How likely is US military intervention in Cuba?

I’m reading that Cuba imports 70 percent of its food, or at least used to:

Foreign Policy Association

A strict blockade would take years to achieve regime change. And I don’t know if even the Trumpers would have the stomach for it. Cuban Americans would not like a policy of starving them out.

Trump is casualty adverse. But he also is long-war-adverse. If he wants to conquer Cuba, he’ll have to pick his poison.

Here’s a reason Trump will not initiate a strict blockage of Cuba:

United Press

So there are at least two of Trump’s constituencies that would be against a real blockade – Cuban Americans, and U.S. farmers.

As for a partial blockage, it would take far longer to work. Even Trump would see that.

I do not see how Trump can hope to achieve his aims in Cuba without U.S. troops.

US farmers are already pissed off.

Then, it will not happen, and what- exactly- are those “aims”? Since i doubt if he really knows.

But is there any evidence that they will ever vote against the Republican party?

On Saturday, Trump said “We want to open Cuba up to our people.” That means businesspeople. I’m guessing the Trump organization for tourism and maybe a U.S. big-tobacco stake in cigars, that being AFAIK Cuba’s biggest export.

I speculate that he would like to see a right wing regime that flatters himself, as in El Salvador.

More specifically, his cronies and stooges.

President Donald Trump predicted on Saturday that the US and Cuba will reach an agreement and that he does not think military action will be necessary.

“I would say that Cuba and us will make a deal. I don’t think we’ll need the military,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

The Trump administration has openly stated that its goal is to change Cuba‘s government. A US-imposed oil blockade implemented earlier this year has put the country under severe strain as it contends with fuel shortages and blackouts exacerbated by failing infrastructure.

yep, cigars are #1, followed by Zinc, lead, nickel, and Rum.

It shows the failure of a communist regime that Cuba has to import food.

The stupid thing is Trump’s claim that he wants “to open Cuba up to our people.” That’s entirely on the US government; I think we’re the only country that Cuba doesn’t trade with. I wonder if the Castro regime would have lasted as long as it has without the US embargo.

I previously posted a link showing that the U.S. has become the biggest exporter of goods purchased by Cuba. However, there are big recent year-to-year changes, so you can find contrary links.

By Trump’s mercantilist principles, he should love Cuba just as it is now because the U.S. has a big trade surplus (we sell them food but refuse to buy their exports).

This … cannot be helping the Cubans or their agriculture/food supply situation:

Lovely. Yea, us!!!

So, we’re either starving them out for some TBD self-interest play, or … y’know … just for sport.