Results of Arab Spring one year from now?

Great Debates
1

The Arab Spring.

There have been revolutions so far in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. I predict Tunisia and Libya will be more-or-less stable democracies a year from now. And open for tourism.

Bit more complicated in Egypt, it all depends on how stubborn/greedy their damned corrupt army decides to be; but I expect they’ll end up with a government dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood – and that won’t be such a bad thing – they’re really the rough equivalent of Europe’s Christian Democrats, they won’t try to turn any country into a copy of Iran or Saudi Arabia.

In Syria I expect full-blown civil war to break out this year; I do not predict it will be over a year from now.

Iran’s regime will continue to dodge the bullet.

So will Saudi Arabia’s.

Israel will pass another nervous year but none of this will touch them directly.

2

Libya might have a bit of rough going yet . . .

3

I think they’ll be lucky to end up like Turkey - elections, with the occasional military coup to keep things interesting.

4

I’m no historian but from my perspective these things always seem to drag on longer than anyone expects. I think we’ll be at roughly the same level of disclarity in 1 year from now.

5

Seconded. I compare this to the European Spring of Nations 1848. This looks like a tremendously important phenomen, but don’t be surprised if it takes some nations a 100 years to become stable democracies.

6

It is impossible to explain the culture of the Middle-East without accounting for the specter of European and American Colonialism on the region’s past. I think in fifty years, it will be impossible to explain the culture of the Middle-East without accounting for the specter of the Arab Spring.

Beyond that, I have no clue what the results will be. Could be the impetus of an Enlightenment that drags the region out of their current dark age, like what happened in Europe when the roles were reversed. Could be what sets off a clash of civilizations like what happened in Europe a few centuries before the Enlightenment.

7

That’s true. For instance, from one point of view, the French Revolution lasted 82 years.

8

From the German PoV definately.

9

This is the Information Age! Everything’s faster! Shirley it’s now possible to compress a generation’s worth of political upheaval into a Sweeps Week!

10

Sad to say…but it will enshrine a new crop of corrupt dictators, cooks, and thieves. Look what happened to Iraq (after the 1957 revolution (the king Ghazi lost his head). Ghazi was succeeded by General Kassem (who killed millions), and then by Saddam Hussein (who killed millions).

11

My husband worked in Libya and left 10 days before the Arab Spring. The Libyan company he worked for has asked him and others to come back. They need experienced engineers, (oil and gas) however, the company doing the asking doesn’t know when it it would happen. The Libyan Co. is trying to get in ASAP to get the systems back on line.

I give it a year at least before things get sorted in Libya, Tunisa is already askng people to come back. And seem to have a plan.

I found it interesting that there were violent clashes in Baharain, with the Bahraini government asking Saudi Arabia for troups. When the Arab Spring is spoken of, Baharain not so much. :dubious: US Navy any one??

12

The post-cold war world seems a lot less dictator friendly in general. Its a lot harder to find a willing superpower to prop up your corrupt state and turn a blind eye to your massacres these days. So one hopes it’ll be harder for the Saddams of the world to set up shop now then it was in earlier decades.

13

Am I the only one who thinks that the Arab Spring will be forgotten within a few years?

There is even an irony in the name “Arab Spring”: Western liberals declared it to be a new era, a long-lasting, permanent change. But spring is the shortest and most fleeting season, which soon ends. And that is the correct image for what is happening.

Yes, the springtime demonstrations toppled governments in Libya, Egypt, and (probably) in Syria.
But , to me, it doesn’t look like the replacement governments will be much better than the ones that fell.

In Libya, people are loyal to their tribe, not their country or central government. Qaddafi was a tyrant cruel enough to draw international attention. His successors will be smaller tyrants, restricted to a local scale, who will keep control of other tribes within their population by using fear of force, backed up by the secret police.

In Egypt, Mubarek was less of a tyrant, but his successors not be much better. Either the Army or the Muslim Brotherhood will seize control, and keep it by using fear of force, backed up by the secret police.

In Syria, the tyrant has not yet been defeated. But if Assad falls, his successors will be Islamic fanatics who will control the country by using fear backed up by the religious police.

The Arab Spring will turn into a long, cold winter–which will last several generations.

There is a way to measure the success of the arab spring : by clothing.
A year from now-or a decade from now-Stand in a public area in the middle of Cairo, Damasus, or Tripoli. If you are a woman–take off your hijab. If you are a man, pretend you are Jewish and put a yarmulke on your head. See how long it takes before you get attacked or arrested.

14

I am sure your view is shared by others with a stereotypical view of Arab people from a variety of nations.

Spring refers to the revolutions and demands for reform, not everything that follows. Are you basing your opinion on any factual in formation emanating from Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Yemen, Jordan, Syria, or Bahrain? I am guessing not but I enjoy surprises.

Yet everything I read about Libya shows a desire to nationalize everything and there is clear determination by the counsel to subdue these local forces. I do love your prediction though. It is wonderfully worded to make it impossible to verify.

You mean the Muslim Brotherhood will win free elections and run the country according to a system of laws, because that is the general trajectory despite a few hiccups.

Nothing I’ve read about the Syrian resistance leaders implies they are Muslim fanatics. In fact, the only place where Muslim fanatics seem to be doing anything is in “American-liberated” Iraq.

So fashion is the test of this revolution. Why is everything is freedom in the Middle East reduced to fashion?

15

Indeed, a reign in strain is painful for Bahrain.

16

Fashion is freedom, darling! You won’t believe the daring body armor that’s coming out this spring!

17

The assumption made herein is that whatever it is, there’s going to be a single result across the affected Arab states.

But I don’t see why that should necessarily be so. The fact that Egypt and Libya are both “Arab” glosses over the fact that they’re immensely different countries; they’re as different as are the United States and the United Kingdom, if not more so. Their histories are different. Their people are different. They didn’t even have the same “Arab Spring.” Why should I expect Egypt and Libya to end up the same?

18

:D;)

19

Well, there is already divergence since some completely overthrew their governments, some got minor concessions, some got major changes to their governments and some are currently getting the shit kicked out of them by their government.

The only reason why I would predict similar outcomes for countries like Egypt, Tunisia and Libya is (1) a desire to have elected governments, (2) nationalism over other drives, (3) success of similar types of right-wing parties.

If your frame of reference is the US vs UK then many differences can be identified, but if your frame of reference is the US/UK styles of government versus dictatorship, the governments of the UK and US look more alike than different.

Anyway, it won’t matter until all the women in Libya, Egypt and Tunisia are wearing thongs and pasties on the street while the men look like Hassidic Jews