Egyptian presidential election May 23-24

[BrainGlutton]

And today two (not the two) leading candidates squared off in a televised debate (ho-hum here, new thing there). And it quickly got acrimonious.

Former Mubarak-era foreign minister and Arab League chairman Amr Moussa pressed Islamist doctor and former high-ranking Muslim Brotherhood member Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh over the latter’s connections to conservative religious groups, suggesting in the end that if his opponent became president it risked a return to insecurity and terrorism.

Aboul Fotouh, who despite occasional shouting matches never seemed to lose his calm, countered that Moussa, as a former member of Mubarak’s regime, was incapable of carrying out the goals of the revolution that ousted his boss.

The two are among 13 candidates competing in the election, due to be held on May 23 and 24. Along with the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate, Mohammed Morsi, they are considered front-runners. Others include Hamdeen Sabahi, a Nasserist MP of the Dignity Party and longtime opposition journalist, and Khaled Ali, a human rights lawyer favoured by many young progressives.

Moussa, who has been campaigning throughout Egypt since Mubarak’s fall more than a year ago, is considered to be favoured by secularists, liberals and the so-called “silent majority” of the middle and upper class that eventually came to support the revolution but fears more unrest.

Aboul Fotouh, who left the Brotherhood in 2011 over ideological differences and in order to run for president, has pulled together an unlikely coalition of liberals, socialists, moderate and hardline Islamists and is seen as perhaps the best chance for the politically unaffiliated youth of the revolution to win a voice in the executive branch.

Well, it looks like Egyptian democracy is off to a go- . . . off to a start!

[BrainGlutton]

Egyptians gear up for election. 12 candidates, nobody’s expected to win a majority; almost certainly there will be a run-off in June between the top two finishers. I expect the Muslim Brotherhood (Freedom & Justice Party) candidate, Mohammed Morsy, will be one of them – the MB seems to have the best organization and the biggest base.

Wiki page on the election.

[BrainGlutton]

From The Nation:

Among the top contenders is Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a 60-year-old liberal Islamist and former leader of the Muslim Brotherhood. With a campaign that combines pro-revolution rhetoric and criticism of the military council with Islamist credentials, Aboul Fotouh has managed to appeal to a broad base of voters, building a unique coalition of support that brings together secular liberals and ultraconservative Salafis.

<snip>

Meanwhile, Aboul Fotouh’s former group, the Muslim Brotherhood, is promoting its own candidate, Mohamed Morsi, a 61-year-old engineer with a PhD from the University of Southern California and the president of its Freedom and Justice Party, which won roughly half of the seats in parliament last fall.

Morsi was not the Brotherhood’s first choice. In late March, the group reversed its earlier pledge not to field a presidential candidate by announcing it would nominate Khairet al-Shater, its leading strategist and financier, to run. When Shater was disqualified from the race two weeks later by the presidential elections commission over a politically motivated prison sentence he received under the Mubarak regime, the Brotherhood threw its weight behind Morsi.

<snip>

Morsi and Aboul Fotouh—the two leading Islamist contenders—are also pitted against the candidate long considered the front-runner in the race: Amr Moussa, the former Secretary General of the Arab League who served as Mubarak’s foreign minister from 1991 to 2001.

Moussa—perhaps more than any other candidate—enjoys widespread name recognition across urban and rural areas of the country. The 76-year-old diplomat has campaigned heavily over the past year, seeking to portray himself as an experienced statesmen that can bring stability back to the country and act as a bulwark against the rise of Islamist groups in post-Mubarak Egypt. In addition to the Muslim Brotherhood’s roughly 50 percent parliamentary bloc, ultraconservative Salafis won 25 percent of the seats in the People’s Assembly.

<snip>

Another candidate with ties to the former regime who has emerged as a dark-horse contender is Ahmed Shafik, Mubarak’s last prime minister. A retired general who once commanded the country’s air force, Shafik served as Mubarak’s civil aviation minister for ten years. He was named prime minister on January 29, 2011—four days after the revolution began. With support from the military council, he remained in the post after Mubarak’s ouster, but was forced out of office just three weeks later in the midst of mass protests against him in Tahrir Square.

<snip>

The most prominent leftist contender in the election is Hamdeen Sabahi, a socialist and Arab nationalist in the tradition of Gamal Abdel Nasser. Sabahi is also enjoying a last-minute surge in his candidacy, with an impressive roster of endorsements that includes leading intellectuals, artists and activists and a third-place finish in the Egyptian expat vote, capturing 15 percent, behind Morsi and Aboul Fotouh.

