Hussein disappears=victory?

Great Debates
1

So now that the Iraq invasion seems to be a foregone conclusion, we can figure that Saddam Hussein, having seen the writing on the wall for some time now, will eventually hightail it into his underground network of tunnels/bunkers, assuming he survives the initial stages of the war.

Suppose he pulls a Bin Laden, and simply disappears? Does the US declare victory once a regime change is established, or will the war go on until Hussein is either captured, exiled, or killed? Given the difficulty tracking down OBL, this doesn’t seem to be a purely hypothetical question. (Apologies if this has been addressed here earlier. I haven’t seen it.)

2

Since W. doesn’t mind him going into exile, I think him disappearing would be just fine with him as well.

3

I don’t think that’s true. Hussein escaping into the wilds is very different than Hussein in confirmed exile in a known location. If the war effort were to stand down, I can only imagine it would be if Hussein was confirmed to be in a secure place where he could not harm anyone.

Much like OBL, but probably moreso, I expect that efforts to find him will continue, and thus the “war” will continue at some level.

4

Hussein vanishing would create a power vaccuum, and you can’t rule out the possibility of Civil War in a country as prone to fragmentation as Iraq.

Overthrowing Saddam is half the battle. The next, and fiercest, will be the race for the throne.

5

Hussein vanishing into the mists would create no more or less a power vacuum than Hussein being killed. Either way, the head of government has been removed.

As to the specifics of the OP, I think that the goal of the war is to remove Saddam and the RG from power, and to create a new government that promotes liberty and democracy and such. What, precisely, happens to Saddam is irrelevant to this goal to the extent that he has no power. If he’s dead or captured, then that’s great. If he’s simply gone without a trace, that’s a bit untidy, and I suspect we would continue trying to find him, but I don’t think it would affect the “success” of the war. Deposed by any other name would still smell as sweet.
Jeff

6

Agreeing with ElJeffe - the whole point here (as I understand it) is to remove Sadaam Hussein as the Iraqi head-of-state, and institue a new government. When/if that is accomplished, Bush & company’s goal will have been achieved, regardless of where Hussein himself ends up. That said, I think the coalition forces would prefer that he be killed or captured, rather than go MIA - to have Mr. Hussein in hand would lend a sense of finality to the victory, and avoid nagging questions about any future terrorist action on his part.

This is quite a different situation from the one with Osama bin Laden, who is not a governemnt official; the idea with attacking him was his capture and prosecution, not deposition. In that he is still at large, that attack failed.