I think it can be claimed without disagreement that the current expectation among news coverage of American politics is that the Democrats are expected to regain some lost ground in next week’s midterm elections, riding on a wave of national dissatisfaction with the policies of the Bush Administration. Depending on who you listen to, the Dems are expected to win anywhere from a slim majority in the House to a grand rout in both the House and Senate.
Assuming that there aren’t any “surprising” election upsets next Tuesday, and that the predictions come true, how does the SDMB Hivemind think the Bush Administration will (re)act as a result? Will there be a genuine effort at bipartisanship and outreach? Will the White House hunker down, pushing for more extreme legislation in an effort to negotiate less outrageous results? Will the Administration seek new ways to circumvent Congress all together and further consolidate Executive power? Or maybe a combination of these results?
Hunker down and hope that they can get by on claims of “executive priviledge” to avoid real Congressional oversight for the next 2 years. Then get out of Dodge and retire to write their memmiors, leaving it to “future presidents” to sort out the mess in Iraq. Bush is a lame duck at this point, and hasn’t been able to get any of his policies thru Congress for quite some time anyway.
If the Repubs lose greatly, you are going to see a bunker mentality like you’re never seen before. If they just barely lose their majority, you will see arm-twisting and payoffs and scandal-mongering and screams of “obstructionism” at every turn. I see absolutely zero chance of any attempt at compromise or approachment.
Hunker down and hope for the best. I’m guessing they won’t be pushing for anything radical, legislation wise, and will be busy just trying to keep their heads above water for the next 2 years. The Dems, for their part, are going to need some time anyway to organize (depending on how big their win will be). And I’m guessing, again, that the Dems won’t do anything TOO radical (wet dreams from the left about impeaching everyone in the administration and tar and feathering Bush, before railroading him on a slow boat to war crimes trials in Europe aside :)), either…so, from my own perspective the situation SHOULD be as optimal as it can get in the US…Bush’s hands tied, with the Dems nipping at his heals, but not really with enough power themselves to fuck up either. Stalemate! Woohoo!
They will piss and bemoan the lack of bipartisan civility as the Dems go wild with “witch hunts” and “fishing expeditions” to besmirch the reputations of outstanding civic servants.
Thing is, not all the Congressman chucking will be electoral. Once the Dems get the bit in their teeth, all of this simmering Abramoff related sewage will finally surface. Names will be named, indictments will flow, and viciously partisan lefties will chuckle.
Don’t get your hopes up too much. Remember how the Valerie Plame thing was going to bring the administration crashing down, and how giddy so many were aroud here when Libby’s indictment got handed down?
And keep in mind that the new Democratic Congress (assuming it comes about) will be made up of lots of new “DINOs”. I don’t follow the House candidates much, but if the Dems take the Senate, it’ll be by adding folks like Ford, Webb and Casey-- they’ll still go after Bush on the Iraq war, which Lieberman won’t, but otherwise they make Lieberman look like Ted Kennedy on a number of key issues. Ford, in particular, is a very interesting kind of Democrat-- a guy who wears his religion on his sleeve and for whom “the Lord” rolls off his tongue as easily as “God”.
I read something interesting in this week’s Newsweek. Reporters were asking White House insiders what plans were being made for the possibility of the Democrats getting a majority in the House or Senate. They were told that no plans were being made for that possibility because everyone in the White House is confident that the Republicans will keep control of Congress.
Now normally this might just be a case of public optimism - never admit the possibility of defeat and all that. But with the Bush administration you have to wonder if maybe it’s the truth. Maybe these guys really believe there’s no possibility of things not happening the way they want them to. In which case the White House is going to wake up stunned on November 8 and have to start scrambling for a plan.
Or alternately, the rest of us might wake up stunned on November 8 when the news media announces that despite all previous polls, the “official” results indicate that Republicans have won every election in the country including some in which they had no announced candidate.
Nah. Insiders report that the WH is projecting a loss of somewhere between 12 -18 seats in the house. They’re just hoping for the low end based on the Republican’s better organization to get out the base. But the problem is, the base doesn’t do you much good if you lose the Indies, and they’re leaning 2-1 Democrat. The Senate is probably safe, but it could go to the Dems, too.
They have plans for what to do if the Dems take over, but no one is going to talk about them.
If they lose both, they’re screwed bowlegged. If they only lose the House, they are merely in grave trouble. The Pubbies have been running roughshod over the Dems in the house, clobbering them relentlessly with sheer numerical power, humiliating them at every opportunity. Karma is subtle, but payback is a bitch.
And then there’s all this Abramoff stuff, simmering delicately on the back burner for as long as Republican chairmen of Republican dominated committees could keep it there. I know there’s more, you know there’s more.
There shall be great weeping, and gnashing of teeth. Rending of garments and sudden, overpowering urges to spend time with one’s family.
Whoever thought that the Plame Game would bring the Bushiviks crashing down? It sucked, that was the main point. As a potentially destructive focus of investigation, it doesn’t even rate.
Maybe this strikes you as a crazy idea, John, but, well…all right, I’ll just say it! I think the Pubbies have been hiding a whole bunch of stuff. You know, blocking investigations, soft-pedalling, that sort of thing. A wild idea, I know, but you know how unhinged I can be.
With me so far? OK, I further think that the Dems might just take advantage of their position of power to pursue those investigations with some enthusiasm. With subpoenas. Under oath, penalty of perjury, all that good stuff.
My over the top conclusion: the Pubbies troubles are just starting. They’re gonna look back on the whole Plame thing like the Good Old Days.
