Not just me. CNN’s “Reality Check” segment today suggests that Trump is intentionally building up Bernie’s campaign because Trump wants to run against Bernie. He’ll paint Bernie as an extreme socialist, and he’ll coast to victory. Remember, in Trump’s world, truth is irrelevant. Image is everything. And Trump has the money to make that image stick.
GOP retaining control of the Senate is by no means a foregone conclusion–23 GOP seats are up for election this yearand at least 7 of those are considered to be tossups or lean R seats so if the progressives are doing their job and working with the Bernie momentum it’s possible to flip enough seats to win a majority. Only 12 Dem seats are up for reelection and most are safe as houses. IF America is sick of what Trump’s been doing then it’s not inconceivable that enough Dem momentum could result in a sweep. Weirder things have happened.
As for Bernie’s VP pick, he’s already said it’s going to be a woman and probably a WOC–most likely bets will be Nina Turner or Tulsi Gabbard, and Tulsi has already stated she’s not running for her House seat again so there’s no D loss if he taps her for VP. She has the foreign policy and military experience Bernie lacks, she’s young and tough and would make an excellent VP to groom to take the top spot. Nina would be a good fit too, she’s a firebrand and was offered the VP spot last election on the Green ticket but turned it down to continue working with Bernie. She’s young and a scrapper as well, either one would be excellent VP material.
I sure hope he wouldn’t pick Tulsi – picking one of the only Dems not to vote for impeachment (not to mention the only one who regularly goes on white nationalist TV (aka Tucker Carlson)) would be an awfully weird signal against this oh-so-corrupt and oh-so-hateful President. It’s awfully early to have any ideas about this, but I’d guess Stacey Abrams.
The only thing to take seriously about the upcoming election is that Trump will win it and half the country will be gobsmacked because it’s far too easy to sneak up on them. It doesn’t matter who gets the Dem nomination, Trump will get his second term and America will be one step closer to Great Again. Eventually. But only after a lot of good people do a lot of losing. Vote Dem if you want to (I will, but with no hope in my heart), but for heaven’s sake just don’t bet that way.
I think we agree for the most part. I’m just less optimistic than you about the fact that Trump is bleeding as much support as some want to believe. I’d rather underestimate the losses to his base and be wrong than overestimate and be wrong.
Looking at GOP support polls, the numbers are closer to 90% than the 95% I stated earlier. They do vary though. It strikes me as a realistic expectation that undecided voters galvanize at election time for their traditional positions. Better the devil you know, especially if you’re afraid of the Democratic Socialist candidate (per OP).
We’re properly fucked, aren’t we.
Right roundly rogered, in point of actual fact. But it only hurts if you tense up.
That 90% figure. It just makes me think “90% of what? …and when?” Statistics can be another form of lie.
NM
Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems to me that when Bernie was mayor of Burlington, he was able to get along fine with the business community there and when he made changes he got them to go along. And that was why he became so popular in Vermont. Yes, he talks the Democratic Socialist talk, but he knows the limits. Of course, no Republican would work with him, but no Republican will work with any Democrat. Obama was as centrist as they come and the ACA was essentially a warmed over Republican scheme, but no Republican was ever willing to give him anything. The only way to accomplish anything is to flip the senate and end the filibuster for good.
The legendary Jack Weinstein retired from the federal bench last week, at 98.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_B._Weinstein
Of course, he’s an outlier. But maybe Bernie is too.
Still, after the heart attack, I started to think that I’d vote for Elizabeth Warren in my state’s primary. Now it looks like that might be pointless, but we’ll see how it goes.
Bernie made a huge error out of the gate in the town hall last night. He gave a clumsy, transparently evasive response to the question of whether he would accept Bloomberg’s money as a nominee against Trump. In fact, it took two attempts for him not to answer the questions directly and honestly. I like his policies, always have. But I like him less and less as a potential nominee, the more I hear him speak. He is not the inspirational leader for the left who will unite the democratic and independent voters in a way that gives me a high level of confidence in his ability to beat Trump.
Sanders leads in 10 out of 10 national polls released since Monday — many of them from high-quality pollsters — giving him a firmer handle on the race. He currently sits at 25.3 percent in our national polling average — more than 3 percentage points higher than on Feb. 10 (the day before the New Hampshire primary).
…
With house effects factored in, these polls give Sanders an adjusted lead of anywhere from 2 to 15 percentage points. There’s simply not much ambiguity right now that Sanders is the first choice of a plurality of Democrats nationwide. Accordingly, if you look at who is most likely to get the most pledged delegates, though not necessarily more than half (we usually cite the forecast’s odds of a candidate getting a majority), our model is fairly confident it’ll be Sanders who gets a plurality
As in 2016, the thing that all the experts thought would not happen is, in fact, happening.
ALL the experts? In your dreams perhaps.
This didn’t actually happen.
VP: I agree Bernie is unlikely to pick a moderate running mate. Given that, I’m coming to agree that Warren would be the best choice. By traditional measures, it’s a horribly unbalanced ticket, with two elderly white leftists from New England. But Warren is so much better known than any other plausible candidate, she’s smart as hell and middle-class white people like her. I love Nina Turner and Stacy Abrams, but their resumes are awfully skimpy. Maybe Kate Brown, as someone said, or Tammy Baldwin. Raul Grijalva?
Senate: Agreed, if we don’t flip the Senate it hardly matters who the President is. I think Bernie will have as good coattails as anyone. Nevada, Arizona and Colorado have lots of young and Hispanic voters, Maine has lots of white working class voters. Assuming Alabama is a lost cause, flip those 4 and you’ve got the majority (with the VP tiebreak).
Cabinet, etc: Trump didn’t have any trouble getting qualified people to work for him, and neither will Bernie. Trump’s problem was getting those people to stay once they found out what a shitshow he was running.
Midterms: History suggests that no matter who we elect, 2022 will likely be bad. Let’s worry about one election at a time.