Suppose the US decided to invade Cuba to overthrow Casto like we did with Saddam in Iraq. Compared to the Iraq invasion, how difficult would this be?
It would be a cakewalk. The poeple would welcome us as liberators.
Sorry… I couldn’t resist.
I suspect it would be harder in some ways (shock and awe would be even quicker), but with all that jungle, the insurgency would be worse to handle.
It’s a two-step issue.
-
How hard would it be to remove Castro from power? Pretty easy. Cuba has less military power than Iraq did in 1991 and it’s a lot closer. As a military operation, it would be comparable to what happened in Panama.
-
How hard would it be to take the consequences of removing Castro from power? A lot more difficult, although not quite as bad as it would have been in the past. Twenty years ago it would have been virtually impossible; the Soviet Union was pledged to defend Cuba - even if they didn’t go nuclear, they could have retaliated by occupying one of our allies like Norway or Turkey. But even today the consequences would be severe - maybe ten times worse than the fallout from Iraq. We’d almost certainly be kicked out of the OAS and maybe NATO. And there would be serious economic boycotts, like maybe an oil embargo, throughout the world.
We’ve discussed Cuba many times in GD, and from discussions, cites, etc., there, I get the impression that there are many, many Cubans who, even if they don’t give a rat’s ass about socialism, still admire Castro because he’s the only Cuban leader since the Spanish-American War to stand up to the U.S. and make it stick. And they would be . . . displeased.
And besides that, there are many (not many, many, but many) Cubans, believe it or not, who do still believe in socialism and would want to freely choose some form of it, if offered a free and effective choice.
I think we’d be stirring up something too hot to handle.
It wouldn’t be difficult at all. The aftermath, however, wouldn’t be pleasant. And besides, why would we want to? What’s more, what makes so many people in the US think we have a right to? The question comes up with alarming regularity, as if there are people that really want it to happen, and I’m frankly aghast at that.
As for Cuban resistance/insurgancy, I imagine any influx of foreign fighters and terrorists would be somewhat easier to prevent. (What with it being an island, and all.)
Foreign fighters isn’t a major factor even in Iraq:
(That’s from a Wikipedia entry, but it has the original cites.)
Well, it would be about as hard as pushing a 75-80 year old man down the stairs. Or turning on a microwave somewhere around him. Or waiting about a week.
And then, it would be a cake walk. the people would welcome us as liberators!
(John Mace, you slay me 
Your little quip was so good that I decided to steal your words and people would think of me when they are repeated! As a matter of fact, I’ll tell people that I made it up!)
hh
Yes. They’re known as “Miami Cubans.”
Oh! You want Great Debates. Next room down the hall.
Moved. samclem GQ moderator
It would be much much harder than Panama.
-
There is much more support among the Cuban population for Castro than there ever was for Noriega, especially towards the end of his rule.
-
Cuba has a much larger population than Panama - almost 4 times larger. There are many more cities that would need to be controlled.
-
Cuba’s military is much stronger than Panama’s was in 1989.
-
We had many existing bases in Panama, immediately adjacent to the major population centers - US troops often were simply able to drive right out of the bases and take control. Just prior to the invasion, the US flew in large numbers of troops and supplies directly to Howard AFB.
This said, the US could probably take over Cuba fairly easily, but it wouldn’t be over in a matter of days as it was in Panama. And there would be far more likelihood of continued guerrilla activity against US forces. That was nearly absent after the Panama invasion.
There isn’t all that much “jungle” in Cuba - a lot of the forest is pine, and there isn’t that much left - about 20 of the island is forested, mostly in the mountains in the southeast.
Castro was born in 1926. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fidel_castro
Why not just wait for him to die of natural causes?
Yes, and Tampa Cubans, too. Our government’s objections to Castro mostly fall into two categories. First, a lot of private industries (sugar, rum, and cigars) were confiscated after the revolution, and the owners are still peeved. Second, Fidel is a communist, which leads to a lot of scary cold-war domino theory fear. That part doesn’t carry a lot of weight anymore. There’s, what, four communist nations left? Of those four, China and Vietnam are gradually becoming capitalist, and only North Korea is dangerous.
What could we gain by overthrowing Castro? We would create low-cost competition for our own sugar and tobacco industries, and we’d take on a responsibility to aid a country that has been falling apart for half a century. There’s no plus side there.
Pretty much my first thought. Even if his bro takes over…he’s getting up there in years IIRC also. I can’t think of a single good reason for the US to exert itself as far as Cuba goes.
From the purely hypothetical though, it would be cake to take over Cuba IMHO…if by take over you mean destroy Cuba’s organized military in the field, move in troops and take control of the major bases and cities, etc. I’m not even convinced that the Cubans could or would put up as determined of an insurgency as, say, Iraq. Resupply from an outside power would be a bitch…not to mention the fact that I doubt fanatics from all over would be converging on Cuba just for the chance to kill real live Americans.
That said it would be costly in terms of money…something we definitely can’t afford. Also it would be VERY costly in terms of global politics and good will…such as we still have it of course. Regionally especially I think the US would take a nose dive…and its not like we are all that high there atm.
So…why would we want to again?
-XT
Actually, Tampa’s Cuban community is much older than Miami’s – it dates from the late 19th Century. http://www.cubanclub.org/pjd_article_1.html IOW, it is not composed (chiefly) of refugees from Castro’s Revolution, and does not have quite the same mad-on for Castro as they have down in Miami.
And they are completely deluded if they think any post-Castro Cuban government, whatever its form or ideology, is going to give any of that back to them.
It would be very difficult and take millions of years.
First, we’d have to clone some dinosaurs and a bunch of dinosaur-type tree ferns, and giant insects and junk. Then we’d have to bury them beneath Cuba. Then we’d have to set the timer to go “ding” in a gajillion years, when it’s all turned to oil. Then we could invade.
You are forgetting lissener, the Cubans have something better than oil. They have…cigars!
-XT
Dat ain’t nuttin’ . . .
Maybe we should just send our military back to south-east Asia. It’s got all the reasons people have mentioned here; Communists, oil, and prostitutes (okay, no major tobacco industry but they do have opium). Plus we’d have the element of surprise on our side this time - nobody would ever expect us to start another Vietnam War.