Assume whatever you think is the most likely outcome of the current legislation.
Under your assumptions, what significant changes will happen in 2010, 2011 or even 2012?
Obviously things can’t change overnight. Further, it appears that the legislation is designed to generate some revenue or “savings” right away and then incur costs in later years.
It is undetermined until the bill gets through.
Well thanks for bumping the thread at least. Is speculation not allowed in GD?
Certainly; but it is probably premature to have a meaningful discussion of the questions stated in the OP. We could speculate on whether any health-care bill at all will be agreed upon by both houses and, if so, what will be its content.
Most of the major provisions don’t go through until 2013, so I don’t think it will make too much difference to healthcare in the timeframe your looking at.
I seem to recall seeing a list of things that would go into effect more or less immedietly though, I’ll see if I can find it.
The funding source might change in commitee, but I think its safe to say that the final bill won’t differ wildly from the one currently being debated on the floor of the Senate.
If Obamacare passes -
Cost, the deficit, and taxes will all go up. Availability will increase and quality will decline (slightly, overall). Longevity and health-related issues like that will not be affected - no decreases in obesity, for instance.
Which parts do you mean?
Regards,
Shodan
I seem to have failed. But from memory, I believe the bill more or less immedietly closes the Medicare Perscription coverage “donut hole”, forbids insurance companys from killing peoples insurance after the person has been diagnosed with an ailment, bans lifetime limits on coverage and creates some “bridge” programs to provide insurance for people with pre-existing conditions or people without job created benefits until the actual programs for those groups kick in.
According to the CBO, deficits will go down.
Once the death panels are enacted I suspect we can say goodbye to the elderly posters here. And with free-mandatory-late-term-abortion-on-demand I suspect we’ll soon be embroiled in a Children of Men scenario, where we, those from 1 to 65 are the last generation of Americans.
As we age and are killed by the death panels the population will dwindle, until this once great nation lies empty and cold 65 years from now. Whereupon Obama (who will be kept alive as President for Life with the finest medical care the US has to offer) will shake his spear and the Kenyan Communists who he has secretly been working for all along will swarm our shores and institute throbbing gay-sex parties all over our churches. 
But the OP wasn’t looking only for best-case scenarios.
If Obama care gets through ,costs will slowly drop. We are horribly overpaying and insurance companies are exempt from anti-trust.Most health insurance providers control a great percentage of their states citizens exerting huge control over offerings and pricing. But a public option will challenge that . The problem is whether a public option will pass or if it does will not have insurance company loopholes that will damage its effectiveness.
Insurance companies have been promising to cut prices if it is passes the way they want it. But they are jacking prices up and cutting people now to make it look like they are developing responsibility when it takes effect. Then they will cut prices and be right where they started. It is a scam.
…
The last I heard there was to be no change as a result of federal legislation until 2011 or beyond and some were shooting for 2013.
Bullshit. I think we all know that the Canadians will slowly shift the maps a little bit farther south every year. “Welcome to South Carolina, southernmost state in Canada, eh?”
Obama may be a Communist Kenyan Sleeper agent who as fooled 70% of Americans, but a Kenyan will never out-sneak a Canadian.
-Joe
They won’t.
THe bill under discussion does nothing to address the causes of health care inflation.
Emphasis added.
Cite.
The idea is that Obamacare will reduce the deficit if Congress makes the cuts. Congress won’t make the cuts, so the deficit will not be reduced.
Regards,
Shodan
I thought this was a crisis? Nothing is going to change until 2011?!?!
The list that Simplicio provided up above would definitely increase the cost of private insurance. Is that the only thing we can look forward to?
Some things will, see my list. As for it taking a while for the full bill to come into effect, well, multi-trillion dollar industries don’t really turn on a dime.
I don’t think it will. Again, according to the CBO, the price for the same level policy should drop with the new legislation. The average amount paid for insurance will increase, but only because more comprehensive plans will look more attractive to people due to the cheaper price, and so they’ll end up getting them instead of their previous plans.
As for it not making much difference if you already have decent insurance and aren’t in Medicare, well, that’s basically how the thing has been sold since before the election. We must’ve heard Obama repeat the “if you like it, you can keep the healthcare you have” line about a trillion times during the debates.
