Is that “troubles” thing all worked out?
No, it’s not all worked out. There is still a good deal of sectarian violence on the streets, and in recent months there has been an absolutely horrifying amount of racist violence. And some Unionist controlled councils (Lisburn, Castlereagh, Ballymena) are refusing to share power with nationalists. OTOH, there haven’t been any explosions of note in quite some time. And Sinn Féin and the DUP, the largest nationalist and unionist parties respectively, are presently mulling over the terms of what is being described as the deal to end all deals.
This week may actually be pivotal in the peace process so stay tuned.
Conventional wisdom in the N.I. media is that 9/11 severely limited the IRA’s ability ever to return to any active military campaign and still retain a role in the “political process;” whereas they’d been able to bill themselves as a legitimate army in resistance before, that wasn’t going to fly.
The other (complementary?) line of reasoning is that they were beyond really wanting to carry on any war and were holding onto the weapons solely to keep some leverage/save face, with any actual military option being more and more impossible due to inaction, defection, aging membership, and the (supposed) increasing involvement of the paramilitary organizations in purely-non-military criminal activity (cigarette smuggling, etc.).
Google Jim Cusack of the Sunday Independent for what seems to be a pretty informed understanding of both the military and political state of play. There does seem to be a consensus that the Gerry Adamses and Martin McGuinnesses of the world have gotten a taste for “legitimate” politics and power and the glamour of being “European leaders” and aren’t going to marginalize themselves again, and that even the hardliners/dissidents (you’ll certainly see RIRA graffiti around Derry) can’t or won’t sustain any large-scale military campaign. I also suspect that the day-and-night economic differences between now and the 1980s (many (most?) houses in the Bogside or Falls Road now have satellite dishes and at least one nice enough car) make large scale militarism or sectarianism increasingly unattractive to most youth.
I’d say the first paragraph has some truth to it insofar as the IRA’s supporters around the globe (particularly in America) are concerned. However, 9/11 didn’t have diddly-squat of an effect on their supporters in Ireland.
The second paragraph … well … I think the desire for military action simply isn’t there anymore and hasn’t been for some time. I have no doubt that, at least until very VERY recently, the ability to carry it out was still there.
Oh God no. You don’t want to get any of your news from the Sunday Independent. It’s sensationalist cack, and Cusack is one of the worst peddlers of it. Even fierce opponents of republicanism in Ireland know to take anything they read in that paper with a large grain of salt.
Thanks for pointing that out. I was indeed thinking of the difficulties Rep. Peter King, say, would have had in pressing the U.S. case that the U.K. ought to bend more in negotiations with S.F. when the I.R.A. was on anything but a pretty definitive and quasi-permanent ceasefire, given the influence that he and other U.S. pols have been able to bring to bear in the past. The politics in Ireland aren’t the same, as you rightly note.
Re: Cusack, I should have said, he seems to have his sources within the security establishment, which means he has access to certain inside facts (which are no doubt, as in any bureaucracy, selectively leaked and tendentiously reported). Republican News certainly seems to bear little love for the man – maybe combine the two and arrive at a workable synthesis? Probably doesn’t work that way . . . .
I was in Belfast a couple of weeks ago, and, despite the problems ruadh lists, there was a real positive buzz to the place. We saw a massive anti-racism demonstration. I’m no expert, but I think the racist violence is only obliquely related to the ‘situation’ - people need an enemy.
And the city was absolutely full of goths. 
There are currently lots of rumours and hints that a major IRA decomissioning event is soon to happen, and the DUP might even agree to sit in Stormont with Sinn Féin. Not sure whether to believe that or not. Fingers are crossed.
Ostrogoths or Visigoths?
When I was in Northern Ireland last summer if no one was around to tell me, I would have no inkiling that there was ever any trouble. (I mean, I know there was, but there seemed to be no evidence of it to my eye). One of my friends though, owned a restaurant iin Belfast that he basically had to close down for a couple of weeks because some running battles took place between Protestant and Catholic factions sometime during the late summer. tYou could drive from Northern to Republic of Ireland as if it was one country.
But I cannot wait to go back, I got to stay in Blefast for a couple of days and Country Fermanagh for most of my trip and it is probably the most beautiful place i have ever visited.
Gangster Octopus :
My Mother is from Derrylin. Absolutely beautiful county.
Things are indeed going well in the North and I can’t see a reversion back to the bad old days of the “troubles”. That said, the recent violence against immigrants to the North should give everyone pause. There is no justifying it at all but if any place could use a respite from any new problems, however caused, then it is Northern Ireland. A large influx of new immigrants will cause further strain in a province who’s people are just learning to tolerate their immediate neighbour. A generation of calm is what is needed rather than the potential racial/ethnic/I don’t like you because you are different strife that large scale immigration can bring.
Something else that should be pointed out - paramilitaries on both sides have over the past decade or so discovered that there’s as much power, and far more money, to be found in controlling drug-dealing. Many of the ‘punishment beatings’, kneecappings etc that still go on would be simply identified as gangland hits in any other part of Britain.
It’s definitely related in some ways. It’s a fact that the racist violence is happening primarily in loyalist areas, and loyalists have long had links to British neo-nazi groups like Combat 18. And of course these are people that have spent most of their lives in fear of losing “their” country, so it’s not really surprising that some of them would react quite strongly to what they would see as other cultures impinging on their own.
How do you propose to prevent immigration to the North?
It is one country, it’s just a country divided into two different states.
Just to note that there has never been any evidence to link the IRA to drug dealing, and I know of no credible security or journalistic source (as opposed to tabloid writers and right-wing politicians) who believes that they are involved in it.
In my first post to this thread I referred to the Ballymena Council. It’s actually the Ballymoney Council I was thinking of … although I wouldn’t be surprised if the same applied to Ballymena as well.
Do you grant more credibility to stories of Republican fundraising through cigarette/petrol smuggling?
In your view are the stories of Loyalist drug dealing better substantiated? IIRC, I have indeed noted an elision whereby a specific instance of drug dealing attributed to a Loyalist (e.g., Billy Wright) was followed by subsequent “non-denominational” references to “paramilitary involvement in drug dealing.”
Well, not to every individual story that gets reported, but to the fact that this is a way republicans have raised funds, yes. I don’t think they’ve ever denied it.
Yeah, well, even loyalists admit it. Cite.
The main dealing the IRA have with drug dealers is when they are beating them or shooting their kneecaps or.
Other nationalist groups IIRC have used drug deals, such as the INLA.
Bank raids in the north and south were a very important sourse of funds for the 'RA back in the day.
kneecap off
The INLA and their supporters have always fiercely denied the drugs charges, for whatever that’s worth. I don’t know enough to say either way.
To get back to the OP.
It’s starting to look hopeful.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/4049871.stm
Let’s hope both sides can make the leap and close this fucker out.
crosses evertything
I hope that the optimism shown by others is not misplaced. My cynical nature tells me that there are too many people on both sides have only known violence. The adults now are the kids of yesteryear who were throwing petrol bombs.
I suppose the fact that Paisley is making less antagonistic comments is an improvement, but I wouldn’t bet on a real peace.
Don’t forget that the IRA have been on ceasefire consistently since 1997, and mostly since 1994. The violence on their end has already long ceased and nobody believes it’s going to start up again. If the deal falls through at this point it will be because the DUP aren’t really prepared to share power.