Huge traffic declines on right-wing media

[bordelond]

@Horatius

That gives me some small measure of hope. If [Trump] can lose anything even close to 20% of the GOP voters, he’s done for in the general election.

Thankfully, Trump doesn’t have to lose anywhere near 20% off his 2020 level of support. 5% will be more than enough provided a sufficient portion of that comes from battleground states.

A forecast of the 2024 US presidential election -- are the assumptions and results reasonable?

The post below is my original work. It is based on nothing more than past presidential election results from Wikipedia and the mathematical application of the eight assumptions laid out below. Compared to the work of professional pollsters and election modelers, this is a very simple and, frankly, perhaps naive model. Nevertheless, I have enjoyed the process of putting this all together. My apologies for the length of this OP. It is my hope that it can be the basis of fruitful discussion about …