Hmmm…
As “the only superpower”? Not long. Heck, we haven’t been THAT for that much time.
As a Big Shot that has to be on board if you want anything to get done? Best part of this century.
As the current organization known as the US of A under the extant constitution and legal structure? Who knows, maybe before or after that prior time-frame – as said before, who the heck expected it to last this long. And who the heck expected the USSR to collapse in 1990.
Surely Americans will remain an important nationality in the world longer than however long the government stays powerful militarily or economically.
Anything further is wild speculation. It may happen that there comes to pass a reshuffling of world economy, political organization and social structures that nation-states have to become radically redefined. It may happen “America” goes into a situation similar to China or India, where you have alternate Dark and Golden ages throughout centuries with various economic and political policies and organizations.
When you get to the 500+year time scale, you are delving into a realm where what you have is a historic continuity, but the actual institutions and even the underlying culture have changed significantly. Is the French Republic = the Louis’s France = Charlemagne’s empire = the Merovingian Kingdom = Gaul?
To Susanann and those others who says the U.S. will last only 20 more years; I will bet each one of you 1000 euros (to guard against a collapse of the US buck, see) in 2003 value, that the United States will still exist in its current form on January 1, 2024.
No… I’ll give you ten to one odds. Your 1000 euros against my 10,000 euros. Would you like to take my bet? Please do. I could use a few thousand bucks in 2024.
The current state of affairs (the economy, national security, etc.) in the U.S., while a bit disconcerting, certainly doesn’t imply any impending anarchy or civil wars (tee hee). Methinks some previous posters may be of the survivalist/White supremacist ilk. While I agree with Zuma to a point I’ll go out on a limb and say the U.S. will exist as long as life exists on Earth.
Define “rapidly” and “overpopulated”. Net pop growth from 1990 to 2000 was approximately 13%. Averaging what, 1.3% per year? Immigration policy is part of a general public policy that looks to cover projected deficits in human capital, not the political “let 'em all in” decision you seem to believe. Expect major attrition in the next few decades.
Also, I’ll take the bait on your flawed logic:
(a) If both major parties, and the professional thinkers they hire, want to give citizenship to “10 million illegals”, maybe you should rethink your position.
(b) If these 10 million illegals are granted citizenship, they’re no longer illegal. Happy day for you.
(a) U.S. debt is a relatively small percentage of national income. Inflationary effects of our public debt are minimal.
(b) Budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to decline over the next few years. At its current 4.2%, it’s more than it should be but still reasonably below peak.
5. There is no factual basis for your claim that the US military has been, or will continue to be, in decline.
I believe the OP is simply trying to say how long with the US Government last before it is destroyed or dissolved?
This is not to say it cannot change. The US constitution is a dynamic evolving foundation for government. We could decide to radically alter it, alter the structure of government, the branches, the balance of power, but as long as we did so using the guidelines in the constitution, that would still be a continuance of the United States.
In any case, on to my answer…I know you are all waited with bated breadth.
How long until the US Government collapses and is replaced by a totally new government?
I tend to be strangely optimistic about this.
The only thing that I think could destroy the US government is a violent disaster such as War or a Meteor impact.
Another risk is that the US slowly starts to erode away at civil liberties and fundamental rights in the name of some greater good that everyone buys into…such as security from Terrorism. I think it is conceivable that the US devolve into a police state…which would then become immediately vulnerable to rebellion. But as long as the populace has the power to replace the government simply by voting, the Union will be relatively safe.
My prediction:
I give 10 to 1 odds that the US survives indefinately. Easily another 50 years. After that human life is going to be so different it is very hard to make a meaningful guess.
Well, when we hit the singularity all bets are off. But I predict the United States will survive at least until the invention of strong AI and the resulting technological singularity. After that there’s no telling what will happen, we could all be exterminated by SkyNet, or have no more need for such silly frivolities as “nationality” or “countries”.
Over here! I’ll give you guys the same bet with 10,000 to 1 odds.
20 years. That is just about the stupidest thing I’ve heard on this board in months.
The US’s power and influence in the world is still on the rise. I think we’re free and clear for at least 100 years or more. Unless there is a global castrophe (either natural or man-made) in which the rest of the world goes down with us. We’ve been a world power for at least 100 years. No reason we can’t at least match that time period.
