For most of the past year, I’ve simply assumed that Joe Biden was a doddering, elderly, gaffe-prone, out -of-touch fool who would nonetheless hold it together long enough to win the Democratic nomination. Results form Iowa and New Hampshire along with many recent polls suggest that I overestimated him and now, certainly, a Bernie Sanders victory looks more likely than ever. Up to now, I think, most people have avoided talking much about what a Sanders administration would actually look like because they assumed it would never happen. But I suppose the time has come to take it seriously.
Some starting thoughts:
Vice President. Normally the job of the Vice President is to look pretty while sitting behind the President during the State of the Union address, to attend funerals that aren’t important enough for the President, and other such symbolic duties. But Bernie is on the old side and did have a heart attack a few months ago, so the chances of his Vice President becoming President would be higher than normal, and everyone would be aware of that.
Reasonably, a more mainstream choice night help reassure centrist Democrats and independents that the Sanders administration wouldn’t be too extreme. But since when has Sanders himself ever accepted that type of argument. His entire strategy is based on avoiding that type of thinking and sticking with far left positions. Thus, I incline towards believing that he’ll pick a left-wing running mate. Elizabeth Warren would seem like the most obvious name.
The Senate. Obviously to get even a part of his agenda passed, Bernie would need a Democratic Senate. Key Senate races will be in places like Alabama, Iowa, Colorado, and Maine. It is reasonable to wonder whether having Sanders at the top of the ticket will hurt the Democrats’ chances in those states.
There is an added wrinkle. If Bernie wins the Presidency then he has to give up his Senate seat, which would be temporarily filled by a replacement nominated by the governor of Vermont. Amazingly enough, the current governor is a Republican, though he’s up for re-election this year. His appointment would hold the seat for at most 3 months, after which there must be a special election. One tends to assume that a Democrat would be favored in Vermont, but strange things can happen in special elections. We may recall the Democrats losing a seat in Massachusetts in 2009, or the Republicans losing in Alabama in 2017.
Speaking of Massachusetts, if Warren became Vice President then her Senate seat would also be open. In Massachusetts there is no replacement appointed. The seat remains open until a special election, which must be 145-160 days later. So a Sanders-Warren ticket winning could actually cost Democrats two Senate seats in the opening months of the administration.
The Cabinet. Traditionally most Presidents have long experience in the mainstream of their party. They become friends with a large number of other current and former Congressfolks, governors, lobbyists, think tank researchers, and the like. Thus, when taking office they can tap a large number of people to fill their cabinet and then the thousands of other positions that need to be filled.
There President Bernie may face a problem. He has deliberately not had good relations with most Democrats, which is hardly surprising when you consider that he wasn’t a Democrat until a few months ago. Thus much like Donald Trump, who had few political connections when arriving in office, Bernie may struggle to find qualified people willing and able to take positions. Per Wikipedia, Bernie has been endorsed by 1 current and 1 former Senator, 7 Representatives, and 1 former cabinet official. (For comparison’s sake, Joe Biden has almost 10 times as many in every category.) It’s difficult to imagine Michael Moore or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez running a federal department successfully.
Legislation. As noted, if the Democrats don’t control the Senate, there’s little chance of passing any major bills. If they do, there’s still the filibuster to worry about. They could abolish the filibuster, but several Democratic Senators have already spoken out against the idea.
Judges. Justice Ginsburg is no spring chicken. Breyer isn’t either. So President Bernie might have two Supreme Court appointments to make early, on top of the usual number of appointments to the lower courts. Of course, whether he can push through those nominations will depend on the Senate, and also on whether he makes choices who share his far-left position on the political spectrum, or whether he’s more willing to consider moderate nominees.
Executive orders. If Bernie can’t accomplish much by legislation, his base will clamor for direct action by whatever means is available. It’s basically a rule these days that any significant executive action from the President draws at least one lawsuit from the opposing party. So we can probably look forward to a lot of protracted legal fights at the same time that we’re fighting over control of the courts.
The midterm election. All recent Presidents have seen their party lose big in the first midterm election after their election, except for George W. Bush who delayed that day of reckoning until his second term. By any reasonable prediction, if Bernie becomes President, the Republicans are likely to win and take back Congress in 2022.
