Some of the perhaps more negative effects of the Arab Spring has already sprung up today in Egypt where the Israeli embassy was stormed by an angry mob and burnt. Is it possible that formerly Western-friendly and Israeli-tolerant governments will become more Islamist in ideology and possibly (with disastrous consequences) revive an Arab-Israeli War?
Power vacuums get filled. There are plenty of factions that want to take power. Power = money. It will take awhile to play out. It may not be good for us in the end. But those who claim the Arab Spring was a push toward democracy and friendlier governments were guilty of wishful thinking. I hope it turns out that way, but there is no democratic history their lifetimes to build on.
The notion that more democracy=friendlier governments is incredibly stupid and serious proof of intense navel gazing. The Arabs didnt revolt so that the West would feel safer. I must say I find it more than tiresome to constantly have the Arab Spring’s worth assessed based on whether it serves Western interests or not.
What do you expect, though? I’m a Westerner, and so are most of the people on here. I’m going to judge things as good or bad depending on how I’m affected.
Well, that’s something that constantly puzzles me on this board, as it seems to come up regularly. The obvious answer about wondering if the Arab Spring is beneficial to the people actually revolting is wondering whether it will improve their life, not mine.
I’m not trying to play Jesus or Yoda here but the lack of empathy it suggests is troubling.
Egypt: Destabilization. Corrupt has replaced corrupt, and probably not for the better.
Tunisia: Unsure. Maybe Capitaine has more-informed viewpoint? (For being a French, I mean.)
Syria: To be continued.
Libya & the NATO Adventure: Ask whomever it was selling oil to.
Yemen: Sounds like little changed.
Honorable mention since I think it pertains the discussion:
*Lebanon: Power-shift for the worse, but not exactly part of the Arab Spring.
*Saudi Arabia: It would seem that people are being inspired by the Arab Spring and hopefully some positive change will happen. Probably not, though, since our administration is so quiet on the issue. The Arab League et al would rather point fingers at Israel and Kaddaffy Duck.
To answer the OP’s question, I believe the region is less stable and an Arab-Israeli war (if not an intensified Cold War, complete with serious political and economic ramifications with smatterings of violence) is coming 'round the bend.
Also: Does anyone know if in every case, there was self-immolation? Is this how you protest in the Muslim world?
You’re troubled that people are seeing things from their own perspective?
Probably lots of dictatorships and terrorist training camps.
I’m troubled by people who cant see anything but through their own perspective, yes. Arent you?
We live in a stable country and our perspective is that of stability. Do you think Egypt and the other countries are more stable or less stable now?
So is Capitaine Zombie. Viewing things in terms of whether they’re good or bad for you is perfectly understandable, but kind of puts the lie to claims like “we went to Iraq to free the Iraqi people”.
That’s not to say that you made that claim (or agree with those who did), but if we’re going around freeing people on the condition that they serve our interests afterwards we’re not really freeing them at all.
Are you really asking if Egypt is more stable in the aftermath of the overthrow of its government? It’s self-evident that it’s less stable. Whether it will become more stable in the future as the result of recent destabilizing events is a different question.
To be fair, the OP asked us nothing about how we thought the Arab Spring would be for, well, Arabs.
I would have thought that would be a probable outcome. That is why I couldn’t understand why neocons would be supporting the uprisings.
We didn’t at first.
Why entwine the entire Arab Spring with the burning of an embassy by a minority of people in Egypt? I don’t get it. The violent expulsion of the Israeli diplomats reflects the anger the Egyptian people feel over getting their guards slaughtered by the IDF. It’s not much different than the Turkish response to their citizens being slaughtered by the IDF. I don’t see the embassy burning as a negative. It’s more of a “who gives a shit”. The Israeli government still has Netanyahu and Lieberman at its helm so this kind of thing is to be expected.
It is without a doubt that the democratically elected governments of Egypt, Tunisia and Libya will be more Islamist in the sense that their governmental concerns will reflect the will of the people. They may be vocally unhappy with Israeli policies as well - got any reason to believe it will go beyond that for Libya or Tunisia?
As far as worrying about what all this means for “us”. I see no reason to think anything other than the Arab Spring is super-awesome for the USA. They aren’t a threat to “us”. Hell, Egypt, Tunisia and Libya could get together tomorrow and through luck and genius wipe Israel off the map. It doesn’t mean anything negative for the USA as long as we play our cards right.
Good luck wiping Israel off the map.
You know what? That’s exactly what I was trying to get at.
In an ideal world, Israeli soldiers don’t kill Egyptian soldiers in Egypt. The Egyptian rioters are unhappy about the way the Egyptian governement works towards ideal world. I think both governement need to understand that in the new world shooting random Arabs will get you into more trouble than before. I see that as a positive regardless of the fact that killing will no doubt continue.
In an ideal world, Egypt doesn’t let terrorists cross into Israel from Egypt.
It depends on how much actual democracy results from the various revolutions. To be more accurate, how much of the will of the people is reflected in whatever governments take power after the various revolutions. And it also depends on what kind of policy new governments in the region then face from the United States and, not as importantly, other world powers.
In countries like Egypt and Libya we have a vested interest in a stable government which is basically more of the same with a new face in Egypt and more accomodating to our oil companies in the case of Libya. In Egypt the army control much of the existing power structure, Mubarak being just the latest army dictator going back to Nasser. The army top guys make a lot of money from US military aid and crony capitalism in Egypt and want to keep the current system going.
We’re happy to work with them and ironically the Muslim Brotherhood would probably favour a continuance of the current power structure with it becoming more accomodating to Islamist influence in Egyptian society. The Brothers would much rather have a government like that than anything that resembled a liberal democracy, the prospect of which I’m sure terrifies them.
The army love the two billion a year we throw at them so they’ll be happy to keep taking it and happy to accede to our number one wish, that they remain friendly with Israel. The army, the Brothers and various Salafist groups and the US would basically be happy with a continuation of the old regime with a new face that was more accomodating to Islam than it was previously.
The only fly in the ointment is the pesky Egyptian people. They really don’t look like they’re going to stand for more of the same and won’t be easily conned by any bullshit when the elections are held or if an elected party just go native and become Mubarak II. And they’re not going to be Israel-friendly. They’re not going to remain silent when the organ harvesters kill Egyptians or Palestinians and they’re going to demand that their government end the harvester blockade of Gaza, something the current Egyptian interim government have basically continued to support.
In the case of Libya it’s hard to believe that we haven’t made a deal with the rebel leaders to back them as the new government in return for oil concessions and access. A lot of those leaders are actually Islamist and your guess is as good as mine as regards how powerful the islamist rebel faction is compared to the rest of the rebels or whether they’ll fight amongst themselves once they get rid of the Gaddafi dead enders. Hopefully they’ll be able to form some kind of stable government without the whole thing falling into civil war.