Hispanics make up a larger and larger part of the American electorate, though I believe they are still not voting at really high rates. I’ve read a number of handwringing articles from Republican pundits urging candidates to try to keep the Hispanic voter in mind while talking about various issues, but I don’t think I’ve heard much about real attempts from either party to connect with Hispanics. Democrats might be thinking simply that so much of the Republican rhetoric around immigration sounds hostile to Hispanics of all stripes (except maybe Cubans) and that such perceived hostility will be enough to keep most Hispanics from voting Republican. But that doesn’t seem like a long-term strategy.
What should the parties do, and who will do it better? Is there a good chance the Republicans can find a way to appeal to Hispanic voters? Will it be soon enough? Would a Republican party with less emphasis on immigration be an appealing one for a large chunk of Hispanic voters, or is that too simplistic an idea? (I’m parroting those pundits I mentioned above who seem to think it’s immigration and immigration alone that’s pushing Hispanics toward the Democratic party.)
Well the potential impact of Hispanic voters is indeed huge … if they come out to vote.
“Family values” are big in many portions of the Hispanic American demographic. Job growth too. The Republicans appeal to some Hispanic voters the same way they appeal to the rest of those they appeal to by emphasizing those “traditional” values, by claiming that they know better how to grow the economy, by pegging the Democrats as intellectual elitists, and by playing up the “American Dream.” To some degree that tactic has worked with the Cuban American demographic in Florida.
It will be a hard sell for them as there are just too many sound bites from these primary debates that will be heard as wanting to make the American Dream something not for the likes of them … like promises of vetoing the Dream Act, and support of Arizona’s so-called “immigration” law. It’s not just immigration, I don’t think. It is a perception of hostility to their demographic. Santorum’s slip in a debate calling the Hispanic vote the illegal vote tells some Hispanics all they need to know.
The Democrats have to play up that they do support a pathway to legal status and a chance for all to achieve success in America. They must demonstrate that they realize the strengths Hispanics bring to this country. And they roll the tape of what the Republican nominee has said in the GOP debates, targeting particular markets. And they figure out a way to get people (yes, in this case Hispanic people, often young adult Hispanic people) to do more than answer polls about who they prefer and get off their behinds and get to the damn polls on election day.
In evaluating the success of this, it’s important to get a handle on what fraction of the U.S. Hispanic population are (a) citizens, and (b) 18 years of age or older.
To the extent that one relies on Census figures for different population groups, one must remember that the Census Bureau doesn’t ask about citizenship, and noncitizens constitute a higher proportion if Hispanics than of other groups living in the U.S. The Hispanic population also skews younger - I’ll try to dig up stats on that later.
Rachel Maddow just did a long story (2/23) on Marco Rubio possibly being Romney’s running mate. But what chance does a young, minority, first-term senator have in a presidential election?
This is important to note. Many Hispanics, especially those who are second or third generation Americans, are all for policing the borders and having a sensible immigration policy. In fact the reform plan put forth by the Bush Administration in 2006 probably would have garnered a fair amount of support in the Hispanic community. That’s not to say it was an ideal solution, but if nothing else it least offered a path to citizenship and Bush himself seemed to be aware of the reality that you can’t just up and deport 10 million people.
But its the tone coming out of the rest of the GOP about the issue that really sours a lot of Hispanics on the Republicans, including many who might otherwise be conducive to most of the party’s platform. You can fault Karl Rove for many things, but one thing I do give him credit for is realizing this, and that shunning Hispanics would be a good way of putting the party on the path to irrelevancy.
a lot of immigrants have US born children that will turn eighteen at some point. These children will have experienced the struggles and racism their parents went through. Hispanic women have higher fertility rates, translating to bigger families.
This will translate into a very large voting-eligible demographic. But I think whats missing are central cultural leaders. One challenge is that within hispanics you have many different cultures. But the day they vote as religiously as old white people I think youll see some big changes in politics.
None, this year, but a VP run would give him exposure to build on for 2016.
Of course, as with Palin, the exposure, e-year and afterwards, could just make him look more and more ridiculous and repellent . . . or not, who knows?
Specially those who are second or third generation, or those like us Puerto Ricans and a sizable number of Chicanos, who NEVER immigrated (“we did not cross the border, the border crossed us”) and have been Americans for a century+ . We could be a great pool of voters to hit with the Values message (guess what population group has the largest rate of movement from the old churches in the direction of Evangelical denominations) or with the opportunity message specially for the young. The newest 'Rican in Congress: Raul Labrador, is a TeaPartier representing* Idaho* (long story; and may he stay there).
But no, keep saying that it’s a threat to America that the voicemail gives an option to continue in English or Spanish. That’ll really motivate people to listen to your platform…