How Long to Restart Civilization?

Great Debates
41

What kind of group would you send back, and how would you prepare them? The OP said several thousand, and 3000 came up later, so let’s say we have a way of sending 3000 people to this alternate universe/prehistoric time.

First things first, if this is a serious project with strong governmental support (as most colonization attempts would be) the people sent will be the absolute best for whatever role they are to accept, and this is going to be planned out extensively ahead of time. Here’s how I’d do it. A chain of command and a way of enforcing pre-agreed upon rules will be organized.

A good percentage of those sent back will have been trained in use of primitive weaponry and appropriate tactics (probably ex-military folks), psychological profiling will make sure that all these people are the kind who are cool-headed yet unswervingly loyal. They will also be cross-trained in other outdoorsman-type skills that they may not already have been trained in - they will be the primary hunters and explorers in times of peace to keep them busy. I’m not sure what percentage of the population this group will have to make up - their primary purpose, of course, is to enforce the law and keep people from straying from the plan but I’m not sure what kind of numbers advantage they would need in case of a ‘civillian’ revolt with the weapons they will have - bows, crossbows, and polearms almost immediately, and they shouldn’t have to upgrade for a while as long as they keep the rest of the population disarmed. I’m pretty sure that 20% (600) could keep the other 80% under control if the 80% is limited to common tools as weapons and they are not allowed to train for combat or assemble in large groups. It should be easy for them to maintain control, they are going to be providing a great deal of the food at the beginning and later will have free time to keep a close eye on everybody else.

The majority of the population is going to have to work, and hard. No time is to be wasted, and there will always be a next stage of colony development that can be worked on and if there is no farming to be done you will be working on something else. If everything necessary is already complete, you will be put to work building infrastructure for later generations, i.e. clearing new fields when there is already more than enough food production, building furnaces before the ore is mined. There will be experts in many different fields, many of which will not be immediately useful, but since we are choosing from a large population whenever possible they will be physically fit people who can provide muscle power when it is needed, all will be trained to have basic knowledge of subjects like farming, basic engineering, brickmaking, etc. and everybody will have at least a couple of skills they are very good at, chosen for what is needed with some to spare - if the bean counters decide that the building projects planned for the first 20 years require at least 100 highly-skilled carpenters to supervise, they will make sure at least 300 of the people are skilled carpenters. Bring several experts in each of the fields of knowledge that are expected to be important later in the colonies development - at least one at any time will spend most of their waking hours recording their knowledge (perhaps in clay tablets) and teaching those of the younger generation when they arrive.

Not everyone is to be highly educated, though everybody will be expected to have some useful or potentially useful skills - I think a colony of 3000 college graduates, no matter how carefully they are screened, is the safest bet for a stable and highly rigid society. A good deal, maybe most, should be people of decidedly average intellect and ambition. If they wonder why they were chosen to come along with all these super-achievers and geniuses, tell them it was to provide genetic diversity. It won’t exactly be a lie.

We are going to want to bring as much information as we can. If this scenario permits us bringing books then some of the options below can be discarded, though I don’t think that really fits in with the concept of starting with nothing, so I’m going to assume we can’t bring anything but our bodies (kinda like the time travel in Terminator). In this case several of the people chosen to go back will be picked because they have eidetic memory or other similar exceptional memory traits (like those people who can recite entire volumes from memory) and they will be taught (or chosen because they know) important information. If there is other data that cannot be readily memorized accurately it will be compressed and tattooed in code and/or diagrams on the bodies of some (or all?) of the colonists. Upon arrival the process of transcribing this information from minds and skin to more durable media will begin immediately. If someone dies before their tattoos are copied their skin will be preserved until it can be copied.

The government will have one primary leader, with council of a dozen or two below him, each assigned to governing a certain project or aspect of life. There will be a constitution of sorts that has strict guidelines on what should be done under most foreseeable circumstances. Decisions on problems that were not foreseen must be agreed upon by 3/4 of the council, if 3/4 can’t agree the decision is made by the leader. The leader position will cycle through the various council members in a predetermined order, with a fairly short term (1 year perhaps). Public meetings will be held regularly, and a 3/4 vote can remove any council member from office, who will be replaced by the next one on the list of succession, which will include the entire original population, so even if 9/10 of the population is wiped out there will be no question who should be leading. The council must reach a unanimous decision to remove the leader, unless he clearly is trying to lead the colony in a way that is contradictory to the constitution and guidlelines.