Meanwhile, the presidential candidate considered closest to the revolutionary youth who first led the uprising against Mubarak and who have continued to struggle against the military council that replaced him is Khaled Ali, a 40-year-old labor lawyer who made a name for himself fighting private-sector corruption and defending independent unions and worker protests. Ali spent his last day of campaigning by joining more than 200 people on a twenty-four-hour hunger strike in solidarity with hundreds of detainees facing military trials after being arrested in the wake of clashes with the army near the ministry of defense earlier this month.

[bahia_hombre]

Egyptian provisional constitution:

Egyptian Constitutional Declaration of 2011

[Tom_Scud]

Based on the Wikipedia page’s polling data, it looks like four main candidates, really - two old regime hands and two Islamists. Sabahi (the independent/secular leftist) is polling pretty far back. (So is Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, but he has the MB’s party machinery backing him). OTOH, the undecideds were running about 30% in the May polls.

If no one gets 50% +1 of the vote, there will be a runoff on June 16-17; that looks pretty likely to me, though I guess Moussa could pull it out on name recognition. Since the main candidates boil down to Islamists vs. old regime hands, it will be interesting to see if it ends up being one of each or two from one category in the run-off.

[Tom_Scud]

No official results yet, but the Muslim Brotherhood is claiming that their candidate (Morsi) finished first and will be in a run-off with Shafiq, so it will be an Islamist vs. old regime hand election.

[bahia_hombre]

Egypt results point to deeply divisive runoff race
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iQwXVsX_hUx-pjGUn2-O8corK0bg?docId=f602abfada424bcd96301bde80e1ca83

[BrainGlutton]

@bahia_hombre

Egypt results point to deeply divisive runoff race
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iQwXVsX_hUx-pjGUn2-O8corK0bg?docId=f602abfada424bcd96301bde80e1ca83

Well, that was to be expected. But it’s not entirely clear, yet, as to between which two candidates.

[BrainGlutton]

Almost certainly one of the runoff-candidates will be MB’s Morsi. Don’t panic. Let’s keep this in perspective. The MB is not going to stone adulterers or make women quit their jobs and wear burqas. That would be Al-Nour.

As for MB (or, in Egyptian elections, the Freedom and Justice Party):

Political platform

On launching the new party, the Muslim Brotherhood confirmed that it did not object to women or Copts serving in a ministerial post (cabinet),[20] though it deems both “unsuitable” for the presidency.[21] The group supports free-market capitalism, but without “manipulation or monopoly”. The party’s political program would include tourism as a main source of national income.[22]

The Freedom and Justice Party will be based on Islamic law, “but will be acceptable to a wide segment of the population,” said leading MB member Essam al-Arian.[23] The party’s membership will be open to all Egyptians who accept the terms of its program.[24] The spokesperson for the party said that “when we talk about the slogans of the revolution – freedom, social justice, equality – all of these are in the Sharia (Islamic law).”[25] There is rivalry between the Freedom and Justice Party and the Salafis, who regard the Freedom and Justice Party as having ‘watered down’ its values.[26]

It’s more or less the Islamic equivalent of Christian democracy. No CD party in Europe wants to reinstate the Inquisition or revive the Crusades. (And no sensible Egyptian wants to get so nasty with Israel that U.S. aid dries up – I understand we give roughly equal amounts to both countries.) And we have more than a few Republicans in the U.S. (not the majority of them, I think, not any more) whose gorge would rise at the thought of a female POTUS or a non-Christian POTUS. What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the shwarma.

[Tom_Scud]

Al Jazeeranow reporting that it looks like Hamdeen Sabahi (the Nasserist/leftist/anti-establishment candidate) fell short and it will be Morsi and Shafik.

[BrainGlutton]

@Tom_Scud

Al Jazeeranow reporting that it looks like Hamdeen Sabahi (the Nasserist/leftist/anti-establishment candidate) fell short and it will be Morsi and Shafik.

Al Jazeera now reporting that Sabahi is demanding the election be suspended over voting irregularities.

[BrainGlutton]

@BrainGlutton

Al Jazeera now reporting that Sabahi is demanding the election be suspended over voting irregularities.

Heating up now.

Unidentified assailants have set fire to the headquarters of Egypt’s runoff presidential candidate Ahmad Shafiq and thousands of protesters have returned to Cairo’s Tahrir Square to rally against alleged injustice in the election process.

An annex in Shafiq’s headquarters in Cairo went up in flames late on Monday, hours after election officials announced that the former premier, a symbol of Hosni Mubarak’s ousted regime, would square off against Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi.

<snip>

Earlier around 2,000 protesters had gathered in Cairo’s central Tahrir Square to protest Shafiq’s presence on the runoff ballot.

Al Jazeera’s Jamal Elshayyal, reporting from Cairo, said several hundred protesters marched during the day in the city of Alexandria, ripping down posters of Shafiq. He added that there were reports of protests in the cities of Suez and Port Said

“Now, we have protests here in Cairo, where about 2,000 have gathered in Tahrir [Square] and a few thousand are outside the headquarters of Ahmed Shafiq, one of the two candidates. And, in Tahrir, two other presidential candidates have joined the crowd, including Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate,” said Elshayyal.

