How will Tiger do at the Memorial?

Tiger has committed to play at this week’s tourney - 2 weeks before the US Open at Pebble. So far this season he has a T4, MC, and WD. What do you think he’ll do this week?

I predict a top 5 finish, but no win.

I think your prediction is solid. He’ll contend, but he’ll hit enough foul balls to keep himself from winning.

If he does win, look out at Pebble Beach.


If my calculations are correct, Mickelson become the #1 ranked golfer in the official rankings if earns about 46 more points than Tiger this week.

That basically means that he has to win the tournament (66 pts) and Tiger has to finish 5th or worse. If Phil wins and Tiger finishes solo 4th, Phil and Tiger will be a virtual tie for the the #1 ranking.

ISTM that Phil has had the ability to close the deal on several occasions this year - not seeing anything to tell me he will accomplish this week what he has failed to do on so many previous occasions.

Tiger is not doing well on the par 5s. I think he birdies 1 out of 10 so far. He is at -3 and will not ,make much noise in this one.
I think he needs to commit to a much heavier schedule to get it back. I doubt that he will.

He just birdied #11, and that makes 3/11 on par 5 conversion for birdies. He birdied holes 5 and 7 yesterday.

Apparently Thursday he failed to birdie a par 5 at Memorial for the first time in 8 years, or something equally ridiculous.

The leaders are at least -6 on par 5s. Tiger generally excels at them.

Tiger goes into Sunday 9 back. He would have to shoot a great score early and then hope for a wind storm.

He actually finished 19th; I was off by one shot, but I’m still counting that as a for me.

…And for the 6th consecutive tournament that both players played, Phil finished higher than Tiger (three of those were wins by Phil)

According to my calculations, Phil earned 13.64 ranking points and Tiger earned 4.46 pts

Neither player is playing next week in Memphis so the US Open is Phil’s next opportunity to overtake Tiger in the rankings.

If Phil wins the US Open at Pebble Beach, he will be the #1 ranked golfer, no matter how Tiger finishes. He needs 32 points more than Tiger to overtake Tiger.

If Phil finishes…Tiger needs to finish…or better to retain #1

solo 2nd, …4th
T2 … 6th
solo 3rd…18th

If Phil finishes any worse than a two way tie for 3rd, he cannot get to the #1 spot on the Monday after the US Open.

But due to the “depreciation” of points, every week that they don’t play, Mickelson gains a small amount in the rankings every week.

I wish NASCAR had a point system which scaled as steeply as that.

golf Ranking points are close to “linear” at the bottom but increase exponentially the higher you finish.

Here is the scale for the 4 majors are worth the most points to the winner (100 pts).

1st … 100
2nd … 60
3rd … 40
4th … 30
5th … 24
6th … 20
7th … 18
8th … 16
9th … 15
10th … 14
15th … 9.5
20th … 7
30th … 4.5
40th … 3.5
50th … 2.5
60th … 1.5

I believe the Memorial was valued at 66 points to the winner, and places would be scaled down according. Phil finished in a 3 way T5 and earned 13.64 pts (avg of 15.84, 13.2, 11.88).

I don’t think I can recall ever seeing a hole played like Mick played that - what was it - 15th? That double really killed him. Sometimes you almost wonder if he is really trying to win, or whether he just wants to make crazy shots…

I was surprised Rose hadn’t won before. Ricky (Hatboy) Fowler sure seems to have a lotta game and will win soon.

remember the tagline of Mickelson’s Ford TV commercials?

What will Phil do next?

I think he forgets that Ford is no longer his sponsor.