How long will life on this planet be possible for in your estimation?

How long will it be before everything just gets burnt to a frazzle?

Why? What have you heard?

By the Sun? A few billion years.

By global warming? Maybe 50, 100 years if we don’t reverse the trend.

Global warming will not wipe out life on this planet.

Ttil God decides we done.

I didn’t mean to imply that it would. The OP was asking how long until things got ‘burnt to a frazzle’. Didn’t know if they meant by global warming or by the last gasp of our dying Sun.

There have been several mass extinctions in Earth’s history. Life has always survived in some form and come back again.Global warming or nuclear war won’t make Earth lifeless. Many species will go extinct. Perhaps several phyla, classes and orders will be lost. But something always survives, and millions of years later there are new life forms.

Life on Earth shall exist until the Sun expands into a Red Giant.

As others have said, human global warming and the rest of human-caused ecological damage past and future won’t matter much to the biosphere; we can damage a lot of it, and change the rest. But we can’t kill it; we’re just not good (bad) enough.

This paragraph from wiki is a decent summary and says about 1 billion years for complex life and at most 2.8B for everything else: Extinction event # Future biosphere extinction/sterilization - Wikipedia.

More details at Future of Earth # Climate Impact - Wikipedia and subsequent sections. The red giant phase of the Sun’s evolution is the climax, but the planet will already be sterile for a couple billion years before that gets underway.

As always, the Sun’s evolution represents an upper bound on the biosphere’s long term survival. Some other cataclysm could come along at any time, including later today, and wipe the place clean. The two articles I cited provide plenty of fully thought-through discussion the OP might find interesting.

As a matter of SDMB, I don’t think this topic is much of a debate.

Some sort of life? A few billion years unless something really large hits the planet sooner.

Human life? Hard to tell. We might or might not survive long enough to evolve into something else. What’s the usual run for a mammalian species, a few million? though depending on the definition of “human” we’ve already had a chunk of that. And I think our chances of having descendents are a lot better if we make it to that something-else sooner rather than later. (I don’t mean moving into computers. I mean becoming better at getting along with each other, less vulnerable to people who want to take power by attacking others, and better at long-range thinking about the consequences of our actions.)

This specific civilization in more or less its current form? I’d give it twenty years to a century at the outside; and I don’t know that we’ll make the century unless the civilization’s already changed quite a bit.

That would do it. Although there’s a small possibility that a passing star / black hole / rogue planet or something of that sort knocks Earth out of orbit. In which case surface life is done for, but stuff living at the bottom of the ocean in hydrothermal vents might end up going for trillions of years (or more?, I have no idea how long it would take for Earth to cool sufficiently in that scenario for the mantle to solidify) rather than just a few billion.

ETA: That might make for an interesting sci-fi scenario. Earth gets knocked lose into intergalactic space. Life on the ocean floor survives. Trillions of years from now the planet gets captured by a star in some other galaxy. Intelligent life again evolves as the planet thaws. And from there who knows? :crazy_face:

My understanding is that the oceans will evaporate and boil long before that due to increasing solar luminosity. This will create a runaway greenhouse effect like occurred on Venus, with Venus-like conditions. This will be enough to sterilize the planet.

From memory, the time frame for the expansion of the Sun into a red giant is around 5 billion years from now, but the oceans will boil around 1 billion years from now.

There is some research that suggests that the rate that water is being subducted into the mantle is now faster than the rate that water is being re-released by volcanoes and that the oceans will dry out on a similar timeframe.

Seriously, nobody will frazzle if my wife has anything to say about it. She has a separate air conditioner for the bedroom. In winter. In Upstate New York. She’s a Project Manager. Put her in charge. I guarantee the survival of the Earth.

Need answer fast?

Seems like humans would be long gone by the time the oceans boil.

You guys are all so pessimistic.

All these estimations presume no human intervention. But i don’t think we’re all that easily gotten rid of. I would guess that humans will be around to intervene for a very, very long time.

Living on a planet at the bottom of a big gravity well may not be particularly practical, or how the majority of humanity will exist a millenia for now, but out of sentimentality we might intervene and keep Earth habitable long term.

Or our descendants may not feel any sentimental attachment to Earth at all, and leave it to be destroyed.

Humans are 0.00000001% of life on this planet. The question asked about life, not humans.

Well I don’t know about that. If we actually set that as a goal and worked specifically toward it, there might be a decent chance humans could actually accomplish it. But we probably can’t do it without a lot of specific and intentional effort in that direction.

Human intervention is the cause of our pessimism.

https://u4d2z7k9.rocketcdn.me/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Co2-levels-historic.jpg

It appears to be an almost certainty that within the next 2 million years earth will have insufficient levels of CO2 to sustain plant life. Man can only attempt to keep that in balance for so long.