All the laws will be pragmatic, written around the primary objective of maintaining the colonies existence and progress. Laws will prohibit damaging infrastructure, wasting food or resources, refusing to perform your assigned duties, refusing to contribute to the breeding program, and endangering yourself and others. Things will be hard enough on the people that we will not need laws prohibiting things that will not adversely effect the colony in one of the ways listed above. A wide variety of punishments will be used - removing privileges, corporal punishment, imprisonment, slavery. There will be no true death ‘penalty’, but those who have progressed all the way through the list of punishments to slavery and still refuse to contribute to the colony will be put to death as everybody has to (at least) carry their own weight and the colony cannot afford to have that drain on it’s resources. Those who show a pattern of causing serious damage to the colony and are therefore a threat will also be put to death - examples would be someone who murders or maims repeatedly, or who repeatedly and willfully damages important colony assets. We really want to minimize reducing our population more than necessary, though.

With this plan, I can see a fairly advanced and diverse society in a couple of hundred years, probably at an early industrial level with steam engines, firearms, and a fairly high standard of living for most people. By this time there will be a steady flow of people leaving the first settlement to work in new ones (probably at first exploiting important resources unavailable at the first site) or to set up self-sufficient homesteads in the wilderness. They will be able to expand much faster than they will - we don’t want them too scattered, most the population should remain in the original city. Once the first city is thoroughly established, perhaps other cities will be allowed to adopt their own independent governments though the advantages of being affiliated with the first and most powerful might make it unlikely for a while.

42

“I think a colony of 3000 college graduates, no matter how carefully they are screened, is the safest bet for a stable and highly rigid society.”

should have been

“I think a colony of 3000 college graduates, no matter how carefully they are screened, is NOT the safest bet for a stable and highly rigid society.”

43

Badtz Maru-

Your scenario would be thwarted by the food problem. There is no way a stationary city of 3000 could sustain itself in a hunter-gatherer lifestyle. They would quickly exhaust the food resources in their area.

Nor could they immediately commence existence as an agricultural society. You first have to clear fields, locate suitable plants, and spend years domesticating them into surplus-producing crops.

My gosh, if the Pilgrims couldn’t make it through the first winter without help, how will these people do it? The Pilgrims had the advantage of metal tools, livestock and seeds, which our colonists will not.

I say they’ll have to split up at first, or perish from starvation.

44

Sorry, Badtz, but among the many flowers of civilized development in the history of Earth, it seems to me that Nazi totalitarianism is an unfortunate candidate as a first priority.

Culture is what must be rebuilt first, since there aren’t three thousand people in the world with all the world’s knowledge among them, even counting on perfect recall for each person’s portion of the huge amount of lore needed. Three thousand adults is not the right choice. Eight hundred families is closer to what would work. You need children, and you need them right away.

The most important thing to develop after food and shelter is educational systems, and the cultural patterns that will make those systems the preeminent purpose of your new society. If this culture does not create an absolute dedication to educating it’s young at the expense of all other short term gain, it is soon to become a fishing village with a mythology of it’s God Like Ancestors, in the Heaven before the fall of Man.

There you are, in Mesopotamia. No horses, no cows, no chickens, no pigs, no goats, no sheep, no camels, no oats, no corn, no alfalfa, you can’t dance, and nobody has a plow. You aren’t going to need any farmers for a while. You need boy (and girl) scouts, and scout masters, and teachers, and hunters, and Mr. Wizard. You are not going to be digging any coal mines for a while. Flint knappers, and basket weavers are the rich and powerful, this week. If we are lucky, swimmers and divers will get rich next week. Why, if we all work together, we could be splitting planks and building houses in a couple of years. The coal mine can wait, let’s work on keeping us all fed and happy together, as close as we can manage.

Above all other things, you need some reason to keep your children interested in recreating the “glories of civilization” after you die. Most of us don’t do what we do every day, to advance the cause of the glory of civilization.

45

And how do 100,000 Phds placed on a pre-technology Earth cook and store food without the benefits of refridgerators, propane or electric stoves, microwaves or anything else other than open fire and cold rocks? Don’t forget immunizations, advanced disease care, and other benefits we receive from technology. Also, people will have to live in close proximity in order to create a new civilization. Modern sanitation won’t be available for a little while because they won’t have garbage trucks, septic tanks, sewer systems, etc.

