There are several reasons why there is likely to be a minority government rather than a new coalition after the May election. The LibDems need to detoxify, SNP have said that they will only go so far as confidence and supply, all other minority parties do not add up to a hill of beans, and both major parties deny the need for a coalition as either they are deluded enough to believe they will gain a majority or wish to maintain governmental purity to their own politics.
What outcome do you see for the governance of the UK over the next Parliament?
My thoughts- Labour and Conservatives are either in denial or just lying when they say they are certain to have a majority or will be able to rule without negotiating with smaller parties.
Labour further are misleading the public by suggesting that the constitution requires the largest party to be given the chance to form a government. It is quite clear that David Cameron will have the first chance to present a programme of government to Parliament if he believes that he can get support for it. He remains prime minister until resigning or losing a vote of confidence. Unless the number of other parties’ MPs make this impossible, he will have a chance whether or not he has more or fewer MPs.
Both parties would be hoping to do what Wilson did in 1974 and form a short term government and go back to the country asking for a greater mandate. As the royal prerogative to dissolve Parliament has been removed, this course is no longer open. Should either main party form a government, the minor parties could create a situation where the other parties could ensure the continuation of a government able to maintain supply but unable to make any major changes to current legislation without support for other parties. The only way this could be caused would be if the government votes to remove itself and joins with the opposition to vote for its dissolution.
Currently Labour is saying that it will implement its program and try to blame minority parties for their failure to pass legislation, but those minority parties could simply agree supply and make it clear that any support for further legislation must be negotiated and involve a quid pro quo.
There is a suggestion that the SNP may make it clear that it will support general Labour policies, but refuse to support Labour on any English legislation meaning no change to the current legislation for Education, Health, Housing, Environment, Transport, Sport, Art and Tourism, Local Government, Income Tax rates, and all other fully devolved powers. This would level a Labour Government only being able to legislate for such matters with Conservative support.
A lot depends on how the opinion polls are actually reflected not only in overall votes but in constituencies. Since, on present form, a minority government depending on “confidence and supply” but no further agreement, couldn’t (under the law on fixed term parliaments) couldn’t just choose a more favourable moment for a second election, but would need the active support of other parties even to get parliament dissolved, let alone repeal or reform the law, it looks like a peculiar stasis.
I’m all for a proper constitutional convention/review, but since Labour would need active SNP support for it, I can see how the Tories would play that (since they seem oblivious to the idiocy of the Unionist party chasing the Scots out of the Union through contempt and inanition) - and I hae ma doots about what the SNP would expect from it.
Still and all, Belgium apparently did better economically for the endless months it was in governmental stasis…
Difficult to tell, really. Relations between all the parties seems to be pretty dreadful, although a rump Liberal group could attach itself to Labour or the Tories, depending on what wing of that party is the least slaughtered at the polls.
I can’t see the Parliament lasting long, and another election in 2016-17, perhaps.
I do not believe there will be a minority government. If need be, a coalition will be cobbled together. I can well imagine the Tories, the Lib Dems, and the Ulster Unionists getting together.
I can’t imagine the Lib Dems coalescing with the Tories again - it’s been the ruin of them. More likely they’ll tag onto Labour regardless of whether Labour is in government or not in an effort to lick their wounds and rebuild their credibility as a left-ish party.
A more interesting prospect is if Labour comes out on top but as a minority reliant on the support of other parties - one wonders whether a leadership struggle would ensue within the Labour party (not immediately but, say, 18-24 months into the new administration). Ed is not on the firmest of ground.
The Liberal Democrats have already lost a lot of left wing voters by forming a coalition with the Tories. If they form a coalition with Labour, they lose their right wing voters (me, included). The damage has already been done to one side of the party, there’s no reason to completely finish themselves off by agreeing to support a Labour government.
It’s not quite lying, just playing the political game as neither wants to blink first.
It would be a PR open-goal if either Miliband or Cameron came out and started talking about coalition… it gives the other side chance to mock them as not having the confidence in their own policies, and it further strengthens the smaller parties as they can start putting in their demands now before the manifestos are published.
I think the most likely outcome is a Tory minority administration with a form of confidence-and-supply with UKIP, Lib Dems and DUP.
Labour have never had the blood lust against leaders exhibited by the Tories. The Tory sensibility is that Conservatism is so obviously ‘right’, anyone who fails to win is a total loser. Look at the disposal of leaders in the two parties since the second world war.
Churchill defeated at the polls but survived
Atlee defeated at polls but survived until 1955
Churchill retired ill
Eden removed
Gaitskill died
Macmillan forced out
Alec Douglas Home forced out
Wilson resigned ill
Heath defeated and removed
Callaghan defeated
Foot defeated and resigned
Kinnock defeated and removed
Thatcher removed
Smith died
Major defeated and resigned
Ian William Hague defeated and resigned
Duncan Smith removed
Howard defeated and resigned
Blair resigned
Brown defeated and resigned
That would take quite a swing to the Tories over the campaign. Most polls are suggesting roughly even vote percentages and pundits are suggesting that Labour’s constituency advantage being countered by its loss of Scottish seats.
Now LibDems will be lucky to get 30 seats and DUP 10. SNP look like they are headed for 30-40.
The LibDems need to detoxify and a period of supporting confidence and supply to a limited Labour government would do that.
The Tories could not hope to overcome a 70-80seat blocking LibDem/SNP anti Tory right wing agenda.
The Lib Dems are a left-wing party with largely left-wing policies and progressive supporters (albeit a lot fewer than they used to have). There’s absolutely no advantage to them trying to hang onto the right-wing while letting go of the left, particularly as their right-wing base is fairly minimal. They’ll spend an administration or two on the fringe, dump Nick at the first sign of a decent replacement, and hope that their former supporters eventually forget just how badly they screwed up.
Polls are moving daily, but the only combination that looks to secure a majority is Labour, SNP and Lib Dems which is unlikely. Con + Lib Dem + UKIP + DUP would get to 318 seats which is v close to a majority.
None of the other combinations get close to the numbers needed.
But I believe that that combination, Labour, LibDem and SNP is the most likely one to provide a confidence and supply government; in that analysis they would even have a majority of seats giving them some stability. All three parties are centre left and could certainly agree a budget and policies of the Health Service and Education.
No other combination is likely to come close to stability with enough potential anti votes to block any legislation.
Both Labour and the SNP are pretty vociferous about not being in coalition with one another (although as Wallenstein pointed out there are very good reasons not to announce this in advance). But I agree that a Labour/Lib Dem/SNP confidence and supply arrangement (especially if they drag in the few Greens and PC members) could be enough for a reasonably stable arrangement.
