There’s a lot of good data here:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1eE2BERAvRzs28kG87ft3a27FS9-gHvdC
It’s a Google drive folder maintained by Aaron Collins, who has been testing masks live on YouTube for the past two years. He’s been references by a lot of serious news sources, and is apparently pretty good.
Haven’t most schools been in person this flu season, though?
According to the CDC, there’s been an estimated 22k flu cases in the US this season. That’s very low, but its not like last year. My county reports 1000 positive cases so far . . .last year we had 2. And that’s starting with very little flu circulating at the start of the season.
I’m sure masking (and sanitizing, and the distancing we can do) is making a big difference. But the effect was more dramatic when schools were practically empty.
EYA: 20k is still a lot less than the tens of millions we used to get, of course.
It’s interesting to compare that to Canada. The US has a lot more people pushing to stop using masks, and have lifted mandates in a lot more places. Canada, by and large, still has such mandates in place, even if they’re not perfectly applied.
And see that? The US influenza rate is much higher than Canada. We’ve increased a slight bit since last year, but it’s still so low as to be hard to see on the graphs I linked to.
Real-time science!
I’m keeping my masks for a while yet.
Others have given examples of other factors that may have had an effect.
The subject of masking appears to have collected an unfotunate political symbolism and claims of effectivesss and ineffectiveness that are rarely backed up with solid data and often inflated or favourably interpreted according to one’s beliefs. I don’t think that is helpful.
The most common claims for mask effectiveness under real world conditions have been based on studies that were incomplete at best. I’ve read them.
They make it clear that it was not possible to quantify the protective effect from the mask as distinct from other behaviours that the mask wearer might undertake. There is however, an underlying established science that does suggest they have some beneficial effect. It would be a stretch on behalf of anti-mask people to say there was none.
So In short, we don’t really know what effect mask wearing has had in and of itself.
Is it reasonble to say it has had some effect on the prevalance of various infections? Yes. Is it a fact that it is a substantial effect or the largest effect of all preventative measures? We don’t know, we haven’t quantified it in isolation.
Hand sanitizing?
The US hasn’t closed anything this flu season. Restaurants are no longer distanced. We aren’t major users of public transit as a nation. So it’s basically masks and working from home and not going out when you feel sick that are the only plausible drivers that i can think of.
I’d be happy to keep all three of those.
But even if we assume masks are 90% of that, the place they are having the biggest impact is schools, where children and adults have to wear them all day.
Its a big deal to ask kids to spend 12 years not knowing what most of their classmates really look like, or being able to smile at each other. (And you really don’t when they wear the mask full time. We had an outdoor, no mask event and we were all shocked to discover how different, sometimes unrecognizable, our students were.)
Hmm, that’s true.
And yes. I’ve been coaching a class at a masked school, and the first time one of my students took off his mask to grab a drink of water i was shocked to learn what his lower face looked like. That is pretty weird.
(I can tell when they smile behind the masks, though.)
I wonder how retail cashiers and similar employees, who also spend all day in a masked environment, feel about it.
Sure, no doubt those are all contributing to some degree. but of course the levels of flu this season are also tied to circulating levels from last season which was subject to mass closures and social distancing. I don’t think you can consider the two seasons in complete isolation (pun intended I guess)
And don’t get me wrong, I have no doubt that certain types of masking will have some influence on infection levels. I just don’t share the level of certainty that others seem to have when they make claims on how much influence they have had. I’ve not seen the evidence that would support such certainty.
I’m struggling to think of other significant factors.
But @MandaJo makes a good point about the disparate impact that this year’s mask mandates have had on students.
The college students i coach tell me they are expected to wear masks everywhere other than their bedrooms, or when actually eating. Their campus has a much lower rate of covid than the general community, and the masks probably contribute to that. (As does the college’s requirement they all be boosted, i would guess.) But is it worth it? They’d like to be able to relax at home, in their common areas, without masks. Even when I’ve had several days of mask time, i was able to go home, shower, and spend a couple hours unmasked each day. And i think that made a big difference to me. I bet it would to them, too.
I like not catching colds in the last two years. But maybe the cost is too high.
But, it has occurred to me to wonder if normal exposure to cold viruses and such is important to keep our immune systems in good working order.
You mean like the hypothesis that it’s our lack of exposure to parasites that leads to food allergies?
Oh no, these folks are masters of mental flipflops. Around here the anti-maskers are claiming removing the mask mandate is “doing what’s right”. They say people are finally coming to their senses & realizing masks don’t work. They also claim many states regret ever doing it in the first place. Rational thought is not involved here.
Something like that—like the “hygiene hypothesis.”
One of my kids teaches music to toddlers (and their parents). She chose to require masks, even tho it turned away some prospective clients. I asked her the other day if she intended to change her policy, as it might increase her class sizes (and resultant income.) She said her current parents appreciated the masking, and even if relaxing that requirement might bring in new students, it might also turn away existing ones. An interesting conundrum.
I’m going to carry on wearing masks - It’s just that they are terribly comfortable.
Washing hands, keeping distance from other humans, avoiding mass gatherings… I already had most of that before this all started.
I have worn a mask only in places where it is/was legally required. I’ve used some hand sanitizer occasionally in places where there was a dispenser – dentist or doctor office, a few stores, etc.
Just back from 10 days in Florida and saw very few masks out and about; basically food service workers and some store employees. Stayed with my sister in a very socially active snowbird trailer park and no one wore a mask or even spoke about Covid during patio get-togethers or game night gatherings.
Other than the plane and airport the only place I went where a mask was required was the gift shop at the power plant where the manatees gather in the warm water – people from all over the country standing shoulder to shoulder at the viewing area were mostly mask-free but the gift shop (I didn’t go in) required a mask and they were handed out for free.
Unless something changes I will probably continue doing what I’ve done all along which isn’t very much. I’ve had Covid (had a cough for a while), I have antibodies, I am not fat or diabetic, I don’t have heart trouble or other health issues, I’ve had more than my expected three score and ten years, I’ve lost friends and relatives (who all had other health issues along with the Covid), I’m ready for all the crap to come to an end and I am willing to pay the price.
Is that what you meant to say? Masks aren’t horrible to wear, but I sure wouldn’t call them terribly comfortable. As weather warms, the fogging of glasses will be less of a problem.
It’s a pretty horrible death. I recommend you be careless about some other health hazards, instead.