OK, I inherited a sum from my Father’s estate, several years agot.
I am willing to risk $35,000.
The Limitations:
[ol]
[li]I know nothing about investments.[/li][li]I STRONGLY believe that amateurs should not try to outguess professionals.[/li][li]Please do not say “401k”.** I want something I can access.**[/li][li]We may be seeing a recession, soon.[/li][li]I would like to see if I can profit from Trump’s Trade War. US stocks will go down.[/li][/ol]
Mutual funds, especially index mutual funds. When stocks go down, bonds go up. Look towards a bond mutual fund. Not especially sexy, but relatively safe.
However, if you’re going to go heavy on the bond funds because you foresee near term declines (& I don’t necessarily disagree with you), you don’t want to go too heavy on that side, put some of it in stock funds so you get the benefits of your mistiming the market (IOW, it will continue to rise for some months before going down).
Also, remember to check your portfolio & expectations every x months. Maybe in 12, 18, or 24 months you’ll be feeling more bullish & want to alter your mix to benefit from your expectation of a rising market.
You could look at this current thread for some ideas / suggestions.
Regarding your five points:
You should learn. Even if you’re going to turn it over to a “professional”, I’d encourage you to become versed in at least the basics of what’s going on with your money. It’s not rocket surgery.
I’d question your premise of having professionals guess for you. Look at something like an index fund to eliminate most of the “guessing” by anybody, amateur or professional.
What are your plans for this money? You say you want to access it. Why? Are you planning on using it for the down payment on a house or to pay for a kid’s college in the next couple of years? Is it your emergency fund for when life’s emergencies rear their ugly heads? Something else?
Certainly this statement is true. It’s ALWAYS true (except perhaps the times we’re already actually IN a recession).
This seems to conflict with points 1 & 2 above. I would discourage you from letting your political beliefs become too much of a determinant on your investing practices. YMMV.
The first question is always: what are you needs - what is the money for, and when? Do you want to invest for the long term, or are you prepared to risk losing it all to try to win big on an aggressive short term bet?
You’ve stated 5 conditions. Quite honestly it seems like 4 and 5 directly contradict 1 and 2. If you strongly believe that you, as an amateur who knows nothing about investments, should not try to outguess professionals - then why are seeking to do just that? In 4 and 5 you’re saying that your analysis of the economy and of the risk of Trump’s policies (well, tweets) is better than the market consensus.
I’m not passing judgment on your view - you may well be right - but your ground rules seem to be mutually contradictory, so I don’t really know what to make of it.
I second the index-fund recommendations.
I also strongly recommend that you re-think your point #2. The professionals are not nearly as smart as they would like you to believe.
They don’t do it anymore, but for some time the Wall Street Journal ran an experiment that should forever put paid to the idea that financial professionals are special.
Yes, but to clarify your point - it’s not that amateurs can be as good as professionals. It’s that they are equally bad - that almost nobody beats the market.
So it’s also points 4 and 5 that the OP should reconsider. In other words forget about trying to guess short term market fluctuations. Instead, adopt a long-term passive investment strategy tailored to investment objectives and risk tolerance.
Put it all on “Red” at a roulette table. Hope for the best!
This.
And to follow through on this point: the professionals charge management fees for their services. And since they aren’t any better than index funds, they are by definition, worse.
May I suggest I-bonds?
You can put in up to $10,000 per year, and you are guaranteed a rate of return that is equal to inflation plus a little bit. You can get your money back at any time, but you get a return that is pro-rated over 5 years. It is a good hedge against inflation, it’s a better rate of return than a money market fund, and like a money market fund you can get all your cash back at any time. The potential upside it limited, but if you predict a recession, I-bonds might be a better bet than the stock market.
Personally, I put a portion of my savings into I-bonds as a hedge. It’s my emergency fund. If I need cash in the short term, I can redeem them without much in the way of penalty.
I think it’s a good thing to have in a diversified portfolio.
Rolex Daytona or a Patek Phillipe.
The real question is when are you going to need the money. If not for 5 - 10 years, an index fund would be good, understanding that if you need to take the money out during the upcoming recession you will take a loss.
Interest rates are heading up. The Fed is raising rates and the deficit might cause some to go up also. If you choose a bond fund, choose one that will track interest rates, and not be locked into current rates.
I have a lot of money in relatively low volatility funds that include dividend stocks, but I’m already retired. You might want something more aggressive for the long term.
It probably wouldn’t hurt to invest in some precious metals. But not all. Diversify.
I agree with the index-fund suggestion but as to how to invest, how about putting it in a Roth IRA? If it grows, the growth is tax-free, but the OP can still pull out the money if needed.
Thanks for the thread That’s about what I have to get to work for me shortly and I’m not hugely in need of access: maybe six months notice.
You mention “risk”, so I’ll add this:
What I did last year with about that amount, was study up on how batteries are made (for electric vehicles, etc.) and what materials are needed for them (eg. lithium, nickel, cobalt, aluminum oxide and copper…etc) and drop money into stocks of speculative mining companies focused on those metals. Some have doubled, or trippled in value (and I have sold those), other have suffered a slow burn loss and I am still holding, and over all I’m about 10% up. So I am still holding on to a few that I still have faith in even though the value is down. See what happens to them this year.
Oh yeah it also helps that part of my job is reading about new patents for battery technology. 
I want it accessible, in case of emergency.
And my views on the recession have been repeated by a few people on the news.
After all, 10 year cycle.
The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions.
I’d put it into ETFs. Easy to buy and sell like stocks, but they depend on a whole range of stocks, more realistically the market in general. There’s S&P500 for instance that contain 500 of the best performing US stocks. You can diversify with other ETFs that focus on more worldview or emerging markets, etc.
There can be dips, but the markets always go up in the long term.
I have invested in them since a few years to save up for the renovation of our house. One part I bought before the dip and lost 10% or so, I’m still looking at +8% for the last 12 months.
There’s a lot of overlap between ETFs and index funds. I think some ETFs have costs even lower than the low-priced Vanguard index funds, but I also believe buying and selling ETFs incurs transaction costs you won’t have in a Vanguard account, buying and selling Vanguard index funds.
But given the goals of the OP, I suggest he just put the money in bank CDs, perhaps a laddered set (ones maturing in one, two, three, four and five years) so he can renew them regularly. Since he wants accessibility, he should note that you can break a bank CD whenever you want.
If you think a recession is going to hit, then I’d suggest that if you do buy index funds with it, spread your purchase over a year or eighteen months, buying stock every month.
(I think we are overdue as well…statistically we are overdue…and every economics course I’ve taken or book or article I’ve read screams that a trade war will be bad)