So it looks likely that the UK will have a general election in next spring. How will a Bush victory affect voting habits here?Does a Bush win mean that Blair is more likely to get in?Would a Kerry victory make significant alterations to the likely outcome?
I’ve pre-booked the day after the next election as holiday. The longer Blair leaves it, the closer it will be. Howard and the Tories are going pull a surprise or two out of their hats. If the election were called today, I don’t believe the Tories would even get a hung parliament let alone a win Next year is going to be interesting. And I predict that a lot of people will be working on manifestoes over Christmas, just in case Blair goes for Feb.
I don’t think Bush winning will have the slightest affect on a British election.
The aftermath would be interesting though if Howard were to be the new leader. He has already been snubbed by the Bush administration, so I can’t see the same degree of co-operation between the Tories and Bush.( When Bush invades Iran for example he is probably going to have to do it without the British).
I think the election next year will be a pretty close run thing, and the biggest handicap for Labour could be Blair. Many of those Brits who bought the reasons for the war in Iraq are now pointing the finger at Blair for lying.
I still think Labour should win, but that’s because (hopefully) people will remember the sleaze ridden Tories of 10 years ago and the man who’s now the leader failing to answer the same simple question 14 times from an interviewer and coming across as a deeply untrustworthy politician.
I think this time will be much closer. In 1997, Blair was hailed as the Great White Hope after years of the sleazy Tories. In 2001, the electorate was still prepared to give him a chance. Now people are starting to look at the 1997 promises and say are they actually working? Before, Blair had such a huge majority that even if 50-100 Labour MPs rebelled in a vote, he could comfortably get it through.
Main priorities: Iraq and the Hutton enquiry, crime and Europe. I wonder how the UKIP will do? They gained a load of the vote in the European elections and especially down here in Devon, got about 3 or 4 MEPs in and had the highest vote in virtually all constituencies(about 35-40% in ours).
Of course, Blair can choose when the election is, so if Labour do well he’ll have it then I’d imagine…
No matter who is in power… they won’t support further US military adventures… its political suicide.
I think it all depends on what Tony Blair can do towards persuading Bush to concentrate on peace in the Middle East - -
if Blair backs Bush and takes us in along side him into another war… I think Blair’s time will be up … although - - who are we going to vote for to replace him ?
if Bush sorts out the Iraq mess and then seems more determined to actually develop peace - - then good old Tony can take some of the credit ( well thats what we will be told )…
Labour’s majority is too strong to be defeated by a minor swing next election. The Tories still have a credibility problem and do not present an effective opposition. They will find it difficult to press an advantage on Iraq, given that the party-room favoured the invasion.
UKIP have made recent advances, but by-elections and local elections traditionally favour smaller parties. The loss of the Orange One, RK-S, may further destabilise the party and erode their support. Further in-fighting will also erode their credibility in a general election.
Look for LDP gains, if only as a protest vote against the war and at the continuing rightward drift of Labour.