If you get hurt, there’s no hospital and no advanced medicine or surgical equipment. So in other words, you cut your arm real bad, you get gangrene and die. You get an apendicitus, you die (can’t operate with a sharpened stick).

What about starvation? Our colonists may not be able to grow enough food the first couple years.

So collounsbury, I think you are absolutely correct. Mortality rates will be VERY high initially. They should start to taper off and stabalize as our citizens begin at least a rudimentary civilization.
As for the timeline?
Just my guesses based on absolutely no scientic data so tell me if this makes sense:

Year 0 - 100,000 people with all the knowlege of modern society placed on an Earth with no technology or infrastructure. They have no possessions other than the clothes on their back. This should be a large enough number to create good genetic diversity and a stable civilization. Not so large though that 99% die of starvation in the first month.

Year 1 - Created farms, basic wooden shelters, caveman tools. Some hunting. Basic governement and judician system based on knowledge of current governments. Maybe disperse into a couple of colonies efficient resource utilization. Domesticated animals for farming, transportation.

Year 5 - Basic metal working. Some mills and other constructions for increasing productivity. Keep in mind everything will take longer to build because: A) majority of time spent on life sustaining activities b) no advanced construction/mining equipment.

Year 10 - Frontier ‘Dances with Wolves’ style living. Maybe some advanced masonry structures. Mines for digging metal. If you have metal, you can construct some basic generators and wires to transmit the electricity. If you can make glass, you can create light bulbs.

Year 50 - Some knowledge starts to get lost. Probably have steam engines, industrial revolution style factories. If they found oil deposits, hopefully someone remembers how to make plastic. Could even have a simple airplane if an engine can be made light enough.

Year 100 - Manhatten project. Advanced plastics and electronics. Jet aircraft. etc.
It’s hard to say though. I did make a couple of assumptions:

  1. Everyone is there for the purpose of advancing society as quickly as possible. It could take much longer if people get complacent once civilization stabilizes.

  2. Effect of internal conflict. It’s hard to say if conflict would advance or hinder our civilization. WWII saw some of the greatest advances in technology (rocketry, jet aircraft, radar, nuclear power, etc). It also killed a large number of people and destroyed most of Europe.

  3. Starting population. Too small and there are not enough people to carry on the knowledge or build public works. Too many and you increase the chances of conflict, disease, etc.

  4. No ‘Dark Ages’, plagues, or other holocausts.
    Of course, they may not advance beyond wooden huts and simple iron tools for 200 years. By then, most advanced knowledge would be lost. The idea of cars and planes and atom bombs would be the stuff of myths and legends.

46

Remaining resolutely pessimistic.

Okay, first the food issue:

True, hunter gatherers probably had an easier life than early agriculturalists. They also faced higher mortality rates than modern folks, although apparently less disease than early settled folks for the various obvious reasons. Further, the issue of population density, a hunter gatherer lifestyle is not going to support a dense population needed to generate or sustain civilization. So this one fails on the logical contradictions.

To restate, in order to start work on an advanced civilization, you need population density — security for the specialists, communication needs, accumulation of surplus, even the control/government, planning and so forth that Badtz speaks of(*) requires density – nota bene this is assuming they are stuck with paleolithic tech of course. It is not an accident that state systems did not develop from hunter gatherer society so your culture building into tech building just is not going to work.

(*: Sorry but I don’t think the idea of a gov supported program works as the idea is staggeringly wasteful. Why send 3k folks to their deaths if you can equip them and succeed. Insofar as books are allowed in this scenario there seems no reason to exclude tools other than for the hypothetical, but the hypothetical doesn’t make much sense in a strict sense, less so if we say on one hand Gov support is extensive, on the other hand, they get nothing.)

I don’t see Badzt rigid structure, although a good idea, being able to survive the requirements of a hunter gatherer pattern of life.

Okay, so leaving this idea aside, we have to address the issue of domestication. The OP is advised to consult Jared Diamond’s Guns Germs and Steel mentioned above. Domestication is not easy. In re plant domestication, even the more prime candidates, say in a hypothetical pre- Man Middle East, will take substantial time to domesticate and increase yields. In the meantime our little group of 3k individuals or whatever has to live within H-G constraints in re pop density, security. As they say in Egypt, mayenfash. Don’t work.

