It’s as simple as this: If he was going to toss his hat in the ring, he already would have done so.
He doesn’t even seem to be going out in public, let along running for president.
Feel free to disagree with me, even though this isn’t the Pit.
It takes a lot of energy to run, and I think he just doesn’t have it in him. Plus there’s the fact that he ran twice and wasn’t that successful. I also think it would gut him if he ended up losing to Trump. I agree with you that, at this stage in his career, I think he’d rather be a cheerleader than a contestant. He could still be a powerful ally to someone like Kamala Harris or Corey Booker, both of whom would need a reliable salesman in the Rust Belt, which Biden would be.
He’s literally been traveling for months, with reporters in tow (so, not in hiding or bedridden), and today in Delaware he made it clear that he’s already gotten approval, which was one of the most (probably the most) important hurdles he had to get past in order to run.
I think he will run.
If you’re running for President, there is no need to start your campaign 22 months before the election. A generation ago, it would have been considered crazy to do so. As recently as 2015, some guy named Donald Trump waited until June to declare his candidacy. He ended up winning.
Waiting could actually be a smart strategy. Those candidates who have jumped the gun and been de facto campaigning since last fall have plenty of time to make mistakes, and if they make one, it will be all over the news for a long time. (Lookin’ at you, Elizabeth Warren.) Biden keeps it low key, with no one paying much attention to him, while letting the crowd of political midgets snap at each other.
But he’ll run. His ego won’t allow him not to.
Asahi, ITA. I’ve always been surprised that he didn’t step down as Veep after his son Beau’s death. 
He just wasn’t the same after that (and I do know about the car accident that killed his first wife and another of his children).
I did see a tweet stating that if Biden did run, the tweeter predicted that something would happen that would basically send him from 60 to zero in 24 hours or less. Can’t disagree with that either.
Ooops, left out an important word up there in my intro–he got his family’s approval, is what I meant to say. 
Personally I hope he runs if his calculus leans that way; I don’t think he’ll run if he can’t see the math (primarywise… I think he’ll have a harder time against Democrats than he would against Trump).
I don’t understand what you mean by: “from 60 to zero in 24 hours or less.” Also, what sort of thing might happen that would send him there? Nuclear war? An itch on his arm?
Yes:
Ike didn’t even declare which Party he was in until 1952.
JFK announced in January of Election Year.
Bill Clinton announced in October.
George W. Bush announced in June.
And here it is, still February, and Biden has waited too long? :smack:
I think he is likely to run. But not out of ego, so much as sense of duty. Many think he’s the candidate most likely to defeat the GOP candidate. We need him.
But the nature of campaigning has changed, even since Bill Clinton. You need to raise money so you can visit Iowa and New Hampshire multiple times before they choose delegates. If you don’t get to the donors early, someone else will. Donors want some sort of commitment that you’re actually going to run for office.
Biden can play Hamlet for two reasons. 1) Everyone knows who he is, so he doesn’t have to traipse through quite as many corn fields and visit quite as many town meetings to get his name out, and 2) he has a metric buttload of campaign funds left to draw from before he needs to go out and raise more (and some donors won’t commit until Biden does.) Meanwhile, he can consult with party bosses to see where he’s strong or weak, do a few research polls, examine the other candidates to see whose positions and personalities seem to attract crowds, and continue to do his own gut check.
TLDR, he’s pretty much unique among the candidates in being able to announce on his own schedule.
As I understand it, once you’ve officially declared, there are some campaign finance laws that kick in, that don’t bind you before you’ve declared. So it can be advantageous for certain sorts of candidates to declare late.
I post-dived on myself and found this. Yeah, I know, I was wrong.
He’s finding more energy than we thought.
Well, you got the " doesn’t even seem to be going out into public" part right… but I bet not for the reason you were thinking back in Feb '19.
Don’t beat yourself up - I started a predict next year thread back in December.