32 minutes ago
Polls vary – there’s no one number “in the polls.” Morning Joe using that 81% does not make it some locked-in truth – it’s one data point among others, as is Procrustus’.
Additionally, some individual poll results get vaulted up over others (temporarily in a given news cycle) because they make a compelling news story: “Oh noes! Kamara has work to do to get a sufficient portion of the Black vote! 89% or worse, and Trump’s marching back in! Oh noes!!!”
The Morning Joe analyst Heilemann could turn the prism another way and note: “Oh, but wait – if Trump loses one-and-a-half percent among white males – and it looks like he is – that would offset as much as a 10% drop in Harris support among black males. And the white women energized by Dobbs … Harris might be OK after all!”
Meh. Polls aren’t elections, and poll responses aren’t votes. Let’s see where we are in November.
I watched it.
Maybe you should watch it until you get that Augustus Corbett also cannot understand how some Black Americans can be this stupid.
Corbett said nothing that I haven’t seen said over and over and over in this bubble.
But please, continue with the ‘They’re out to get me!’ bullshit, it just shows how very bad you are at supporting any of your positions.
You have to really work hard to get that from what I said.
That is from yesterday, I cited MSNBC from today so which numbers should I believe? Oh I just saw its from Howard University.
No disrespect but MSNBC’s numbers are likely to be more accurate.
No, I think you made it pretty clear. You were assuming it’s to feed the hate of his base, to rally them. Just as nearly every pundit or political commentator is thinking and saying. You are in the bubble.
I’m saying that is not the point and you don’t understand.
The funny thing is that you are so close to finally “getting” it per your own words. You just can’t see past the fact that I’m the one that explained it.
Shit for brains? ‘Their stealing your jerbs!!!’ is to feed the hate of his base.
‘Their stealing the blacks jerbs!!!’ doesn’t feed the hate of his base which, fundamentally, does not care about Black unemployment since, as we all know, all Black baby mamas are on welfare and foodstamps and all Black bucks are millionaire rappers and crack dealers.
I’m telling you the black people that Trump was trying to target does not see things this way. I’ve gone into this for over a year.
They are aligned with maga on immigration. It’s about 10% of Black Americans, they like hearing Trump trash immigrants or migrant workers or asylum seekers.
The poll numbers that I cited from MSNBC prove this.You think things are like they were in 2016 or 2020.
I’m telling you they are not and most of the elders that held it together for the dem’s back then are gone now. The Clyburn base that saved Biden in 2020 is gone.
Can you understand that?
WE ALL UNDERSTAND IT!!!
What we can’t wrap our heads around is, to use an easily understandable example, why the fuck are German Jews in 1944 either voting for Hitler or thinking that not voting for the other candidate is a viable life choice.
I explained that they have forgotten the lessons our elders have learned, they don’t identify with that.
It’s a mistake of youth that most of us have made, but as a gen-x it was not a fatal mistake then like it is now.
They can’t see it and they are being influenced by the popularity contest.
That’s how Trumps horrible showing at the conference is being spun into a win to the target demographic.
You are not them, you do not get to speak for them.
I speak to what the polls are showing, as I’ve always said it’s not me saying this is the way it is. But I’m also not like you, I “get” it.
Pray tell, what is it I don’t get?
For clarity, let’s make clear that the 81% does not come from MSNBC’s numbers. MSNBC, instead, was citing (with on-screen credit) a recent CBS News/YouGov poll.
The specific citation is important because multiple news outlets will commonly cite the same poll.
…
I actually want to see what other pollsters besides YouGov have for “percentage of Black poll responses for Harris vs Trump”. Unless something is funny about their methodology or their sampling, there’s no reason to discount Howard University’s polling out of hand. I will check to see if Howard publishes their under-the-hood info about their polling – some pollsters do, some don’t.
And, IMHO, there’s lots of reasons to question YouGov’s methodology.
I’m assuming it’s the same methodology they use with their other polling. Ask questions of the people that signed up to YouGov to get paid pennies to answer polls.
You said it in the other thread, you think that Trump was trying to appeal to his base. I quoted you as saying that you didn’t get how that would work.
I had to explain and have been trying to explain, that show was not for the base, he has them no question. It was not for them as this board seems to have a hard time trying to wrap their head
around.
They saw Bidens support was down to 73% among Black American voters and tried to respond knowing that he could not win with that support so low.
Harris is now up to 81% according to the MSNBC cite I just linked, which is better but not good.
Everyone is asking why, and I am explaining, as I’ve been doing for over a year now.
Here we go. So now MSNBC is not good enough, but Howard University which is niche at best is?
I think everyone sees what is happing here. Any cite I provide is dismissed so that the board can stay in its little bubble.
No one would ever question the MSNBC cite if it came from anyone else. This is why I don’t bother to chase down cites any more.
No, I said exactly nothing like that. I questioned why his base of White racists would would give a single fuck about ‘’‘illegals’‘’ stealing the jobs of Blacks.
Trump talking about immigrants ‘’‘stealing Black jobs’‘’ instead of immigrants ‘’‘stealing jobs’‘’ in general was an unforced error.
Fortunately for Trump the electorate, and his in particular, has the ability to remember things that makes them envy brain damaged goldfish . . . crackers. So, in the end, it doesn’t matter.
Because as I’ve said, some black people are aligned with maga on the issue, and your quote clearly shows that you do not understand this.
That’s why you were asking what is going on, that you didn’t “get” it.
I’m telling you what is going on is that about 10% of Black Americans are not aligned with your take.
I provided current poll numbers that back this up, while all you are doing is attacking me personally.