Shall we start a betting pool on a) what will happen to him, and b) what will replace him? Is there likely to be any real reform?
There will be as little reform as the kleptocrats can get away with. And that’s up to the people’s will. Hopefully the minimum they can get away with will be a nice amount of democracy.
The thing to watch for now is the lifting of the State of Emergency as an absolute minimum show of good faith.
We know what has replaced him. A Military Council with The Speaker ‘in tandem’. The Speaker is, constitutionally the next in line.
But basically Suleiman and the military are now in charge. Suleiman will form the army’s preferred political party and from now until the elections they’ll do everything they can to tilt the tables. hopefully international election observers will be allowed in.
It will take couple of months for clean-up. Anyone who was instrumental in previous regime needs to be looked at. Keep the army and let the army recognize new reality - they will keep their stuff.
Establish professional government, people who know stuff. Get things back to normal and plan for future.
Then put Mubarak and his ilk on trial. Oh, how I look forward reading those transcripts.
The problem I see is that Western governments are way too deep into Mubarak regime so any possibility of co-operation may hurt. Actually, it will certainly hurt as now anyone can point to US or UK and say how can we do business with you considering that until yesterday you had all the cards with Mubarak.
The army is in charge. That strikes a fear cord in most people, but in Egypt they are the hope. The police are Mubarak’s thugs. The army, most people believe, was neutral the last 2 weeks. They have no other hope.
Al Jazeera is showing the people in the streets acting like New Years Day. Big celebrations going on. Spokesmen are calling for a trial for Mubarak and his group. They do not want him escaping with what they claim is 30 billion dollars of Egyptian wealth.
Suleiman is speaking for the political leaders. He asked for the army to take charge. Mubarak ran off.
Yes, and I think Sorour has only 60 days if there’s a resignation. As for Mubarak himself, I bet he’ll just fade into the woodwork. He’s got a lot of connections.
Thoughts from one of my co-workers, a former military guy and current history buff: “I heard that the younger officers in the military were all U.S. trained and as such were much more sympathetic to the democracy movement. Conversely, all of the senior military leadership (including Omair Suleiman) was Soviet trained and therefore you had a schism within the military on how to handle the demonstrations. Based on the current military response, it seems that the younger generation is prevailing, which I think is a good thing.”
Thoughts? I frankly confess to not knowing jack about Egyptian politics.
In political armies there’s always this kind of split. It’s more about proximity to the trough though. The generals have their snouts in. The next ranks down want to jostle them out the way for their turn. That’s why a lot of coups, including the one that overthrew Farouk, come from lower ranking officers.
“It’s more about proximity to the trough though” Unfortunately, I think you’re correct. Meet the new boss…
Problem is, no one is leading this revolution. No one can say what it stands for, rather than against. The people in the streets gave no clues as to what they wanted post-Mubarak, it was all, “Mubarak must go!” Do they even know what they want now? Beyond “democracy,” what kind of society do they want? They’re discontented with the power and wealth of the elite – will they tax it away, or what? Egypt is filled with educated, unemployed young men who made this revolution if anyone did – how are they to be provided with jobs? Does Egypt have state-owned enterprises that might be privatized? Private ones that any faction wants nationalized? Is the economy over- or under-regulated? No one has said, AFAIK.
uMMM
BBC is reporting that it’s the military council, the rest of it is all out. Looks like it’s Bye Bye constitution.
Again BBC is reporting sources indicating that this is now a military affair, all that constitution stuff is … theoretical now.
Mubarek didn’t run off though, he was pushed out the door by the military.
Bad idea, the military would be implicated and they’ll go ballistic. I’d say Western govs have fuck all to do with being in “too deep” - this is an Egyptian thing all the way.
CNN reports ElBaradei is saying “We don’t need to rush,” Egypt needs a year to prepare for elections. 
Why ain’t six months enough?!
Not that the Egyptian constitution was serving to limit the government’s power previously, right?
There’s no rule book now. That might be good. It might be bad. Naked military rule… I dunno, not often good.
Probably because no one has any fucking clue how it will be done, and no one but the regime and the Muslim Brothers have a really good network in place… Jaysus man, don’t be so bloody naive.
The most likely answer: Because that doesn’t suit ElBaradei’s motives. Maybe his faction doesn’t have quite the support he thought it would, and he needs time to work behind the scenes.
Elections were originally scheduled for September before the rioting broke out. Why should that change?
True. I think it will be up to the people in the streets, the sense of unity and the rough coalitions developed in recent weeks, to keep that military administration clothed in the momentum of the revolt. I’m hopeful. It was the people in the street that moved the military to this point.
I think it’s reasonable that opposition parties will need time to form, gain funding and explain their programme.
They’re starting from scratch after all with almost no democratic political structure. Elections in September would only give them 6 months - that’s a big ask.
Oh perhaps to have fair set of rules, unlike the electoral system set up under the old regime?
Mubarak ran. It was originally reported he was at his vacation vlilla but now nobody knows for sure.
Suleiman is Americas torturer. He worked for Cheney doing extraordinary renditions. He is a nasty sort but we owe him. He knows too much.
The people are expecting more say so in the governmental process. They have been following strong arm rules for 60 years. The first step is a new constitution.
The closest thing to a potential leader is the Google exec who was jailed. He wept on TV for those who died fighting a cause he may have initiated. Many interviewed on the streets ,said that spurred them into action.
Is this an attempted joke? Mubarak didn’t have a “fair set of rules.” It was a one-party state and the elections were rigged.
That’s what he said.