So, there were a few of us in the march…
They are saying that there was more people in this one than in the one last year, so it seems like my fears were unfounded, for now at least.
Serious question based on the the strong support. Do you think that as time goes on, and the now no-longer-so-new government fails to deliver to any but maybe international supporters (IE the money) that the anti-fascist groups will grow stronger, or just more exhausted? I assume that the blame-game will be played, but will it be successful in your opinion?
The problem is that the anti-fascist groups have a serious crisis of leadership, so they will grow stronger but I fear that if no one appears to lead them that strength will not be used effectively.
I’m not sure I understand your reference to the blame-game, you mean internally within the opposition or vis-a-vis the government?.
Anyway at this point the government has one, and only one, strength: inflation is down and the dolar is somewhat stable.
The problem is that this depends on the dolar being about 30% undervalued, which needs constant selling of dollars by the government to keep the price down.
This requires fresh dollars injections that can only be obtained from the IMF and the IMF is going to request that that undervaluation be fixed as a prerequisite.
So, sooner or later there is going to be a 30% (at the very least) correction on the price of the dollar, which means a 30% devaluation of the peso and as a consecuence… inflation.
Can the government keep the dolar “planchado” (stable, but literally “ironed out”) until the mid-term election in November? if not they are in serious trouble.
Both honestly. Historically there’s the trend that oppositional parties tend to fight each other as much as the government, often with the government’s direct help, and they’ll blame each other for why they can’t “win”. Plus, as I mentioned upthread, I suspect the government is going to be pointing to one or more oppositional forces (or ideally an even weaker group) as the source of all the problems, IE scapegoating.
The opposition is disunited, not so much because of the blame game but more because of that lack of effective leadership I mentioned, plus the usual infighting that always seems to plague the left (something to which Peronists seemed to be more resistant (the fought but usually got together when it counted), but not anymore).
As for the government scapegoating somebody for their faults… they may try but I don’t believe it would work at this point, they got all the laws they wanted passed, that sucks but at least it leave them without the possibility of blaming anybody else for their failures.
Not that they aren’t going to try, they are as disconnected from objective reality as any Trumpist, but I don’t believe they will succeed.
Of course the other right-wingers may try and say that the failures are because of Milei’s faulty execution and not because of their right-wing ideas on themselves, that has a better chance to work, specially because left-wing ideas (while IMHO working better) haven’t solved our main problems either.
Thank you, that’s exactly what I was trying to figure out as an outsider and getting nowhere with the limited reporting reaching us.
You will be able to watch the same story play outbon the USA over the next ~6 years until the Fascists have consolidated power for a generation or three.
The playbook is very well-thumbed but still wins nearly every time someone tries it.
Whose faces were those in the video? People who have been “disappeared”?
Exactly.
Wrong country, in our case I suppose Uruguay can be the adult in the room.
Moderating:
Post is wildly off-topic. Stay on topic please.
I’ll hide it.
I think the cover of today’s Barcelona (a satirical newspaper, kinda like The Onion) says it all.
“Everything is going according to plan” (our MAGAT equivalents are fond of repeating TMAP (for the acronym of that phrase in Spanish everytime their idol slams his dick in a car door).
“Javier Milei celebrates that the rest of the world marches along with Argentina in our program of massive self-destruction. Fenomeno barrial (untranslatable).”
Inside, the article continues:
“The argentinians’ decision to dilapidate their present and future at the hands of an amoral and mentally unbalanced person full of resentment and cruelty, far from scaring the rest of humanity has become an incentive. So, now it’s no longer only one country but half the world which is prey of another moral and mentally unbalanced person full of resentment and cruelty. Which will be the first to disappear, Argentina or the West?”
I am guessing that Milei’s TMAP/“Everything is going according to plan” is similar to local descriptions of a “V”-shaped recovery, that the steep, sharp drops in… well, nearly everything, are all part of the correction and that there’s going to be a an amazing rebound once all the corrections are completed?
Are people buying it is probably the better question though.
Maybe something like “village idiot”?
That could be a charitable interpretation yes, less and less people are buying it but to my eyes is incredible that so many still do.
The commonalities with past right wing economic administrations is incredible.
They are now in the stage when the dollar is about to explode and they are saved by the IMF, in exchange of draconian budget cuts to most of everything.
This will, if past experience can be relied upon, last until they burn the IMF loans keeping the dollar at bay, while the budget cuts send the economy in an even worse recession.
Once the IMF loan is spent, they’ll go back to asking more, if they get them see above, when they can’t get more they’ll go away and blame the population for their failures.
No, it’s something of a catch phrase of Milei’s, it could be translated as something like “Small town sensation”, and he says it referring to himself, I’ve never understood if he says it ironically (as: I’m world famous and y’all thought I was just a local celebrity) or in some other sense.
Is this going to be another one of those situations where the rest of the government will “go along” because they think it’s better than a collapse (or as you mentioned upthread, they’ve been bought) even if it sticks them right in the repeating cycle you mention? Or does Milei have enough authority on his own to make it happen?
Between the power that congress voted him early last year, and the support he has in congress from parties in the right, center-right and center-anything-but-peronists he’ll be able to make it happen.
The left-wing view is that the right does this every time, not precisely because they think it’s going to work this time but because it allows them and their cronies to enrich themselves with cheap dollars, I used to think this was an exaggeration, but now I’m not so sure.
So a cycle of looting the nation and the IMF, followed by a second cycle of looting both if they can manage it, followed by a shifting of blame and letting everyone (but themselves) struggle through a cycle of economic collapse, and wait a generation until the “other side” fixes things enough (and let minds forget) to try again?