I predict this prediction will turn out to be hilariously wrong. The only way he comes close to anything more than 1-2% is if the Democrats nominate someone to the left of Bernie or if Trump is somehow forced out and there are a lot of angry Trump fans who aren’t satisfied with his replacement. Barring those two things (and at the rate things are going they are both highly unlikely to happen) he won’t even come close to 4-5%.
Uh, yes. Corporatist middle of the roader.
The president equivocated on fucking murderous neo-nazis. Anyone still supporting him is very much deserving of that label.
He also bragged about violating the consent of women on multiple occasions. And he spent years spreading a racist and evidence free conspiracy theory.
and yet with all that the Dems appear to be super scared they can’t beat him in 2020. ( all that stuff plus the really bad job he’s been doing for 2 years. )
I know! Almost as if there was a huge portion of America that was either stupid or evil. I wonder if there’s a useful term we can use to describe them…
Now, this makes me wonder if our old friend Vlad has taken a hand in all this. Not that I believe he made an explicit deal with Howard Schultz. That seems unlikely.
But I wouldn’t be at all surprised if some of Vlad’s disinformation crew has been tasked with placing how about Schultz? He’d be great! messages here and there, for the purpose of encouraging Howard to give it a go.
Why wouldn’t we be? He won 2 years ago. It’d be terrifying if there was a 1% chance he could be reelected… and the chances are a lot higher than that.
Um. “Kaberntsy”?
I remember two years ago when many liberals were brimming with confidence that after a few years of President Trump, the Republican brand would be so badly damaged that there was NO WAY he could win again, and that Republicans would have to hang their heads in shame, beg for forgiveness, etc. Do you now see how wildly off-base those predictions were?
Dude. Trump is very likely to lose, and lose big, in 2020. He’s a very unpopular president.
He could still win though. That is why I will oppose anyone who supports him.
I have a fire extinguisher and a smoke alarm in my house, and if you came into my house and smashed my smoke alarm and threw away my fire extinguisher I’d be fucking pissed off. Does that mean I think it’s likely that my house will catch fire tomorrow? No it doesn’t. But stay the fuck away from my fucking smoke alarm.
Um, no. There’s been one election since then and the Democrats kicked ass. There’s a long way until the next election, but current polls suggest Trump is highly likely to lose.
I mean, if your only point is that many liberals tend to vacillate between irrational overconfidence and irrational pessimism, cheerfully granted. But if your point is that events of the last two years should have changed anyone’s mind about Trump being unlikely to win re-election, I’m not sure which events you have in mind.
I have no interest in indulging your weird, cite-free and incredibly vague fantasies about liberals.
Yeah, I watched Howard Schultz on that Morning Joe slot.
When I first heard Schultz was thinking of getting into the race as an independent, my first thought was, “I wonder what the Russians have on him?” And Trump was so excited about it as they went through their kabuki dance with Trump “daring” Schultz to get in. What a trash show. (Is Trump ever involved in any other kind?)
But I decided to listen to what the guy had to say. Maybe I was cynically jumping to conclusions. They let him go on for a fair bit.
All I heard was a slightly more literate version of, “I’m a smart, self-made billionaire so I can’t possibly fail, and I alone can fix it.”
Honestly, Dems could drive a stake through this guy’s plans just by taking his own statements and interspersing them in an ad with all the same dumb things Trump said in his run-up to 2016. It’s virtually the same spew.
Most of our worries have to do with the flukiness of our Presidential selection system, where someone can finish in second place by millions of votes in the popular vote, yet win the Presidency courtesy of the Electoral College. A Republican has only won a plurality of the votes for President once since 1988, and he needed the advantage of incumbency to pull that off. Yet here we are.
His arrogance is very unappealing. I hope he goes away very soon. I’m already trying to figure out where the closest Peets is at. He’s leaving a bad taste in my mouth already.
I’ve heard of the coffee shops, but I don’t think I’d never heard of him. To me Starbuck is a Katee Sackhoff character. Anyway, it’d be like running Ray Kroc.
Edit: Or like Ray Kroc running, rather. And I assume that Mr. Schultz is cut from the same epithelial tissue as Kroc was.
I think that Trump has a very low chance of winning in 2020. But the odds aren’t the only thing you need to know about a bet: You also need to know the payoffs. And the payoff of Trump winning re-election is negative enough that I’m still worried about that very low chance.
Schultz doesn’t have a hope in hell of winning any of those states.
Schultz is a joke. His maybe-candidacy is a complete and utter waste of everyone’s time. To make any sort of headway, a third party candidate (or an outsider candidate like Trump) must at least be
- Charismatic, and
- Have some sort of clear policy positions, even if they’re simplistic and dumb.
Schultz is as charismatic as a dish towel and his only policy appears to be that he doesn’t want to pay more tax on his vast fortune. His campaign probably won’t even make it to the election before he surrenders to the inevitable.
So lay your bets.
Drops out,
Wins Naderish share, maybe 3%,
Or more?
I’ll take “drops out” having accomplished what he wanted to accomplish which is not winning an election.
He wants to sell the idea that economic populism and democratic socialism is a losing message for the Democratic party. As one of the few with the concentrated wealth and power in this country of course he believes that. The prospect of a president who embraces the economic progressive Left scares him. For him even Trump is better than that.
He is wrong of course. Optimizing millennial turnout and appealing to working class whites, especially the Obama-Trump voters, will work best with some economic populism messaging as part of the mix. Meanwhile there are just not too many Ds (or leaners) who will vote for Trump rather than vote for a D who is too Left on economic issues.