I hope you’re right but speaking as a citizen in a country with a “what have I done?” moment three years and three months ago with little to show for it, I fear you are not.
Javier Milei is discovering that he’s not Donald Trump in one important aspect: he’s not the president of the main global power, as DT was.
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We had a very important credit line with China, it’s about to expire, usually renovating it was just a matter of a few low level talks between the countries… but Milei and Milei’s ministers have been using Trumpian rethoric against China and flirting with Taiwan, so probably no more credit from China.
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Today many industries are receiving a letter telling them that the supply of natural gas will be interrupted. It’s very cold here right now you see and gas is use in stoves to heat houses, there’s a demand peak that we usually cover by importing gas.
BUT!, negotiations with Petrobras broke down and they are not going to sell us gas on credit anymore it seems, Milei’s trumpian rethoric against Brazil’s president Lula (Calling him “a corrupt Communist” for example) may have had something to do with that…
Who could’ve predicted that offending other countries will have greater consequences for a third world country than for the main world power?
Sadly though, from everything you say, Milei and his cronies will be insulated from this, as is always the case, so they’ll be shouting blame to the skies, while warm and enjoying their luxuries, which will both be sadly lacking for anyone not in the crony-stream.
Grrrrr.
It looks the gas situation will be sorted without affecting home heating luckily, but the affected industries will surely have a hard time, specially during this recession we are experiencing since Milei’s admin began (the number one thing people were worried about (according to polls) before was inflation, now it’s poverty and unemployment…)
There are reports, that I try to disbelieve because they cannot be THAT stupid, that the last administration left a gas pipeline in the last stages of completion, the current admin refused to pay the 15 million USD required to finish it (in order to get their beloved fiscal surplus) and now we’ll have to spend 500 million USD importing gas…
Here’s a poll that I found interesting and rather inexplicable. According to Morning Consult, which is a reputable polling organization, the majority of current world leaders have quite poor approval numbers. But among all countries polled, the two most popular leaders are Narendra Modi of India with 74% approval and 21% disapproval, and Javier Milei of Argentina with 61% approval and 35% disapproval. Contrast that with Joe Biden at 39%/53% and Justin Trudeau at 35%/58%. In the UK, Rishi Sunak is one of the lowest ranked at 25%/67%.
Is there something misleading about this or is Milei really that popular?
I don’t think so, I’m biased obviously because I loathe the man and so do all my friends and family, but the polls I’ve seen float around the 50% mark. (which is still too much, but we’ll see what happens in the next semester)
Now may be the polls I’m seeing are biased and that 61% is real, in which case may Diego have mercy on us.
I can’t change reality. But Frodo, thank you for your courage, and know you have our support. Stay optimistic. Stay strong.
Curious if you have any thoughts on the Mexican election. Argentina has a history of strong women politicians.
There might be some parallels with Narindra Modi in India, who is the most popular leader in all the countries polled, and by a substantial margin. John Oliver did an interesting piece on Modi on his show last night. Modi is popular in part because he undertook a vast program of improving the country’s infrastructure and launching a food distribution program for the poor. He’s also an authoritarian tyrant who ruthlessly punishes anyone who criticizes his regime, he’s allowed the gap between rich and poor to widen and tried to hide the effects by redefining what “poverty” means, and he’s practically running a pogrom against the Muslim minority in the country. So while some have reason to cheer him on, as Oliver said, he is at best a deeply complicated figure.
There’s obviously something about Milei that a lot of people like, just as there is about Trump. He could still be all the horrible things you say he is. He and his cronies do exhibit symptoms of being batshit crazy.
That’s precisely, emphatically, what Milei HASN’T done, he suspended al public works and it’s currently mired in a scandal about halting food distribution to the poor 
How’s it going @frodo?
Not good 
The omnibus law is going back to the lower chamber with a lot of modifications but at this point it seems inevitable that they are going to pass something, if not as bad as the original proposal, bad enough to do a LOT of damage.
I wanted to update this thread but not really feeling up to it lately, these kind of political developments don’t help with my depression.
A Gallup poll published a few days ago shows Milei with a 36% approval rate, probably too low, given the other polls but a sign that he probably isn’t too much above 50% if that.
Oh, I understand that feeling all too well (I lean towards anxiety rather than depression, but both are noticeable) and the changing political climate world-wide is an inducer of stress.
Yeah, kinda good news here OP. Milei is yet another Right Wing populist, who won his election by extravagant promises and blaming others. But he cant carry thru on those promises- so any smart electorate will kick him out next election.
Now a military coup being attempted in Bolivia, I THOUGHT WE WERE PAST THAT KIND OF SHIT DAMMIT.
And you just know that this right wing government, like the previous one under Macri when something similar happened, is going to at best remain neutral and probably help the coup.
All latin american countries have repudiated the coup attempt… except Argentina 
I’m glad to see that the coup appeared to have no legs, although a lot of the circumstances, posturing, and false-flag claims don’t bode well for stability. I’m of course stressed as per @Frodo that Argentina didn’t make an effort to show support, but, well, none of us are probably surprised now.
I only hope that the BBC-reported wide popular civilian pro-Democracy turnout during the course of the event, along with the short duration, sparks a moment of hesitation in Argentina’s Trump-wannabe, but all signs for both seem to point to such a self-absorbed obsession that the “that would never happen to ME” seems more likely.
They finally timidly repudiated it, without naming the country or the problem, sort of a generic “Coups are bad mmkay?” twit after it was clear that it was going to fail.
Bastards.
And the omnibus bill passes, reduced in many things but it still containing enough to really fuck up the country for a good while.
Again our only hope for the moment is that the administration’s evil is moderated by their incompetence.
Or perhaps that as time goes by and the expected benefits don’t materialize it becomes harder and harder for them to proceed…
All in all, things look bleak, and we can expect them to get worse before there is any hope of recovery.
My current personal situation will not be very affected, I’m in top 5 or 10 percentile of income (barely, probably) and I will be able to take care of my retiree mom, my sisters should be able to ride this too, for now, but they will be pressed hard.
As for the future… No idea if I’ll be able to retire in any kind of comfort, my late father was able to retire and have his health care provided for by the state, I very much doubt that will be my case, I guess I’ll have to start looking for ways to acquire more and more money to provide for that, may be work freelance on weekends and things like that (not something I look forward to)
Remember this? the dollar is now at 1440 pesos, Argentinian bonds are falling, and so are Argentinian companies stock in Wall Street.
As usual soy farmers refuse to sell the harvest unless the dollar is higher, pressuring the government to devaluate, but if they do that it will trigger inflation, with “low” inflation being so far one of the 2 things they could claim as victories…
Things are getting even more “interesting”, in the chinese curse way, as always,