I predict no more Arab/Muslim regime changes this year

The recent revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt succeeded because (1) public hostility to the regime was nearly unanimous and (2) the military was not willing to defend the regime. Even in the Arab/Muslim world, that is a very unusual combination of circumstances. Protests have been going on across the Arab world and in Iran and Senegal, but I don’t believe there is a single instance where the Egyptian success can be repeated, not this year. In Iran, for instance, the regime can count on popular support – if not a majority, then a very substantial and zealous minority. In Syria, Assad still has the army on his side. So does Gaddafi.

However, the protesters may in some instances succeed in getting the regime to loosen up a little, institute reforms, end States of Emergency, etc.; and in those instances, the reforms might start the ball rolling, so that the state in question can perhaps evolve into a real democracy over the years. Anyone disagree?

Why are you lumping Senegal - a long standing democracy - in with this? Senegal has fuck all to do with the Arab world protests.

Second remember the whole rebuke about extreme thread prolif. I’d reflect on that…

I have. I mentioned Senegal only because the Wiki page mentioned it as a non-Arab spinoff protest, like Iran.

Well Wikipedia is of *course * a great reason… Senegal has been a democracy for decades and has fuck all to do with all this Arab crap, whatever some idiot anonymous git editing a wikipedia page thinks. I suppose mere concurrence in time.

That article does NOT mention Senegal “as a non-Arab spinoff protest, like Iran.” It mentions that Senegal had a protest incident similar to the one in Tunisia: i.e., a self-immolation. A single Senegalese veteran set fire to himself over the issue of compensation for combat injuries. “Veteran’s benefits NOW” is certainly a worthy cause, but it does indeed have fuck-all to do with events in Tunisia, Egypt, etc.

This statement has fuck-all to do with anything here, but I felt compelled to add it.

George Soros is being interviewed on Fareed Zakaria’s GPS on CNN, and he says he would bet the Iranian regime “will not be there a year from now.” FWIW. He bases this on Iran’s large middle class and restive youth population, similar to Egypt’s.

Mmmm And George Soros is to be listened to… because he’s really good at financial investing and that obviously makes him insightful about Iran?

I could be wrong. Unconfirmed report says the army unit in Benghazi has gone over to the protesters.

The news from Bahrain seems optimistic, but I haven’t really been following it. I certainly wouldn’t bet on the regime holding out for the rest of the year.

Ahmedinejad’s days seem numbered, but that could certainly be a very large number. I’m hopeful that it’s within the year, but I’m not about to make any guesses.


I think Morocco is experiencing a more European style protest as opposed to an uprising like in Tunisia or Egypt. Same with Bahrain - the protesters don’t want regime change, but tangible reforms. That is how I have been reading it anyway.

I do think that Libya and Algeria will have new governments by the end of the year. I don’t know if they will be elected though.

Libya is definitely the one to watch now. I have an ugly feeling they may the North African equivalent of Yugoslavia. Reading Al-Jazeera, it seems a couple tribes in the south are threatening to disrupt oil production.

Found this article discussing the tribes and the coup attempts against Gaddhafi. There is definitely a good chance that if he falls, Libya would splinter into tribal areas. Which might not be that bad a thing.

I am having a wonderful vision of Hannibal Gaddafi and Gamal Mubarak ‘celebrating’ New Years 2112 in some out of the way resort looking at each other with ‘what the fuck happened’ expressions on their faces.

It was a bad thing for Somalia.

Another non-Arab country but I wouldn’t rule out a regime change in Nigeria. It’s a situation not dissimular to Yugoslavia - a lot of competing ethnic groups that don’t like sharing political power. There’s already ongoing violent protests and people being killed. A general election is scheduled for April and there’s certain to be a lot of people unhappy with whatever the results are.

Morocco is slightly different in that the ruler, King Mohammed VI, is fairly popular but the system in which he rules is not. The king has been an active reformer in combatting poverty, corruption, unemployment and human rights violations. The protesters don’t want to depose him; they just want to devolve more of his power to Parliament.

The problem with Somalia - well, a problem with Somalia is that international community does not recognize the splinter groups and keeps trying to formulate a national government. I think the area would be better off if Somaliland and the other regions were granted formal recognition and independence.

There are damn few natural borders in Africa, most of them imposed by the colonial powers. Proposals pop up now and then for a complete reshuffling like India did after independence, but it never gets support from the UN, IMF and other international bodies, but I don’t think you will see true development until that reshuffling occurs and the people get true home rule.

Hopefully, lessons learned in the breakup of Yugoslavia can be applied to places like Somalia - and Libya if it comes to that.

I think the UN may need a few more peacekeeping brigades soon.

Gyrate - that is my understanding as well.

He founded the Open Society Institute, which was a major premoter of liberal democratic reforms in the ex-Soviet bloc and has spin-off projects with similar goals in other parts of the world. I presume thats the reason for interviewing him regarding pro-democracy protests, rather then his financial acumen

I’ve been getting unconfirmed reports that Kadaffi has left the country.

And, who is resisting that?

Glen Beck who is the great American prophet, says Soros pulls strings all around the world with the intention of destroying conservative, bible following, right wing ,chosen by god countries. What more proof is needed?