[Lochdale]

@BrainGlutton

It’s more or less the Islamic equivalent of Christian democracy. No CD party in Europe wants to reinstate the Inquisition or revive the Crusades. (And no sensible Egyptian wants to get so nasty with Israel that U.S. aid dries up – I understand we give roughly equal amounts to both countries.) And we have more than a few Republicans in the U.S. (not the majority of them, I think, not any more) whose gorge would rise at the thought of a female POTUS or a non-Christian POTUS. What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the shwarma.

I think you are being very optimistic in comparing the, to the .CD’s. I hope you are right but again, I think you’re a little too hopeful.

[BrainGlutton]

@Lochdale

I think you are being very optimistic in comparing the, to the .CD’s. I hope you are right but again, I think you’re a little too hopeful.

A broader topic than the election. GD thread.

[BrainGlutton]

Fourth straight night of protests in Tahrir Square, demanding Shafiq and Morsy bow out of the race.

[A_nice_guy_with_an_opinion]

Here’s an election with results that I think more libs will be happy with…as oppossed to the Whisky recall.

[BrainGlutton]

Oh, great. The constitutional court just ordered Parliament dissolved.

In another setback for Egypt’s fledgling political process, elected officials have been disqualified and the lower house of parliament dissolved.

The court ruled on Thursday that one third of the seats in the Islamist-dominated parliament were invalid, stirring fresh uncertainty in the politically divided country.

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the country’s ruling military council, then announced that if any part of the parliament is illegal, then the entire body should be dissolved.

Egypt’s constitutional court also ruled against a law that would have barred deposed president Hosni Mubarak’s last prime minister Ahmed Shafiq from standing in this weekend’s presidential poll runoff.

After conflicting reports in Egyptian media over whether a third, or the entire, parliament was to be dismissed, Al Jazeera’s Rawya Rageh obtained a copy of the court decision, which explicitly states that the entire parliament is dismissed because of “constitutional violations”.

So, Shafiq is still in and Parliament is out.

Way to change the guard.

[BrainGlutton]

Very low turnout for the first day of the runoff election. Nobody seems to like the choices.

[BrainGlutton]

Morsy (apparently) wins – FWIW.

The Muslim Brotherhood has declared their candidate, Mohammed Morsi, the winner of Egypt’s presidential runoff, and unofficial vote tallies show him leading the race by more than one million votes.

The group held a press conference early on Monday morning to announce Morsi’s victory. With 12,793 of the country’s roughly 13,000 polling stations reporting, Morsi had 12.7 million votes, while his opponent, Ahmed Shafiq, had 11.84 million, the group said.

<snip>

The Muslim Brotherhood has declared their candidate, Mohammed Morsi, the winner of Egypt’s presidential runoff, and unofficial vote tallies show him leading the race by more than one million votes.

The group held a press conference early on Monday morning to announce Morsi’s victory. With 12,793 of the country’s roughly 13,000 polling stations reporting, Morsi had 12.7 million votes, while his opponent, Ahmed Shafiq, had 11.84 million, the group said.

<snip>
SCAF issues its constitutional annex

The new president will take office amid great political uncertainty.

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), Egypt’s military rulers, added to the confusion on Sunday night, when they released their long-awaited “constitutional annex”, a decree outlining the powers of the new president.

Those powers are quite limited: He may declare war, for example, only after seeking SCAF’s approval. The decree also reminds the president that he can call on the military to quell “unrest” inside the country.

SCAF dissolved parliament last week following a ruling by the supreme court, which found the legislature unconstitutional. The court ruled that provisions of the electoral law - which allowed political parties to compete for seats reserved for independent candidates - violated the constitution.

With the legislature gone, the generals reasserted control over the legislative process, and over the country’s budget.

“The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces shall exercise the powers referred to under the first clause of article 56 [the article on legislative power]… until the election of a new People’s Assembly,” the decree states.

The decree issued on Sunday promises fresh legislative elections, but not until a new constitution has been drafted. Before it was dissolved, the parliament appointed a 100-member assembly to draft that constitution; it will be allowed to continue its work, though if it runs into “obstacles”, SCAF will appoint a replacement.

The Muslim Brotherhood was quick to condemn the decree, calling it “null and unconstitutional” in a brief statement on Twitter. Asked about the decree during the group’s press conference, Ahmed Abdel-Atti, Morsi’s campaign co-ordinator, said he expected “popular action” against it in the near future.

[bahia_hombre]

Worried U.S. tells Egypt’s military to cede power

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57455519/worried-u.s-tells-egypts-military-to-cede-power/