“At what point shall we expect the danger? By what means shall we fortify against it? Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the ocean and crush us at a blow? Never! All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth…could not by force. take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge in a trial of a thousand years…If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen,we must live through all time, or die by suicide”
ABRAHAM LINCOLN
January 27 1838
This gentleman summed it up to a ‘T’
Unlike all other ‘empires’ The United States will never allow itself to be subjugated by any other…you are to strong and proud a nation to permit that, you fought for what you have and by God you will fight to keep it for if you do surrender your sovereignty you betray all those brave men who have over the centuries fought to keep it. Those men who lie still in the soil of many distant lands and those men who were prepared to lie with them in defence of your country.
The USA is far stronger, your military is invincible,you are the only self sufficient country on this Earth, you will never go under.
As a Briton permit me to now bang my own drum,We are a small nation and have not the resources of the USA, BUT we also will never permit our land to be beneath the boot of an invader.
We are slow to anger but when angered we are evil bastards, when our country and all we love is threatened we fight and don’t give a shit about world opinion, we go in all guns blazing and teeth bared and if we have to go it alone then go it alone we will.
In my opinion the USA is second only to my country as being the finest on Gods good earth and He will NEVER permit, no matter what the cost, for the USA to go down.
Regardless of the ups and downs of the relationship between the US and the other industrialized nations, the truth is that we form a pretty potent alliance. The US doesn’t have an empire. We, along with Europe, Japan, and the rest of the developed world have interconnected economies and similar political philosophies. We may forge closer ties in the future, but each member of this community of nations is pretty much assured that the others will let it go about its business and come to its aid in times of need.
And I believe that most of the developing nations aspire to be part of that community. There are, of course, the few insular countries out there, but that is not a winning strategy in the long run.
Many Americans do not understand this and are supporting the unilateralist policies of this government which would be disastrous in the long run. The strength of the USA is , as you say, in having friends who think alike and will help when needed. The idea that the USA can confront the rest of the world is ridiculous and would surely lead to its downfall in short time.
Me thinks the USA has a destiny all its own. And if we are not careful we may fall headlong into it’s downward spiralling implosion of self destruction. Such an ego can only live out it’s warped dreams and beliefs for so long. Even David lay suffering in the end whilst his queen placed the ring of power upon an illegitimate sons finger. And David’s empire was vast and cruel yet, rich with devotion. He slew Goliath but lost his mind to his self passions.
All empires must fall, this is history in truth afterall.
SHANTI: You talk utter and absolute drivel, about the only thing that made sense in your post was the fact that America has a destiny all its own but then again this is true of everyone and every country.
WTF David and Goliath have to do with it is anyones guess and what are these warped dreams and beliefs you babble about?
All empires must fall? really?
Don’t you mean all past empires HAVE fallen, the ‘empire’ which the USA has at the moment is non-existant inasmuch as she does not impose her will upon foreign nations without just cause unlike the empire which my own country once had.
You should be grateful that the USA is what she is and not what you perceive her to be.
David and George have much in common and not dribble as you would suggest.
David lived his life through his ego state (and the incident with Goliath was a short event that happened before he was king) and was unable to make ruling decisions based on un biased thruth and the real needs of the people. This is similar to George W. His ego will let him down someday and it will take the ‘empire’ with him.
I have no gratitude for the USA, not being an american. I see a man who is driven by his own ego. A man who can’t see past his male ego. A man who thinks that war is surely the only answer. Conquer those who will not bend to the will of the US.
ha !!! the US is the biggest laugh on the planet.
And no I mean
All empires must fall. And the USA will be no exception, it has already has it’s nervous breakdown. It’s a shame you can’t see what the rest of the world does.
Am I to assume that you were around at the time of David and are therefore able to compare with 100% accuracy both him and GWB…don’t be so bloody silly.
You have no gratitude because you are not American, well nor am I but by God I have gratitude by the bucket full and if you could but see further than the end of your nose and beyond you would realise that the whole world owes a great debt to the USA.
The simple fact of the matter is that you are anti-American and I am not.
Not without “just cause”? Hmmm. That misght need to be proven.
Just cause to the US. Usually the world doesn’t disagree, they just disagree that we should go to war over such things like genocide, WMD proliferation, support for terrorism, etc. There has not yet been a war that we’ve been involved in where other countries rose up to defend the regime we were attacking. It’s not like we are picking off the good guys here like Canada and France. The US only takes on the scum of the Earth. Whether or not you think war is the right answer for that is another discussion, but there is no doubt that there is just cause for every one of our military actions. In every case, we faced a truly evil regime.
Nah, you got it all wrong pal. I’m not anti anything except war.
I dn’t believe that Bush is doing a great job and that is all, that the US has become an empire and that it too shall fall, just as those in the past have fallen (and as did David’s)
“May your vitory be as glorious as your cause is justifed”
