Latest path is much lower than before. I know there is still plenty of uncertainty in the path. Cat three or above I will be ordered to evacuate to within 150 miles of Orlando all expenses paid. Is there anyone here in the Islands that will be impacted before the mainland?
Good luck.
Who is ordering the evacuation, and who is paying your expenses?
Is paying the expenses of evacuees common?
=Ulf, who has never been evacuated (yet)
I don’t know where you are in the keys, and I’ve hardly ever been to FL at all so I have no direct experience with any of this, but 12-15 years ago I wrote a review of a book about the Labor Day storm of 1935 (?–about then), which played havoc with the islands.
The author noted toward the end of the book that there were some significant logistical issues these days with evacuating people from Key West in particular–I think it had to do with the problem of getting enough gas to the end of the islands when you need to have traffic moving toward the mainland at as rapid a pace as possible. (IOW, not enough gas on the westernmost islands to get people to the mainland, so you have to truck it in from points east, which is dangerous and diminishes the carrying capacity of the roadways heading to safety.)
Anyway, hope they’ve got that problem taken care of since that book was written. It sounded…difficult. Again, good luck to you.
I say Fuck Irma! We are leaving Tampa own a short cruise to Havana on Thursday. She better track well north of Cuba.
Other than expense, about the only thing keeping me from making plans to retire to the Keys is the logistical difficulty of hurricane evacuations (because in that part of the world, it’s “when”, not “if”).
I work for DOD so, if ordered, the Navy will pay all expenses. Anything above a Cat 2 will call for an evacuation. I have stayed for a Cat 3 but never again. The estimate is 24 hours to evacuate the entire Keys and they do it in phases of Upper, Middle and Lower Keys. Visitors will be the first to go. I am in the Lower Keys and work in Key West. The main concern is storm surge as I lost my car in Wilma in 2005 which was the last real threat we have had. We are overdue.
The logistical problem is only one road in and out. Gas should not be a problem. It is a real conundrum for emergency planners as to when to call for an evacuation since it could put us in the path if it should change.
Down here in Cayman we are watching and hoping for a big hook north out into the Atlantic (sorry, Bermuda!). Adjusting the track further south is a bit worrying.
One colleague from the TCI is hoping all the more. Nowhere to go. Just batten down the hatches.
Hang in there Iggy. Now the models are showing a north hook before it hits the mainland. That is my hope.
I messaged my daughter in Orlando this weekend, knowing full well she doesn’t follow the news or weather very much. She had no idea that Irma exists. So I suggested she started laying in supplies of water, just in case.
I just looked at one forecast map this morning, and the track seems to have shifted to the south, possibly skirting north of Cuba on Saturday. Sorry about that, Butters… 
But it’s still days away, so who knows what may happen. Here’s hoping it turns and dies at sea.
Good luck. After seeing what happened to Houston and remembering Katrina, you will need it. Brave people.
Mind you, in California, people lose their collective minds when it rains more than 3-4 inches in an hour or two.
I’m hoping the European model is right, and she stays offshore, instead of hitting SC and NC.
Yes. This.
Butters, judging from this mornings update, you better have your bugout bag ready. As in ‘in the car’ ready.
Miami checking in. The latest models going deeper in time than NHC makes readily public suggest it’ll track between Cuba and Florida part way.
Then turn north and drive up the centerline of Florida all the way to Atlanta. :eek: IF that pans out THEN substantially everyone everywhere in FL will get at least some fun. At Cat 3 or better and wider than Florida the darn thing could maintain decent strength and a hefty rainfall rate all the way up while scrubbing both coasts pretty thoroughly. Not scraped-flat thoroughly. Just widespread damage & power outages thoroughly.
Or it might turn early and trash the Bahamas while we all watch, *a la *Matthew. Or turn late and drive up the Gulf to trash the MS/AL/FL panhandle area.
Hard to say which will pan out. They don’t much publicize the models beyond 5 days because they’re such a crap shoot. But I’m reminded of the old joke: “Yeah, Officer. I had to swerve 3 times before I hit him.” So far the models have swerved both ways and we’re still in the middle. :eek:
I happen to be on vacation from work this week and had long intended to take a driving vacation up the Atlantic coast leaving this morning. I’m now considering the advantages of using the drive to stage myself in Jacksonville on Friday so I can bug out northeast, due north, due west, or due south depending on what happens between now and then.
I can’t prevent the hurricane from doing whatever to my neighborhood or not. I can prevent being there at the time. The flip side is if the local damage isn’t catastrophic, I’d rather not be trapped on the far side of far greater damage mid-peninsula someplace.
I live in the mandatory evac zone for Cat 3 & up. So I’m probably leaving home anyhow if anything happens. Despite having a residence armored well above the average. Better to shelter nearby inland with friends or 500 miles away in a motel in the sunshine?
Decisions, decisions.
We’re in the West Palm Beach area, and are prepared to either hunker down or evacuate. Watching closely. Good luck, everyone.
I live in Orlando(ish) and I’m on vacation this week for my birthday. We had plans of hitting Cocoa Beach this weekend. I’ll have to keep an eye on things…I may need to go into work to help them get ready.
Your cruise may be shorter than you expect. :eek:
Both sets of parents are flying out of South Florida to stay with us. Yes, there is uncertainty but no, in their late seventies they’re not going to climb 20+ floors up/down when the power goes down.
Where I am, I’d much, much prefer it began doing the left hook, like, 12 hours ago. 'cause every moment the trajectory stays relatively flat brings it closer at closest approach overnight Wednesday-Thursday. Currently in the Watch, but could be in the Warning as soon as tomorrow.
To make matters sweeter the relatives who may need assistance are all scattered across the island so anything that makes roads impassable will create serious issues with them. Dad for one, is one of those stubborn-assed old men who refuses to leave his old house, but you just know he’d call in the middle of the worst to say come get me.
Island gov’t and Feds are already rolling the emergency plans, shelters have been set up and will begin receiving displacees late tomorrow/early Wednesday depending on forecasts, evacuations will be ordered tomorrow. USS Kearsarge is on alert to pick up supplies and move from the Gulf to the Caribbean for relief efforts.
Biggest concern for largest number of people here, if impact is close so there’s bad wind damage, is the power grid. It is widely understood to be in a bad shape due to poor maintenance since it was last put to this kind of test 19 years ago. We’ve had glancing passing effects and Tropical Storm impacts in the years since but not major category hitting directly or grazing close since 89. Then there’s the flooding in low lying areas, of course. A good number of crops are fruited but not ready for picking, including coffee, citrus and plantains/bananas and that would be a nasty hit. A hurricane churning on theparticular trajectory we are talking about will disrupt shipping resupplies until it moves north of the Gulf/Florida ports (nobody wants another El Faro).
The car is fueled, there’s canned and dry supplies and water, there’s 4 weeks’ worth of prescriptions. Will let y’all know as I am able how it goes down here.