So, I’ve been keeping a vague eye on how things have been progressing recently, politics wise, in the US. There is a huge fight right now about mail in voting and all of the potential benefits and issues with this. There is a lot of folks on both sides who see what’s going on in terms of the other side trying to steal the election. Then there is the whole current state of the Supreme Court. That, coupled with this ongoing Covid outbreak makes it a really weird time in the US…IMHO and all that.
Again, IMHO, I don’t see Trump winning, but let’s say, for the sake of argument, that it’s really, really close. There are several key states and things are close in them, and we get something like what happened in the Bush/Gore election…a final state that will make the difference and put one candidate over the other to win. But it’s not one state, it’s several. And we don’t know who won because the mail in ballots are taking longer to process than usual, or things are just so close that it can’t be called, or whatever you like. What happens? Both sides are convinced the other is trying to steal the election, both are poised to explode if things are close and they think this is happening, and the current constraints as well as issues are there. What happens if, a week later we still don’t know who won? Is this even a possibility (not probable, just possible)? And if so, what happens then?
It could get very, very ugly, and you can be sure the President will make it so, if he thinks he has any chance of winning at all. Absentee ballots may be some days or even weeks from being all counted, depending on state law and delays with the Postal Service (about which see more elsewhere). There will probably be lawsuits, and inflammatory public statements, and perhaps - God forbid - even violence.
And yet he doesn’t have the authority to order ballot counting to stop. That would end up in the courts.
If the election is close but Trump is declared the winner, barring some egregious and obvious fraud, Biden would concede and we would move on.
If the election is close but Biden is declared the winner, Trump and his followers will scream and yell and claim massive fraud. Things will end up in court and who knows what will happen if it gets to SCOTUS. Personally, in this situation unless there is evidence of funny business, I would expect SCOTUS to uphold that Biden is the winner. I would expect Roberts to vote with the four supposed liberals. I can’t imagine he has much stomach for four more years of this shit.
If the election is NOT close and Biden wins by a mile, I expect Trump and his followers to still scream and yell and claim massive fraud. In this case I would expect McConnell to tell Donnie to STFU and go and the courts to basically ignore him.
Now, if a GOP legislature voted to stop the count, that would be a problem. A Democratic governor could then veto what the legislature passed. I hope the U.S. Supreme Count would uphold the veto. However, according to the U.S. Constitution, "Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors . … " Nothing there about my state’s Democratic governor vetoing what our GOP legislature passed.
Some would argue that the Pennsylvania legislature voted for our current state constitution, including its veto provision. That now binds the legislature. I hope Roberts agrees. Or that a few GOP moderates in Harrisburg would vote against the Trump initiative to stop the count. Both are possible. Neither is certain.
Trump talks like a dictator. Maybe I’m a fool to believe he means what he says. Hopefully I am.
Assuming Trump will do whatever he wants is not the same that Trump’s will becomes reality.
If Biden absolutely crushes Trump, I expect a lot of bluster, but no real trouble. However, if it’s close I do think he’ll try to (continue) to rig it in his favor whether or not he technically has the legal ability to do so. If he gets on TV and demands absentee ballots not be counted, I imagine at least some Trumpy local officials will oblige him. Maybe that flips it to his reelection, but I don’t for a second think democratic norms, tradition, morals, or the law will dictate Trump’s action.
If Trump looks to have legitimately won, Biden would concede the way Gore did in 2000. If it looks like Trump legitimately lost, It would end up being decided by the SCOTUS, the way the 2000 election was. At that point there are three likely outcomes.
5-4 in favor of Trump. Biden would go along with it. There may be some rioting, probably some of it major, but no constitutional crisis.
5-4 in favor of Biden, with Roberts as the deciding vote. This is the scenario most likely lead to a constitutional crisis. Trump would likely declare the court illegitimate and declare himself the winner. It would then come down to who the leaders of the the Secret Service, the top military generals, etc. decide to follow.
6-3 in favor of Biden, with both Roberts and Gorsuch in Biden’s favor. With the cushion of the extra vote, from a Trump justice no less, Trump would go out kicking and screaming. But at this level, he probably wouldn’t do things like order the Secret Service to not let Biden into the White House.
I fully expect that trump’s goon squads will show up at the places where ballots are being counted and seize them as “evidence” in some absurd “voter fraud” investigation and they’ll never see the light of day. This is especially true if, as expected, his supporters vote mostly in person and Dems vote mostly absentee.
If the R’s can keep the state results disputed and not-officially-certified to such an extent that neither Biden nor Trump can get to 270, then does it go to the House of Representatives? (R’s control more House state delegations than D’s)
It depends on whether every single possible electoral vote must be entered for the results to count. I still haven’t figured out whether that’s the case or not.
Of course it doesn’t matter to HIM. But it’s doubtful anyone or any institution he would NEED to support such an unconstitutional demand, would.
I still have faith that there is a majority on SCOTUS that will block anything out of bounds by DJT. And, if it truly came down to it, I have faith our military will support our lawfully elected President.
I guess your scenario implies that states with GOP governors went for Biden, in the full ballot total, and Biden can’t win without their electoral votes, and the governors refused to send the registered mail letters to Washington with his or her state electoral vote count.
It depends how blatant was the governor’s refusal to certify the obvious election result in their state, and what public opinion says about that.
If rogue governors refuse to sign and mail, and the Democrats have captured the House and Senate, they get to appoint the tellers. It all four give Pence a count most Americans think is fair, he might have to go with that.
Also, the Democrats could make needed gains in the House.
I know I’m ignoring here the number 270. Like Leaper, I’m not sure about that number.
I don’t know what you are thinking would be the legal dispute here. But Roberts would look for a justification for not taking a pick-the-president case.
I also have that faith in our military. Unfortunately, not all the laws, concerning the electoral college, are perfectly clear. Their application requires some degree of good faith and commitment to representative democracy. Except in 1876, and, I fear, 2020, this has always been present.
You don’t think there are anyone around him anymore like: Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, George Papadapolous, Kurt Schiller, Michael Flynn, Rick Gates, Stephen Miller, Jacob Wohl, James O’Keefe, Michael Cohen, Brad Parscale, Steve Bannon…
There’s nobody willing to chuck boxes of absentee ballots into a shredder? I wish I had your faith in this country.
My post was in response to DJT ordering a halt to vote counting and declaring he is President by fiat. He can’t order a stop to vote counting. Based on how the Election of 2000 played out only SCOTUS can make that ruling.
That is really one subway car full of clowns you have listed there. There are a few of them I agree are way too close to power than I’m comfortable with but honestly,
Wohl, O’Keefe, Stone, Parscale are discredited boobs. The only audience they will influence is the Alex Stone crowd.
Manafort is a felon under home confinement, Cohen is as well but has gone full on anti-Trump.
Gates appears to have disappeared into the woodwork as it were. I think he got stung worse than he imagined.
Flynn isn’t in the clear just yet and knows to keep it shut.
Miller and Bannon are the only ones roaming truly free.
The havoc Bill Barr could stir up is more concerning to me than anything that group could successfully execute.
And remind me, would it be the current House, or the House elected in November and taking office in early January which decided this, if it came to that?
I didn’t say those people in particular would do anything. Just that that’s the type of people Trump surrounds himself with. The type of people that absolutely would cheat to win an election.