The title says it all. For whatever hypothetical reason, the population of the 50 U.S. states (census.gov is saying an estimated population of about 303,194,069 at the time of posting) needs to be evacuated away from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii.
Rabid cows are on the loose, but they’ll stop roaming at our international borders, so we need to get out ASAP. We’ll also assume that passports, visas, etc. are not required – the rest of the world identifies our need to escape from our bovine predators and is willing to take anyone with no documentation. Just go with it.
Where we all go is anyone’s guess. For illustrative purposes, let’s say that everyone has the option of where to go – those near borders can walk into Canada or Mexico, you can fly, sail, or drive. No teleporting. You just have to be out of the boundaries of the 50 states (and D.C. – no cramming everyone onto the Mall).
Using airplanes, cars, boats – anything realistic – how quickly can this be done?
(In case you were wondering, this ridiculous idea came about after watching an episode of Star Trek.)
How ordered are things? Mass panic free-for-all, or genteel turn taking? Security (baggage checks, ID questions, etc) still as stringent? How are things being paid for – do airline ticket prices skyrocket? Is American currency still valid? How much stuff are people taking – just enough to keep junior fed for a day, week, month; fleeing with just the Velvetteen Rabbit or the entire Skin Horse Collectible Set?
I’d say that if it’s anything short of mass hypnosis with a controlling consciousness, there’s little chance of anything approaching an ordered, complete evacuation – way too many places for hysteria and complete breakdown.
(This cynicism is probably due to seeing “coastal evacuation route” signs in Staten Island along routes that were deathly clogged with traffic on GOOD days.)
Even with everybody proceeding in an orderly fashion, with zero border restrictions, it would take a minimum of several weeks to seriously dent the US population. The roads would be total gridlock, and walking would take orders of magnitude longer. We don’t have the air transport to move even a minute fraction of the people in the center of the country, so they would have to hoof it. OK, make that several months.
Realistically - you’d never get the job done. Just consider the number of folks who, for whatever reason (there were many) who remained on the Gulf coast during Katrina.
**How quickly could the entire U.S. population be evacuated? **
I thought they were already pretty vacuous.
(d&r)
Seriously, though, I doubt you could get an answer. Will extra flights be laid on, so all airports are running to capacity? Will all road borders be opened and security procedures lifted? Will people evacuate in a sedate and orderly manner? (Will they hell!)
Having seen the vast difference in the South Carolina coast evacuating for a hurricane, where they can get the lanes reversed in I think 30 minutes, and Houston evacuating, where they stuck their thumbs up their butts and blew up some old people, I’d say it clearly depends on how much planning has gone into this and if anybody has ever practiced it. (Obviously, at this point, they have probably not.)
If both lanes of I35 were reversed, I bet I could cover the 236 miles to Nuevo Laredo in less than a week. Thats assuming the numbnuts from San Antonio keep their collective asses in gear. If those fuckers from Dallas start getting impatient, I’ll have to start kicking ass though.
Do you mean depopulate the entire country? Assuming everybody cooperated, I would guess it would take years. There aren’t enough boats and planes to move 300 million people in less than that.
Though it hasn’t been fully tested in a pending disaster, Houston has installed procedures for reversing lanes on the outbound freeways. On I-10 (Katy Freeway), there is a huge gate and many signs indicating “contra-flow” lanes between Brookshire and Sealy. I don’t know if the lanes are to stay reversed all the way to San Antonio, but at least on the west side, they have tried.
As for heading south into Mexico, there is the matter of just a few bridges, plus all those wonderful fences, walls, and razor wire we have put up. With such a great example as The Day After Tomorrow, I wonder that no one thought what would happen if suddenly all of the Plains States decided to head for Mexico. You anti-immigration folks didn’t think of that, did you???
I once had a chat with a TV meteorologist who had just come back from a meeting at the Army’s(?) War College. Seems the good folks there were working on contingency plans for weather-related disasters a la The Day After Tomorrow, and they wanted some expert input as to how bad it could get & how fast. My guess is that somebody’s thought quite a lot about evacuation plans for the country, but we (the general public) aren’t ever going to hear all the juicy details.
How long is the expected evacuation supposed to last? Because the other problem is where would we go? Some of us have overseas relatives with whom we could stay. But what about the vast majority who don’t?
If the only criterion was that the US be clear of humans, live or dead, and the fate of the evacuated humans was unimportant, as a worst case the population could simply be forced to walk north or south, carrying those who couldn’t move on their own. How long would it take to walk from the midpoint to a border? A couple of months?
Actually having an orderly evaculation of a population that large with supplies and support on the way and survivable conditions at the destinations would be much more difficult and would take years of preparation.
If we all decided to go North, I don’t think Canada could stop us.
Of course, the OP is ignoring the logistics of feeding those 300 million people during the evacuation, and dealing with their waste products, and all the other ancillary problems involved.
Anybody ever heard of cars? There are 243,023,485 automobiles in the United States. You put a driver and a single passenger in each one and you’ll have plenty of room left over. Offhand, I’d guess Miami is as far from a land border as any place in the United States and it’s about 1200 miles from Mexico - a distance you could drive in 24 hours (my brother-in-law once made it from Houston to Disneyworld in under 18 hours).
So the physical capacity exists to evacuate the entire United States in a single day. The organizational details however would be a lot more challenging.
Never been on your car in rush hour, have you?
Say, if I want to go to the beach*, I drive 40 km south. On a Tuesday or Wednesday( I’m on vacations) it takes me 30-35 minutes. If I do it on a Sunday at 10 am, it’s 60 minutes, with reversed lanes (6 in total). An evacuation with at least 10x the number of cars…we’d never get there.
