It has been doing that already, that’s why Yushschenko won in the first place.
It’s going to be tricky, but it’s not like Russia has uncomplicated relations with any of the other ‘lost territories’.
Each situation is unique. Ukraine has been developing westward in many ways, obviously especially in the West, and can afford to take that road. I’m not sure Belarus is in that position, I think they depend much more on Russia.
Putin is a pragmatic. He’ll choose the path that suits him best. I’m starting to get disappointed in him though, he’s slipping - he was the right medicine for Russia but now he’s failing to let democracy grow and progress, and freedom of speech is going back to Sovjet levels. Disappointing.
But the important question is, will Russia start turning westward now? That is, will the Russian people start thinking that way, and subvert the plans of their leaders who want to form some Russian-centered alternative/rival to the European Union?
That is an important question, but I’m not sure if the Ukranian situation has a lot of impact on that. The only way I see that having an impact, is perhaps through the realisation that the EU is increasing as a political as well as economical force. The full impact of the introduction of the Euro is, I think, slowly starting to sink in. At least, it did in Ukrania, but I’m not yet sure about Moscow, it’s a different world. Heck, according to my colleague there, everyone uses ICQ in Russia.
I think Russians want democracy but don’t trust democratic leadership. After Gorby, they’ve pretty much felt drawn to strongman leaders (look at the affection lavished on Gen. Lebed). They have, I would say, serious national “daddy issues.”
Next stop appears to be a challenge in the Supreme Court, but off-line news articles that I’ve read suggest that even the Yanukovych camp doesn’t see much hope there.