Even with modern knowledge, and of course a pre-existing idea of which plants to go for, breeding will take time. Further, given that they will have to (a) be spread out bec of space limitations per H-G limits (b) on the move, further extending and complicating the process. Animal domestication is also something which will take time, even knowing the target animals. Further, all this requires, for the kind of maximal efficiency the “optimists” require, a degree of sustained and concentrated effort (physically speaking as well as in terms of social maintenance) that a H-G pattern of survival will not necessarily work with. I do not think it is reasonable to assume any domestication in the first colonists’ lifetimes. Ergo, I see them locked into H-G level of surplus for a while.

Finally, there is once more the disease and parasites issue. (As in, “Duchamps died today, that spiny thing’s wound went septic as you know…”) As spoke suggests, scavenging is likely to be an early requirement, and certainly is documentable feature of early man. Excellent route to exposure to pathogens. In combination with elevated risk — predators, even herbivores once they recognize man as a predator — mortality will be elevated and tend to “poke holes” in the human capital/knowledge base. Especially in the early part of the learning curve (even presuming some training through reconstructed paleolithic hunting techniques.) This will lead to a deterioration over time.

Add to this that assuming we have hunter gatherer lifestyle, the group will have to be fragmented, we have poor institutional support for inter-generational as well as inter-group transmission of the full body of knowledge. Again, a scenario for long term, even medium term deterioration in their knowledge base — of course there is the further issue of the storage and maintenance of the books. H-G societies are scarce on the material culture front for very real reasons, expensive in terms of resources, time commitments and their nomadic constraints.

Finally, another issue which occurred to me. That is the appropriateness of the knowledge base. Knowing a Bessemer furnace is one thing, knowing how to properly fire a clay wood fired furnace on a hit and miss smelting operation using early metallurgical techniques is quite another knowledge set. The same goes for the whole range of science.

In very large part, much of the 21st century knowledge base will be utterly useless without the full technological infrastructure to support it. Without a good tool set to begin with, these guys will be facing a challenge recreating neolithic culture, let alone copper age, let alone early iron age culture.

Theoretical reconstructions will have to be field tested in a live environment, which for better or worse will be inherently more hostile and less predictable – assuming of course that these folks are going in cold (does it make any sense otherwise?) Facing extinct creatures and plants of unknown behavior/properties, e.g. “Lost Rogers, Abdullah and Mbeki today. They got smooshed. Why?! Well, how were we to know [insert megafauna X here] are highly territorial and largely immune to our spears?”. Or “Muhammed died today. God damn it Ouali, why did you let him eat [insert extinct domestic precursor here]? Well, I ain’t got no freakin’ lab to know…”

Add to this risks, definite mortality issues --disease, injury— I see these 3k or whatever number of folks more likely failing than not, if succeeding is defined not as survival per se but rapidly rebuilding a technological culture. And of course, I have utterly abstracted away from the issue of post-first generation social decomposition.

The equation of course changes rapidly if we throw them a bone and give them tools, seeds and perhaps some domestic animals.

In re msmith time frame, I think you need to revise the farming part if these guys don’t have seeds and domesticates with them, the process, optimistically will take years. And result in deaths. (Nice horsey <stomp, kick, broken arm, tamer crippled>)

47

Agreed about mortality. Recall how pandemics in late 19th century America wiped out entire communities. Also consider the influenza epidemic of 1919, HIV today, Hep C, tuberculosis, small pox, typhoid, etc. etc. Without immunity, our community would be decimated. Life would become Darwinian. Fear would dictate daily transactions. Hardly the climate for rapid technological progress or enlightenment.

Without the requisite political culture and command and control structure, the rigors of early civilization would give rise to charismatic leaders with Utopian visions who would inevitably attract large followings of desperate people who would act collectively to wrest control. Internal warfare would tear at our community, and some groups would be savagely exhiled into the wilderness–or be killed as a precautionary measure.

While some primitive societies would attempt to rebuild civilization, others would narrowly specialize in advanced warfare and hone their military prowess to gain strategic advantage. Primitive biological or chemical warfare could destroy without defense.

