They’re going to not vote. A real possibility, till a week ago. Get real.
I’m not even going to attempt to respond to the rest of your response to my post, as you have hacked my sentences out of all recognition, except to mention that if you interpret my use of the word “stupid” to be a personal insult, then you should report my post.
Cite?
They’ve been absolutely loyal to the GOP ticket ever since the Gingrich era, even with candidates who have patronized them similarly (i.e. Bush 1). That’s “real”. 
That’s one common response from someone with no respectable argument left to make. Another one, and usually a better one, is to simply not reply at all.
I have merely shown that they have no basis in fact or reason. That’s the sort of thing we *do *here.
If you had bothered to fucking read even that, you would have understood it to be a friendly bit of advice about word choice in a debate forum. Obviously I choice an inappropriately-high level to try to communicate to you with.
No, they’d vote for him. But they wouldn’t donate money, they wouldn’t engage in get out the vote drives, they wouldn’t defend him on the internet or in coffee shops, they wouldn’t put his signs on his lawn, or his bumper sticker on their cars. And they damned sure wouldn’t give sermons in his favor in church.
The GOP’s ‘ground game’ has always been a huge advantage for them. If McCain didn’t have it, and it didn’t look like he would, he was going to have a hell of a time winning.
He’s got it now, and it’s more energized than it’s been since Reagan. That’s gold.
Eh, it’s silver at best. Obama’s way ahead of him in that regard.
We’ve been mobilized waaaaaaaay too long to be overtaken now. Palin or no Palin.
Your first sentence was entirely adequate. The rest is window-dressing.
Except he *did *have it, the moment he became the RR’s party’s nominee. Just drop in a choice comment here and there about guns and activist judges and such, and that’s all it would take to wrap it up.
Hell, look at Romney. They were ready to anoint him their Leader *knowing *he was pandering to them with that kind of stuff. The hallmark of that mindset is a desire to Believe, after all. A GOP candidate just has to offer that desire a point of focus.
McCain had two choices - to go left, to get the independents, or to go right, to get the hard core Bushies. He wanted to go left, but he wimped out again and went right. Obama should now paint McCain as a right wing extremist (but nicely, of course) since he won’t be able to deny it without losing the people he got with the Palin choice. Either force them to disagree, or force Palin to start sounding moderate and lose the far-right base.
Obama is doing targeted advertising, he has the money. In moderate areas he should play up the extremist angle. In more red areas, he should play a lot of McCains old moderate sound bites, and say, are you sure this guy is going to support your views once he gets elected?
I assume Alaska has more reporters than salmon now. If half the political dirt that is reported in the email from the lady who knows her pans out, she’s screwed. Executive experience when she had to hire an administrator to run a town of 7,000? Having the town go into debt after her administration? That will help. Biden can use this to knock her off the pedestal, showing she is too insignificant for Obama to deal with.
More of a factual question - is this VP bounce significantly out of range of VP bounces historically? I know that it blows Biden’s non-bounce out of the water. Her VP bounce really was combined with the GOP convention bounce, but I think that we can give almost all the bounce to her. I know that Gore-Lieberman had an 8 pt bounce after that highly exciting celebrity Lieberman was named, and another 8 pt bounce with the Dem Convention.
Also how often have VP and/or Convention bounces been lasting, and when they have faded how long has it taken.
The relevance has to do with the timing of responding. If the convention bounce of the party that goes last tend to start to swing back say in 10 days (making that up) then would it perhaps be best to time the bigger response against that team to take advantage of that momentum? (Y’know, like how you push a car out of a snowbank by timing your shove?)
This. Prezactly. Biden is already praising Palin for being a “smart, tough politician” who will be “formidable”, as you can see, for example, in this YouTube clip of his Meet the Press appearance yesterday. Notice how neatly he pivots off that to pointing out that there’s much more to be learned about her and that the real contest is between Obama and McCain. He’s setting the stage well for what you outline.
I noticed that Biden will refer to McCain as “John” (“known him a long time as a colleague” is the implication) and to Palin not by name but rather as a “politician” or “the governor” (implying she’s no squeaky clean outsider maverick after all). Defining her as just another politician rather than as a fresh, exciting new face will help to blunt her impact.
The race has gotten a lot tougher with Palin rather than, say Romney, but I tend to believe the Obama campaign is already engaging in the initial tactics of their neutralizing Plain strategy.
ElvisL1ves, the point about Palin energizing the base for McCain is not that they might otherwise have gone to Obama (fat chance, as you say), but that where they were tepid toward McCain before, they’re now much more strongly motivated to open their wallets and engage in the GOTV work that got Bush elected and re-elected.
