

Cuba might not have much oil, but it has prime seafront property.

Cuba dared to defy us and has never been properly punished with mass slaughter and devastation. We’ll attack it sooner or later, the only question is when. Not out of any desire to profit, but just to slaughter them and drop bombs, then install a pet dictator to torment them for a few decades.

I suspect Greenland will be first though since it looks bigger on a map, which strokes Trump’s ego. Then either Cuba for anger or Panama for greed. Then it’s a tossup between Canada and Mexico.

He wants to reestablish, and then bankrupt, the Mob’s old casinos.

Well, when you have a business plan that works….

^ This and…

^ This.

Plus it is close at hand and DJT likely imagines it will help his popularity with the masses.
And imagine all the beautiful Trump Hotels he could build.

Hotels that require armored convoys to get guests to and from the heavily fortified airport.

The Fanjul family would like that. The U.S. doesn’t get any sugarcane from Cuba. If anything opening up that market would lower the price. The Fanjul’s control most production in the U.S. and would love to see the price go up.

After most of this year speculating, it looks like the chickens have come home to roost, the other shoe has dropped, and the cat’s out of the bag. This week:

The Army Reserve has asked its commanders whether military police, medics and other support units could be made available as soon as late December to back potential military action aimed at Cuba…

Here’s the CBS News story:

U.S. military lays groundwork for potential action around Cuba

So – the leak isn’t much more than Trump is saying himself. While I’m all on the side of the leakers, I doubt the leak reduced the likelihood of DJT ordering invasion.

What could CBS News have withheld? Names of specific units? Or maybe it was something minor, just so the reporters could claim to Bari Weiss that they hadn’t gone all out.

This is just the break the Corleone family has been waiting for since 1959.

I have a suggestion for the Trump regime: why not relive history and go in through this little access point?

(sorry, I don’t own a sharpie, but he’ll get the idea, if not the point.)