Professorial types with dreams of teaching the next generation would be pressed into primitive Manhattan Projects, thus squandering their specialized knowledge from present-day Earth. Only knowledge in book form would survive. Wars between communities competing for scarce valuable resouces and territorial advantage would inevitably arise. Successful raiding parties would target and destroy their adversaries books and centers of learning. Soon, even the memory of these technological achievements would fade.

Result? Civilization lost.

48

My timeline:

Founding Population, 1000.

Year 1:
Attempted application of theoretical stone age technology. Early successes taper off. Accidental mortality high from animal and plant encounters as well as accidents in attempted technology.

Year 5:
Acclimatization to the situation is complete, however mortality remains high from predatation and unpreventable accidents. Further, trial and error in re population density versus maintaining communications has led to several famine incidents. Loss of disease/injury disable members. Domestication efforts continue but are slow due to unforseen variables. Overcommitment of resources to marginal projects such as metals location and possible smelting further inhibits progress.

Year 10:
Group dispersal has become problematic with several groups lost from contact. Further, personality/group differences have created cold-war situation between several groups. Break down in cooperation, plus continued elevated mortality have knocked known population size down to roughly half of original, not including new births. However, infant mortality is very high and not yet at replacement levels. First signs of results from plant domestication. So far animal domestication miserable failure as mobile lifestyle has not allowed coherent program nor feeding capacity for beasts of burden. Possible canine semi-domestication but results in cost-benefit (dog bite deaths) unclear.

Year 20:
Declining groups lose contact. Remaining groups give up on technological dreams and concentrate on establishing working hunter gatherer society as first native generation begins work on second native generation. Issues of inbreeding will arise.

End of Project.

I think a more optimistic but realistic scenario doubles this at best.

49

I think the problem of disease is being overstated. I don’t see communicable disease as a problem in the forseeable future. Plagues tend to be the product of overcrowding, which will certainly not be a problem for our colonists. Furthermore, until you manage to get domesticated livestock, there will be no consistent reservoir for disease between epidemics.

Also, we would enter the experiment having an understanding of antibiotics which our primitive forebears did not. We could culture some penicillen from wild grains if necessary. That wouldn’t help with viral infections of course, but then, we would know in advance how to use a smallpox blister from an infected person to innoculate an uninfected individual.

Soap is easy to make, so we could also maintain hygiene at a level our ancestors could not. We also have an understanding of the importance of proper waste management.

Our colonists might even be able to perform simple surgeries. It is possible to create flint shards as sharp as any scalpel. Our colonists might, for example, be able to repair a compound fracture and stave off infection of the wound. Heck, an appendectomy might not be out of the question.

Our colonists would have a solid understanding of pre- and post-natal care, which should result in low infant mortality rates (at least low for a primitive society).

I see domestication of animals as being quicker and simpler than domestication of crops. Our group could become a society of herders before they settle down into farming. (Wasn’t that the progression in the Fertile Crescent?) Domesticated dogs would be useful in herding endeavors.

50

Holy cow, what a good thread.

If we said it took 12,000 years for the Aztec from “the crossing” to the civilization they enjoyed in SA, what advantages would modern people have over the Aztec to establish the same in less time? And then to the epitome: dry wall, TV and so on? (Dry wall?)

Would the books really be enough to insure that the same decisions were made and paths taken?

Since these folks are going to be walking, where would they have been set down to start their new lives?

Seems to me that there would be too many people to feed right off the bat and communication systems wouldn’t be up fast enough to make up for the distances the groups would have to be apart to live off the land.

15,000 years if they make it at all!

Jois

51

I don’t, by myself. See below.

Depends, of course some diseases will be imported with the colonists.

Quite true, unless they try for settlement too soon.
I think Jois is in the ballpark.

True again, to an extent, however I have concentrated on pathogens in the environment.

But with an exceedingly limited ability to produce them.

Culture penicillin? With what materials?

Not response to most other diseases. What are they going to do about malaria? Sleeping sickness if present. Other diseases. Parasites. Having lived in a tropical to sub-tropical environment, I have become quite aware of these nasty little fuckers. Water is both a friend and an enemy.

You usually have to render animals to do so. Infrastructure. Time committment, resources. Not easy on a H-G schedule.

Perhaps, however nowhere near modern levels. Infection will be a serious problem.

True, but also limited resources. It will cut down mortality, but mortality will remain elevated.

To an extent. However, problems with infection will remain and many wounds/injuries will be either crippling or fatal.

Lower than w/o but nonetheless high.

