After brexit I have to wonder if the EU can survive many more defections. From an outsider perspective there seems to be a few countries that keep it together and an exit of say Germany or France at this point may cause the rest of the alliance to fall apart although the exit of Greece, Portugal, and/or Ireland may actually strengthen the EU.
Defection?
Either your language skills or political acumen could use a little sharpening …
So could your punctuation.
It was successful with the original six:
So it could lose a lot of members and still be successful.
The largest function of any European Community is keeping Germany and France from each others throats.
Anything after that is pure gravy.
I think it depends on what follows Brexit. A successful North Sea Trade Area - UK, Iceland, and Norway - might attract other Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands. Or there might be a North Atlantic Free Trade Area with the UK, Iceland, Canada, Bermuda, and some of the Caribbean countries, being based off the British Commonwealth plus Iceland.
One of the options that is being floated for the UK is joining EFTA (European Free Trade Association). Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein are also part of the EEA (European Economic Area), whereas the fourth EFTA member, Switzerland, has its own separate treaty with the EU. People tend to focus only on the EU, but there’s actually three trade associations floating around (EU, EFTA and EEA) plus those other structures affecting things which normally get ascribed to the EU but which aren’t part of it.
It’s as if we’ve moved from conquest to basket-weaving…
The thing is, though, EFTA has become, and the EEA always was, ancillary to the EU. The principal attraction of joining either EFTA or the EEA is the relationship that it gives you with the EU and its member states. Which has the ironic consequence that, the more states leave the EU for EFTA or the EEA, the less advantage there is to participating in EFTA or the EEA.
That’s not to say that one or other (or both) of them might not become an entity with significant value independent of any connection with the EU. You can certainly have a free trade area or a customs union that falls short of being a single market, and in particular that doesn’t have a free market in labour. But there needs to be a clear and coherent vision of what that is, plus a degree of popular support for that vision. And at this point we’re just not seeing that even within the UK alone, never mind within a range of countries that might make up such a union.
Germany has e50 billion trade surplus with the UK - Merkel blew it almost as much as Cameron (by offering so little in terms of concessions).
Germany will - eventually - find a way to accommodate the UK sufficiently on freedom of movement.
There is very little that isn’t on the table at this point, not that any of it will reach our ears for some while.
Agreed with usedtobe, as long as there’s an Eurozone made of France and Germany there’s a EU. The rest of us are just there for completion’s sake.
Defections or not, the EU has to change or its fucked. Euro leaders in the last decade have been so inept; they make the class of 1914 look like Metternich.
God yeah. It’s like a company that’s kept expanding for expansion’s sake. At some point you need to stop and say “ok, does anybody remember what the fuck is it we’re actually supposed to be making?”
Inept and arrogant, imo.
Those “qualities’” are usually found together IME.
It’s not like the EU is an actual political unit. There’s an unelected Council that discusses mostly trade regulations and an elected Parliament that does- well, nothing much. Most other decisions fall into the regular governments of each country, whose degrees of ineptitude vary.
Which is why I said Euro leaders, not specifically the EU. Although the EU has not exactly covered itself in glory as an institution since 2008.
So in your opinion if either Germany or France leave the EU has failed?
Sure- there can still be a free trade zone and somesuch between all the countries involved (including the UK), but a sort of political continent-wide union? That’s done.