Egypt's first post-Revolution parliamentary elections Monday 11/28/11

Many parties contesting. The main blocs seem to be moderate-Islamist, center-right, and liberal-lefty respectively.

Meanwhile, it’s like Tahrir Square all over again in Tahrir Square. The protesters want military rule ended now. (I’m not clear on why they can’t at least wait a few days for the election results, and see if they’re honest and implemented. But it’s telling that UN observers won’t be allowed, last I heard.)

Anyone wanna guess how it’ll play out?

Monday will be the first elections held.
And the last.

15 years from now,a women in Cairo who dares to step outdoors without a wearing hijab will be be arrested.

(and let’s hope I’m wrong…)

You’re wrong. Today’s MB ain’t like that.

I wouldn’t like to hazard a guess as to what the future is. I think that it’s too early to tell (way too many variables).

That being said, I think it’s a terrible shame that the optimism that led the Arab Spring appears to have been replaced by a fear of the same old problems. Let’s hope that the worst fears are not met.

Haven’t we been telling you for months that Egypt’s new rule isn’t as great as it looks? Did you figure it out yet?

They better vote the way we want or say hello to our little army!

Looking at it from relatively near by, it has all the signs of a clusterfuck in the making. Just how the mess will manifest itself remains to be seen, but this does not look like it’s going to end well…

But, my gut felling (to second chappachula’s forebodings) is that the Arab Spring looks like it may be followed by an “Islamistic” Winter :()

We figured out from the start there really isn’t any new rule but the army brass, and that such might or might not be trustworthy to keep promises to hand over power to civilians, and that the Egyptian brass are remarkably rich and corrupt.

The voting is going OK so far. (“So far” because it’s a two-day voting period.) High turnout, only a few problems, no mention of the protests in the squares.

Well, the polls have closed, and the Egyptians got through their two high-turnout election days with no riots or violence. That’s something. A lot, under the circumstances.

Remember the definition of “free elections”:

The test of whether elections are free (and successful) is not the high turnout, and not the lack of riots.
The test is whether the people who lost are willing to live peacefully under the authority of the people who won. And whether the winners are willing to freely give up their power a few years later, if the next elections have different results.
Free elections don’t create a civil and peaceful society. First, you need a civil and peaceful society–then the elections will be free.

But the elections are the result, not the cause, of civil peace.

Well, let’s say this is the freest election the Egyptians could have had, this week and year of their history, under the circumstances. Almost the freest, there should’ve been UN monitors. For the rest, we’ll have to see. But it is already the freest election Egyptians have ever had in 5,000 years.

Chicken-egg. Civil peace is a condition of free elections, but free elections can be used to forestall a revolution.

Unfortunate results, the Islamists have taken two-thirds of the seats and the first round is in the more liberal areas. I wonder if Egyptian liberals might see a junta as the lesser of two evils especially one in the spirit of Ataturk.

A junta is the lesser evil vs what a country votes for itself? Anything to provide for western interests is justified I guess lol. If white people were ever oppressed by a military controlled by the middle east to ensure islamist cultural practices it would be instant war but vice versa hey that’s the lesser of evils lol. With this type of commentary there must be a male cow the size of the moon somewhere around here.

I don’t know that the results are nearly as unfortunate as the assumptions you seem to be making.

That is because the Western culture is superior to a culture or rather interpretation of a culture that practices subjugation of women and religious minorities. Look at Ataturk for instance.

ironically, your arguement is actually quite popular with many liberals. The ABB crowd (Anybody But Bush) were totally opposed to the Iraq war because it empowered the terrorists and made things worse. They preferred a junta (i.e leaving a military leader (saddam) in control,rather than to enable the Iraqi people to choose their own leader.

They love to point out that under Saddam, Iraqi women were treated better than now.
You claim that “what a country votes for itself” is better than the lesser evil of a junta, or of Mubarek/Sadat 's legacy.

So now, after the elections in Egypt, let’s watch the developments , and measure the results by the status of women. I hope that my original guess (post number 2) is wrong. But I am afraid that I will be proven accurate.(that 15 years from now, women will be required to wear a hijab at all times, under penalty of being arrested, or worse)

It looks like the Muslim Brotherhood will win big. And that must be a good thing, right?–after all, the Egyptian people voted for it.

But is that really fair assessment of the position and all of its factors? I mean, where in this calculation does a notion of 200K people dead and total and utter devastation of the country make a difference?

I bet you any Iranian democracy activist would rather work on a long-term goal of getting rid of the religious rule than a short-term that would cost 100K or more people dead and complete structural devastation of the country and the society.

Do you think that for ABB crowd, or anyone for that matter, the loss of human life play a role in opposition to a non-defensive war?

:rolleyes: Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood is not the sort of organization that’s going to turn Egypt into Saudi Arabia, or want to.

Don’t know how anyone can read what you’re writing here and be convinced of anything. Women’s status meeting our acceptable conditions is not equivalent to an entire nation being subjugated by a foreign power. Besides it’s a bit of a red herring, in most muslim states women can wear whatever they want. The more pressure they feel from the outside however the more they respond by being more extreme. Regardless if you think we want to control a junta for the sake of the women there let me be the first to break your bubble there…