Quicker, possibly yes. Simpler, maybe, but higher risk. Death and injuries.

But recall the time frame may or may not be compressible into one generation.

52

Collounsbury wrote:

Penicillin is derived from a naturally ocurring wheat mold, is it not? Find some wild grain, grind it to make a cracker, moisten cracker and wait!

53

While pnicillin can be derived from grain mold, you’ve got a number of problems here, including effective concetrations. I’m not informed enough off the top of my head to know what sort of potency our ground up mold might get, but I am relatively positive you’re not in pharmaceuticals league by far. We still have a serious disease problem.

54

Hiya, msmith357. Nice to see someone agreeing with me on the short end of the timeline. Personally, I think that any guess in the range of “thousands of years” is just completely misunderstanding the one previous experiment we have along these lines; i.e., recorded history. Think about it: How much of our social and cultural development, worldwide, has come in the last 500 years? How much of our technological development in the last 200? How much of present high standard of living has been specifically because of that technological development? In all three cases, it’s a pretty high fraction. Hell, recorded history is a matter of a “few thousand” years, and that’s with monumental cock-ups like the sacking of Rome (or the scrapping of the Chinese exploratory ships) mixed in.

Our theoretical group can certainly do better: they will have knowledge of technology, knowledge of history, and knowledge of governace and project management. I do have to agree that the first 5 years or so are going to be nothing but people fighting, hard, for survival and stability; likewise I agree that in practical terms the risk of the whole colony dying frozen o the metaphorical hillside is pretty high. However, if we assume that we’re talking about a group that gets past that (note emphasis), we’re talking about a group that has already met the single challenge that they’re least equipped for. Any group that gets past that will find resource exploitation and technology development to be tough but doable. I think 20 years (possibly 30 on the outside) is a purely reasonable figure; I also think that, even with serious problems, 200 years is the absolute high boundary, assuming that the desire for technological advancement survives along with the later generations.

55

Let me expand on the disease element. All of the following diseases/disorders will afflict our community–without the development of effective treatment for years or decades:

HIV, HBV and HCV (Hepatitis B and C), tuberculosis, syphillis (at near-record levels presently), as well as heart disease, cancers, mental illness, and more.

Regarding the first few, how to tell who is infected? How to prevent transmission? How to treat? Several of these are asymptomatic for long periods. Consider the central African model for HIV/AIDS: no detection, no prevention, no treatment.

56

Let me expand on the disease element. All of the following diseases/disorders will afflict our community–without the development of effective treatment for years or decades:

HIV, HBV and HCV (Hepatitis B and C), tuberculosis, syphillis (at near-record levels presently), as well as heart disease, cancers, mental illness, and more.

Regarding the first few, how to tell who is infected? How to prevent transmission? How to treat? Several of these are asymptomatic for long periods. Consider the central Africa model for HIV/AIDS: no detection, no prevention, no treatment.

57

Makes sense to me. You need to start off with a big population though. 3000 people wouldn’t be enough manpower to build up the civilization before knowledge was lost.

If you had 100,000 people all scattered in little colonies, they could probably do it in a couple hundred years. Figure that they could build up a civilization to the level of the American colonies within 20 years. What did they have? Wooden houses, domesticated farm animals (still kind of a wildcard), crappy doctors (I mean they cured gunshot wounds by cutting off the leg for Christs sake!), some mills, Ye Old Blacksmith’s shop. And our colonists already know how everything works. At the very least, they will know that airplanes, cars, and everything else ARE possible.

Even if all the knowledge was forgotten, it only took 450 years to go from Columbus ‘discovering’ America to man landing on the moon. (Or did it? :)).

Here’s the problem though. Many advances were shaped by historical forces. Without the pressure to advance, the colonists may revert to another dark age. Also, look at countries in Asia. Many of them are still very backward technologically, and they were civilized BEFORE the europeans.

So it could take anywhere from 50 years to never.

58

S.M. Stirling covers this basic scenario in his “Island In The Sea Of Time” trilogy.

By the standards of the OP, those folks may as well jump off a cliff and end it quick. Unless they were volunteers, shock alone would drive enough people to suicide that the society would have significant gaps in it’s knowledge base.

10,000,000 years? The climate wouldn’t even necessarily be the same. Plants? Different. Similar, perhaps, maybe even identifiably so, but different.

