Let us imagine against a Clinton-Warner ticket.
How much do each base’s core relied upon demographics vote for or against follow the superficialities of race, ethnicity, and gender, and how much on what they stand for in terms of policy?
Race means little. It can goose turnout a little or maybe swing things a few percentage points, but not in a decisive way unless we assume a razor-thin, Bush/Gore-type outcome.
I figure the only things that really change in terms of demographics is that African-Americans vote about 11-13% for the Republicans and Latinos about 35-40% for the Republicans. But I don’t really know what whites do in that scenario, since I figure Warner probably plays really well among white voters and certainly delivers Virginia, which it’s hard to see Republicans winning without. Clinton/Warner also reeks of awesomeness on the experience front, in Clinton’s case the perception of experience(you should all know by now I’m not convinced about her experience claims) and Warner the actuality of experience as a businessman, governor, and a legislator. I think the experience thing would be decisive in such a race. Rubio/Carson is just too green and they reinforce each other’s weaknesses. They’d probably cause Republicans to do historically well among minority voters but they’d still probably lose.
it seems to me that if you want a second minority on the ticket it has to be one with credible experience. That’s why Nikki Haley is on everyone’s short list. Rubio/Haley brings youth AND experience AND a female on the ticket.
Just what percentage of Republicans believe Obama wasn’t born in the US? Is that encompassed within your “few percentage points”?
I think I agree with adaher. Rubio is weaker with Carson than without him.
Yes, if it’s Rubio than it’s in his interest to take the same course that Obama did and choose a sitting legislator with a truly deep resume to provide the appearance of an elder stabilizing hand.
Governor is better. I think that Biden’s appeal to Obama was based on a number of factors, none of which apply to any Republicans in the Senate. Due to the way the elections played out over the last 10 years or so, the Republican Senate roster is made up mainly of old guys and new guys, and none of the old guys are as likeable or as experienced in foreign policy as Biden was. However, there is a solid bench of GOP governors to choose from, most notably John Kasich, who has the best resume in the field. But really any of the GOP governors who have been in office for at least five years would do. You can’t compete with Clinton on foreign policy anyway, so no point in trying. Instead, beat her on bipartisanship, domestic policy ideas(she’s gone far left on many issues so she’s vulnerable to a fairly moderate GOP ticket), and likeability. Voters care more about domestic policy right now anyway.
Not really Two of the better post WW II presidents were governors (Carter and Clinton), while the two biggest stinkers (Reagan and Bush) were as well. It think it’s a wash.
I don’t think so. She’s well to the right of center in Democratic politics.
what, no borrowed guys or blue guys?
I don’t think Carson would add much as a running mate. The right may pay lip service to him now, but at some point pigmentation becomes an issue.
abortion would be for Rubio/Carson what death penalty was for Michael Dukakis: a position so far out of the mainstream (being against abortion in rape/incest and in Rubio’s case, womens’ health too) that it defeats them.
Also, an all non-white ticket, for a GOP whose base is low-info redneck types would be asking Hillary to turn WV, MO, and KY blue again (they were all blue in 92/96, and WV even voted Dukakis and Carter twice).
I wouldn’t be too surprised if Rubio gets the nomination, but I would be surprised if Haley ran with him:
That sounds like a dealbreaker. But I suspect Rubio won’t be looking for a woman or a minority in particular anyway. Mainly he’ll need someone with experience to reassure voters. Rob Portman has also been mentioned by many as a short lister, although that puts another Senate seat in play. Better to just go with Kasich.
That’s a pretty interesting story. I have to wonder if Rubio’s choice of campaign manager and associates will have wider-ripple consequences for him than just crossing Nikki Haley off the list of potential running mates.
Do you have any cite for this, or is this typical adaher I-want-it-to-be-true-so-it’s-true type logic? I can’t imagine a lightweight governor from a deep red state is on any Republican’s shortlist.
God no. She’d insist that federal employees answer the phone by saying “It’s a beautiful day in the United States”.
I don’t think it’s likely Rubio will get the nomination, but who knows. But if he does, there is no way a fringe extremist like Carson will end up on his or anyone else’s short list. The only reason Carson has traction at all is that it’s still early days. In the last election cycle, the celebrated winner of the Iowa straw poll was Michelle Bachmann.
Haley is fourth in Predictit.org for the VP nomination:
https://www.predictit.org/Market/1529/Who-will-win-the-2016-Republican-vice-presidential-nomination
This does not demonstrate that she’s on anyone’s short list. That said, I’m still a little surprised to see how many other randos seem to think she has a good shot here. Might be the Palin effect…
I will give her some credit for recognizing that it was time to take down the banner of racism from the Capitol grounds. But holy shit, listening to her talk, all she seems capable of is reciting sound bites that were fed to her, similar to Kelly Ayotte.
That’s not meaningless, but it’s also not really predictive in a traditional sense. Some of the more savvy players on that site bet on outcomes that they do not expect to come true, because they plan to unload the stock sometime between now and then, when the speculation of other randos happens to bump it up enough they can make a few bucks.
OH PLEASE, let the GOP ticket be Rubio/Carson! The slaughter would be without precedent. And not because of [del]Thirsty Boy[/del] Rubio but becasue of the terror it would instill in the voters to have Ben Carson that close to the Oval Office. I get that he is enjoying a moment in the polls but the longer this goes on the more people will reject his dimwitted somnambulent persona. Provided JEB! doesn’t recover and Kasich doesn’t catch on, I expect Rubio to be the nominee. I also expect him to have better sense than to pick someone like Carson.
From that list I would have to say I could see a Rubio/Fiorina ticket or Rubio/Portman.
A respected party elder would make the most sense and chances are that person isn’t listed there.
Kasich certainly qualifies. Graham too.