ETA: Damn, others beat me to that last point. Oh, well.
Yeah. That was a smart interview. Acknowledging her as a “tough, smart politician” isn’t just gracious, it deflates her “Mrs. Smith goes to Washington” image. Talking about “I don’t know where she stands on the issues” encourages everyone, from voters to the press, to grill her on these things, and challenge her on the earmarks and her extreme views on abortion.
Regards,
Shodan
I wouldn’t get too excited about a normal and expected convention bounce. Convention bounces are like foam on beer. They’re mostly air and they evaporate quickly. In a few days, we’ll see Obama back with his normal 2-3 point lead, and that’s where he’ll finish. He might even do a little better than that once Palin gets totally exposed in the VP debate.
A one point lead is pretty much meaningless.
Another point on the convention bounce is that Obama was well on his way to having an even bigger one than the 10 points or so peak of the bounce he got, but McCain’s announcement of Palin the very next day after his hugely successful acceptance speech blunted its effect by diverting attention to the shiny new object.
It seems to me that long term McCain may have harmed himself as much as helped, by re-energizing the Democratic base and, for extra added bonus points, royally pissing off the multitude of people who will see the sneering jibes at community organizers as direct slaps in their faces. That was a really stupid attack, made even more stupid by its repetition the next day when the blowback from it was already erupting.
Yeah, see the problem is that the vast majority of Middle America who generally votes Republican likes the simplistic jingoistic U! S! A! centric world view. That’s what the Democrats don’t realize and that’s why they lose elections.
People fundamentally like the idea that God is Great, USA is best, Europe is a ‘bunch of fags’ and that they should be able to live in an oversized house in a suburban subdivision, drive their kids to soccer practice every day in the Range Rover, enjoy beer, barbeques and football on the weekend and feel secure in their $60,000 a year job.
The Democrats, however, have historically done a terrible job in connecting with that segment of the population. With the exception of Bill Clinton, they try to do so on an intellectual level and come across sounding elitist and preachy.
Oh, don’t worry. I’m sure the Democrats will manage to find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
He might point out that after Biden was selected he went to the news and political shows and defended his positions, Palin has been hidden away and is being schooled . She would have been a huge embarrassment . That should give a clue about how well qualified she really is.
And yet what? What does a poll – a national one, no less – have to do with my refutation of your “gold” tag on McCain’s mobilization?
You guys really are running scared, aren’t you?
And I love how McCain keeps trying to pound home how Obama’s “not ready to lead,” yet has followed Obama’s every campaign strategy. He’s sure leading McCain around by the nose!
“And yet”, despite your assertion that you were too well-organized to be overtaken, it has happened already.
Heavens yes, the news that McCain has moved into the lead in the polls, and is leading by 10% among likely voters, terrifies and upsets me. Why, if things continue as they are now, we may have to deal with the horrifying prospect of actually winning the election! :eek:
Regards,
Shodan
The USA Today poll is a joke.
The organization is going to beat you on election day, not at the polls.
They’ve already repudiated the attacks in no uncertain terms. There’s no reason to gratuitously attack “the media” which, overall, has been pretty good to all the candidates so far. (The media are not a monolith, but most people use the term to refer to major newspapers, and television and radio networks, not blogs and e-mails and such, which is where most of the nasty stuff surfaces and gains traction.)
“Gifted,” sure, it’s a gimme, but “a good job as Governor”? Let Palin campaign for herself, please.
Oh, my, would righties have a field day with this. It would rightly be mocked as transparent pandering, it would yield at least one ridiculous photo on par with Dukakis in the tank (or even worse, out-of-context picture of black man aiming a semiautomatic), and the idea that he had some kind of epiphany or meaningful insight after two hours at the shooting range would be derided as shallow and phony.
Which is what he’s been doing pretty much all along.
His campaign did take a serious misstep by attacking Palin’s inexperience right out of the gate. It was such an obvious mistake I think Obama must have been looking the other way when it happened.
Well, not everyone. The great majority of voters have already decided and are unlikely to change barring a major catastrophe. That’s not to say he should be too cavalier about writing them off on one hand or taking us for granted on the other, but he’s got to focus on the truly undecided, and I don’t think he’s going to win them over with a couple of wild shots at a paper target any more than he did by throwing gutter balls.
He can slap them down, but he can’t shut them up, anymore than McCain can silence the irrational right (not that McCain has done much slapping). It actually could be cool if they made www.fightthesmears.com into a bipartisan page, countering some of the smears used against both sides, but I don’t really see that happening.
Obama’s sure did! 
But you are right. Any poll before the debates are basically flavor of the week type things.