A more likely scenario would be that the election’s close enough so that Republicans can claim that the results are invalid and contest the election in various states, creating a constitutional crisis by refusing to accept the results. The results become a protracted legal and political dispute which ends up ultimately going to the House, where they would probably win because of a majority of state delegations. This couldn’t happen if Trump lost by 10-15% in the popular vote and the Dem winner ends up with 350-400 EC delegates, but if the Democrat wins by one or two states and a few thousand votes in those states, we could be headed for an 1876-style crisis.
Just to go straight to the reductio ad absurdum - every President since Ronald Reagan (and that’s the first time I actually noticed these things) has been said to have black helicopters hidden away in the mountains, thousands of armed “United Nations” troops garrisoned all over the U.S., and road signs marked “Martial Law” (although it’s usually spelled Marshall) hidden in the back rooms of Wal-Marts all over God’s Greatest Country, ready to deploy instantly, and all of them planned to hang on to office despite what the Constitution says.
True, but to be fair, Trump isn’t like Reagan/Bush/Clinton/Bush/Obama.
If these Trump-hanging-on-despite-losing scenarios come to pass, it will most likely all come down to Secret Service. The director of Secret Service would probably be in communication with the incoming administration as soon as election results were in, and tell his agents to respect the outcome of the election and drag Trump out of the Oval Office by physical force, if need be, at noon on Inauguration Day 2021.
THAT I would watch.
I have a feeling that, if it comes down to Trump losing the election but refusing to concede even on January 20, it would come down to one thing; which Commander-in-Chief does the Armed Forces follow? That’s pretty much how Ferdinand Marcos got driven out of the Philippines in a similar situation.
Since we are off in the realm of speculation here, I could just as easily see Trump not showing up to anything relating to the inauguration of the candidate he just lost to. The guy barely shows up to work. He might just take a three month golf vacation from November through January. And that could be the hardest he worked during his entire term.
They follow the lawfully elected President. Not some guy who is no longer president past 12:00 on January 20.
Nor, at least as far as I know right now, is Trump like Caligula.
Besides, if he refuses to go, some minor bureaucrat will finally leak his tax returns and Trump will die from embarrassment.
Trump is an insecure man who understands he doesn’t have the support of the military, intelligence, or civil service so he can’t hold power after Inauguration Day. He would also terrified of facing real consequences when he can’t pardon himself. There is no chance he tries.
He’ll show up but not out of any respect for tradition or the importance of symbolizing an orderly transition of power. It will be his last chance to stand before a truly giant audience. He can pretend that they want to say farewell to him while simultaneously asserting that his audience was twice as big. Maybe we’ll even see Melania smile with the knowledge that her ongoing nightmare is coming to a close.
He’ll show up, applaud politely, then quickly leave. That’s supposed to be how it’s always done. Of course, then he’ll make a big deal about departing Washington.
The only way he doesn’t show up is if he thinks that the first thing the new President will do after taking the oath is point to him and say, “Arrest that man!”, which won’t happen if for no other reason than the new President wouldn’t want to deflect from the ceremony. What happens the minute Trump gets off of whatever plane took him out of Washington, however, is another story.
Agreed if the situation were simply rational - but this is Trumpworld.
Trump has shown a tendency to take the most outrageous path available. What’s more outrageous than being evicted from the White House? His base would love it. He could push Limbaugh, Beck et al off the stage and become the #1 radio/TV political shock jock.
Thought about posting a new thread but realized that this one exists.
Read an article today in which someone presented a scenario similar to one I’ve discussed on one or more of these threads previously.
It’s worth the read and it’s important to be very aware of the scenario. Basically, the scenario goes like this:
- The president and GOP employ voter suppression.
- The president loses anyway (FWIW, in my scenario, the Republicans lose more seats on election night
- The election goes Biden’s way but it’s not a landslide (this part is really key)
- Trump cries “rigged” and the GOP gets behind claims of voter fraud in two or three battleground states where Republicans have control.
- They can’t certify the results.
- They don’t have enough electors
- It goes to the House, where the GOP still controls the number of state delegations.
- The House votes to re-elect Trump.
I concede that this scenario is a little more remote than it was a few months ago. It probably won’t happen if Biden wins in a landslide, but if the election is even remotely close, all bets are off.
I came here to post this too. Not sure is asahi’s Yahoo link is the full story or an excerpt, but here is the source at Newsweek:
How Trump Could Lose the Election—And Still Remain President, Timothy E. Wirth and Tom Rogers, Newsweek, July 3, 2020.
They seem to feel it’s not so remote. They suggest that, convoluted and contrived though the scheme is, each individual step is plausible.
If a bureaucrat did that I would revere them as major league, not minor.
The problem with threads like this is is that they focus too much on Trump.
According to that title and section of federal law, the guy who officially announces the election result is Mike Pence:
[quote] . . . the President of the Senate, who shall thereupon announce the of the vote, which announcement shall be deemed a sufficient declaration of the persons, if any, elected President and Vice President of the United[ States, and, together with a list of the votes, be entered on the Journals of the two Houses.[quote]
If Pence says, at that January 6 joint session of Congress, that Biden won, that is the end. At that minute, Donald’s practical ability to stay in the While House after January 20 is gone. If Pence says he and Donald lost, the Secret Service will follow that.
Now, if Pence says that his ticket won, while mainstream tellers and news media says otherwise, we are in a real constitutional crisis. That’s what’s important.
Trump talks like a dictator. But he can’t become one without the help of his veep.
Just how literally is that to be taken?
If Biden wins five thousand electoral votes but Pence then gets up and announces Trump has won, does that make Trump president for another term?
If that’s all it takes to steal an election, why doesn’t this happen more often?
[quote=“Senegoid, post:57, topic:834091”]
We never had an incumbent administration with such strong dictatorial instincts before.
Prior Presidents have generally respected America’s constitutional norms, and have been surrounded by advisors and cabinet members who did, too.
The scenario where Biden wins relatively narrowly and Trump and Barr try to hold up enough states’ votes to prevent Biden from having a majority and so having the House re-elect Trump is one I am 100 percent sure Trump and his team have at least discussed trying.
Okay, re: the above two replies: I get that, that it hasn’t happened before because we’ve never had a president and VP that crooked. But still, my question stands: Can it possibly be possible that the election would be that easy to steal, if the prez and his VP had a mind to?
So. Some (hypothetical future) pres and his VP lose bigly but the VP stands up and says out loud that the prez (and himself) are re-elected. Can that really stand?