Shodan, You seem to be under the mistaken impression that the bill relies on future legislation to make cuts. I don’t believe that’s true, it makes the cuts it relies on for funding in the bill itself. Granted they could be reversed later, but then that’s unlikely (if we’ve learned nothing else during the reform process, its that passing things through Congress is hard), and you can basically oppose anything on the idea that, hey, technically they could repeal it later so whats the point.
The problem with predictions is anything that is passed in 2010 can be stopped by the Nov 10 elections. Mr Obama needs to really do something about jobs and the economy. Historically in bad times the party in power gets hit.
Mr Obama ran on a platform of change, well we’re still in Iraq, in Afghanistan, the economy is worse and though he isn’t responsible for that, he ran by saying he’d change things.
If the healthcare reform passes and the Democrats get hit by the 2010 elections then it’s a no go. And I don’t see the economy getting better anytime soon
The impression I get is that gay marriages will become mandatory and members of the death panels will be tasked with the enforcing the rules by going into your bedrooms and making sure you and your same-sex partner are really buttfucking each other not just faking.
Obama will still be President regardless of how the 2010 elections go (well, I guess if they go really badly). And unless the GOP picks up 27 seats in the Senate (I don’t think that’s even numerically possible unless there’s some mass Senator die off between now and then), he’ll presumably just veto any attempt to repeal the Healthcare legislation.
As mentioned,
Cite. And my other cite demonstrated that Democrats are not willing to make cuts to Medicare right now either.
Regards,
Shodan
Here’s what I see happening:
The Republicans, through their unending obstructionism and fear-mongering, manage to kill the health care bill and win enough seats in mid term elections to ensure it never gets discussed again.
A hypothetical Republican-leaning SDMB poster rejoices, as the Republican values that truly represent the USA have been saved! The USA is free from the tyranny of having a healthy population! And now all those dirty brown people who are such a strain on the system can die in obscurity and the riches of the nation can stay where they belong- in the pockets of the rich.
But then, disaster strikes. The poster gets a rare, exotic, painful and untreatable case of ass cancer. He thinks to himself that this sucks but since he has good health care coverage and since he’s a patriotic Republican he should get world class treatment at the earliest opportunity. So he goes to his health care provider to bask in the benefits of free market efficiency.
The insurance company takes one look at the cost of treatment and decides that no matter what this man does with the rest of his short lifespan, he will never pay back in premiums what he will take out in a single visit to the oncologist. Their reply to his claim is swift and certain: DENIED.
The poster then faces a painful period of weeks to months before his guts fall right out of his ass. And with no job (because the pain medication that he can afford leaves him legally intoxicated and he is fired for that or for shitting blood all over the seats) he can’t afford any kind of treatment. Well, time for the good old American solution: he is going to sue.
He sues his doctor for not diagnosing the ass cancer in time. But the Republicans have pushed through a strict tort reform that makes it all but impossible to sue unless your doctor operated on you with a chainsaw instead of a scalpel. So lawsuit #1 is laughed out of court and he now owes his lawyer a bunch of money.
Time for lawsuit #2, against the insurance company. This one is laughed out of court immediately, again due to protections brought in by the Republican congress and senate. He now owes his lawyer twice as much money and doesn’t have the option of suing anyone else because his lawyer is not willing to take a third tilt at the windmill.
So at this point our patriotic Republican is out of money, is denied coverage and cannot sue anyone. This is where he proves himself a real patriot and exercises his Second Amendment rights. He takes one or two of his many legal firearms, goes into a Democrat’s office and shoots everyone there because the health care situation is all their fault. Having unburdened the health care system of the needs of several people, he then takes his own life with a smile on his face.
Fox News picks up the story of the poor patriot who slipped through the cracks and the battered Obama administration is booted out on its sorry ass in 2012 because of the Democratic incompetence that allowed such a tragedy to occur.
Slope a little slippery for you? Well, people who don’t believe in health care reform really piss me off. Understand this: THE INSURANCE COMPANIES DON’T OWE YOU A THING. No matter how good your plan is, some insurance company bureaucrat has one single purpose and that is to deny your claims. Take any random insurance company nightmare story. Now put yourself in the shoes of the person who died penniless and in pain. If the Republicans manage to take down these reforms, that person will be you. And it’s not a matter of if but rather when.