How Long Can May Last???

With the resignation of the Brexit Secretary, and now Boris Johnson, how long can May’s sinking ship stay afloat? And will there be yet another election in Britain’s future?

If 48 letters are sent by Tory backbenchers to the Chair of the 1922 Committee, then a confidence vote is called. Current rumours among political journos - as of this literal minute, it’s a fast-moving kinda day - suggest that that threshold may have been reached.

If May survives the confidence vote, then she’s safe (from her own party at least) for a year, per the rules. If she loses, then there’s a leadership contest, and that can take up to three months.

So, unless she resigns, she’s got at least some time left.

Of course a leadership contest would freeze Britain’s negotiations yet again. It would mean hard Brexit by default.
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31 days

Somebody had to do it.

I don’t get the reference? Googling “31 days” leads to some particularly fruity lyrics by a rapper called Future and some stuff about St Ignatius?

Edit: OH FOR FUCKS SAKE I AM SO STUPID :smack::smack::smack:

Think it’s a reference to the month of May. There is also a mayfly joke in there somewhere…

Yes, ahem, I knew that all along.

Which would itself be a violation of the Good Friday agreement, lodged as a formal treaty with the UN. It’s an utter, utter shambles - it’s not like the EU will or even can agree to the latest pick’n’mix proposals.

We all overthink things sometimes, I was confused as well.

It’s over. All 31 days of it.

It’s July already. Let go of it.

Here’s CNN’s coverage: https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/09/uk/theresa-may-boris-johnson-david-davis-intl/index.html

It’s not looking good for May. I give her credit for trying to carry out the (idiotic) wishes of British voters in the Brexit referendum, but she’s just stumbled from crisis to crisis.

So if another general election were to be held (I know, y’all hate those, don’t you?) could they then re-open the question of Brexit to the voters? I’ve heard various arguments in favor of this, and it seems like the only real answer. What is the down side?

The general public are utterly sick to the back teeth with Brexit and just want it in the past.

I personally would love it to be re-opened so it’s shot dead or, at least the current mess has a better mandate than the 2016 farce.

I think however most people will not be interested in doing this.
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I’m not clear how we get to a GE from here, but if it ends up happening then it very much depends on what Labour in particular put in their manifesto I guess.

Another GE would probably result in yet another Tory minority government. I just can’t see Labour doing better than they did last year. Labour is totally screwed with Corbyn, there just aren’t enough voter willing to take a chance with him, Diane Abbott, and John McDonnell. The ideal situation would be a coalition of Labour, the SNP, and Lib Dems. But, Corbyn isn’t known for playing well with others. He’s a true ideologue. And, with Labour’s screwy leadership rules, there’s no way to get rid of Corbyn. Perhaps yet another GE loss would provide an impetus to finally dump Corbyn. I don’t think either a Tory or Labour leader can survive multiple GE defeats, the days of Kinnock losing to Thatcher over and over are gone.

Ed Miliband really should have stayed on as leader.

Do you mean another referendum? Theoretically it is possible but another one is very, very unlikely. At a push I can see a party running on a platform of another referendum on a hard or soft Brext, but even that is probably pie in the sky.

Btw it is no REAL answer if it’s a second referendum attempting to over-turn the first. If you think folk in the UK and the US are disillusioned with the political class now just wait until BrexitRefII. The populism of 2016 will be nothing compared to populism after a second referendum.

There’s a couple of Trade bills about to come out of report stage and back to Parliament. There will be amendments to those, and I suspect at least that a “stay in the customs union” last-ditch attempt will succeed. As the prospect of a catastrophic no-deal exit looms ever larger, minds will focus (he says hopefully)

Imo there will definitely be a Brexit. The big question is whether it’s a soft Brexit or a hard Brexit. It may merely be Brexit in name only, but a deal has to be reached(or not reached in the case of a non deal hard Brexit) that can be sold to UK voters as Brexit. Anything less will have consequences that favour all sorts of future populist movements in the UK.

Therein lies the rub because it’s becoming clear that she has comprehensively failed to do that and has just come up with a fudge.