H-G societies are also limited by food preservation techniques. I suppose a primitive smokehouse could be constructed to make jerkey, though.

Exposure would be a problem, too. Standard 20th century clothes (unless the OP posits stripping our unlucky band of survivors buck nekkid before tossing them out of the WayBack Machine) would rapidly wear out living totally in the rough. If our folks have specialty survival clothing, they might stand a chance of surviving the elements.

Without specialty clothing, our people would quickly be wearing furs, until racks could be constructed and enough tannin could be procured for curing leather. Cured leather’s tougher than skins, but still no great shakes for a nomadic H-G society.

I don’t think they stand a chance; basic survival would take precedent for too long; specialized knowledge would quickly be lost, and the subsequent generations are too busy learning the basics of successful agriculture and animal husbandry to worry about molecular biology.

We stand on the shoulders of giants, even rather boring and mundane farmer giants.

59

A fascinating discussion.

No, I don’t think the basic outlook for this group has changed. Maybe this colony won’t totally disappear, but what would be left after a few generations would be pitiable.

Disease and medical care is going to be a huge problem, Collounsbury has it right there. Even if the environment is clean, people will bring their own germs with them. Plenty of disease vectors will exist - mice/rats, insects, etc. Some posts have mentioned making penicillin and other drugs as if they were simple recipes that anyone could whip up in their kitchen. It ain’t that easy, folks. Think thermometers, petri dishes, test tubes, microscopes and sterilizers.

Surgery? Can you manufacture disinfectants, anesthetics? Needles and thread for stitches? Pain relievers? For most of the 1800’s, a trip to the hospital was not much more than a precursor to the funeral home.

Posts have mentioned the tremendous advances that have been made in our present civilization in a few hundred years. This has only been possible because each succeeding generation had the infrastructure of the previous one to build on. Not just the knowledge, but the physical materials and tools were available. I still think that the lack of tools and hardware specified in the OP alone dooms this group.

I’ve also been considering the size of this colony. It’s staggering to think of all of the little things that will no longer be present that normally come into any area from trade with others, or are manufactured in regions that have skills/resources that ours will lack. Such simple things, too - cloth, paper, a million little things that we take for granted. I am under the impression that most colonies, even in our relative recent past (1600-1800), survived only by support from outside of one form or another - from the mother country or trade with the local natives.

The social dimension is also an interesting one. It seems desirable at first glance to have this group composed of the best and brightest - doctors, engineers, all sorts of high IQ types. Probably a big mistake. A sprinkling would be fine, but the more that I think about it, you don’t need the people who can calculate the dynamics of flow through a piping system, you want people who can build and install a piping system. The physical labor involved in this colony is going to be immense - the real need is for blue collar types rather than white collar.

Nope, I’m afraid I won’t be buying a ticket for this excursion.

60

Disinefectant and anaesthesia could both be provided fairly easily by alcohol - I imagine a pottery still would be doable fairly early. A lot of the danger in surgery in the past was due to their total lack of knowledge of germ theory. Once a people know that keeping wounds very clean is important, that people with certain diseases should be isolated, and other medical ‘common sense’ (to modern man), that knowledge is not going to die out easily. Our progress was slowed greatly by ignorance, if you can set up some kind of data preserving social apparatus we would advance much faster IF that society can be kept stable.

My plan I provided for 3000 people only relies on the HG lifestyle for the first few years, I know that the local wildlife would be greatly diminished very quickly - but I think you could get a lot done before people had to farm (like preparing for farming). If your typical hunter gatherer only had to work 3 hours a day to feed himself, then one organized hunter gatherer could work 9 hours a day and feed himself, plus two guys who spend all day building houses, animal pens, irrigation ditches, fishing boats…they might have to range widely, but with modern meat preservation techniques (using smoke and sea salt) they could get the food to the people building the infrastructure. I think the first two generations would be motivated enough to work harder than necessary to survive instead of spreading out and losing their purpose, because they would know what can be done if people work together. In the past, people had to try out different ways of doing things before hitting on the combinations that could lead to civilization, we already know what it would take.

I don’t think that mankind would die out if we transported a few thousand back in time. Even without careful planning and if the colonists were not motivated to work towards their goals, they would probably survive as hunter-gatherers in reduced numbers, though so much knowledge was lost that rebuilding civilization would take almost as long as building it initially.