Whatever mate. Ben Ali ran. Mubarak was shown the door and remains by all accounts on national soil. That’s not running by any ordinary non-gonzomax definition.
??? Is the word unlike so unclear?
It would give a major advantage to groups which are already organized which means the Muslim Brotherhood and the established party.
Whether or not he wants the job, he wants some other option than those two.
It’s not just a matter of the top job, but the parliament as well.
I don’t really intend a debate here, but this hardly seems like IMHO stuff, and it’s not exactly something you can get a clear and demonstrable answer about. So here it is.
I’ve been kind of holed up lately so I don’t really know a lot about what’s going on over there in north-africa/middle-east world.
Is it true that Mubarak’s resignation today was in part caused by what happened in Tunisia?
And is it likely that other regimes in the area are in danger as well?
How remarkable is it that two regimes have been done in without widespread violence? (I mean that as a question, not as an exclamation. Perhaps this happens more often (outside democracies) than I am aware.)
Apparently. :smack: Sorry. I think I read it as “like.”
Senility is i-cumen in…
Mubarak was far from weak but he was on the way out. Unlike other dictators he wasn’t stupid. He WAS able to see the writing on the wall. The choice was simple, stay and fight and probably lose or win at such a cost, he’ll lose all monetary aid OR just simply go somewhere and live quite comfortably for the rest of his life.
When Mobutu got pushed out of Zaire (now Congo) but that didn’t do anything but make the situtation worse.
Mubarak has likely already found a “safe haven” in some country that won’t extradite him, such as Saudi Arabia, remember how long they kept Idi Amin safe, and will go there in self imposed exile and be a footnote.
As for Egypt, nothing is likely to change for the people. It’s just trading one guy for another.
This is an interesting article from STRATFOR that kind of lays some of this on the line WRT the Egypt situation and how it affects Israel and the region.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110207-egypt-israel-and-strategic-reconsideration
Who is next?
I will go for Aleksandr Lukashenko from Belarus.
Mubarak did not get it. His speech announcing he was staying was proof that he did not understand. The patronizing language referring to his "children " that he led was insulting. As a dictator, it is difficult to imagine that you will not be in control until you decide. He does not get it now.
Egypt is way up in the air. It requires a new constitution for starters.It does not have institutions in place to oversee a peaceful transition. It has to rely on the army. That gives pause to all because the army rarely gives up power without a fight.
It could have been much worse, but let us not forget that more than 300 Egyptians were killed in this uprising.
Has there ever been a dictator throughout history that actually demonstrated an ounce of care for “his children”?
Tiberius . . .
I have merged two closely related threads and changed the title to indicate that each of them is here.
[ /Modding ]
From what I see on BBC etc. his safe have is Egypt. The military etc. keep referring to him as a war hero and he said he’s going to die on national soil. I got the sense that’s exactly his plan. Maybe his exile is in Sharm, but he ain’t going to Saudi willingly, that seems clear.
I suspect the army will quietly kill off any attempts to pursue him judicially. I agree, it’s just trading one guy for another, the Military just changed faces, that’s all. At least for the time being.
What’s happening in Tunisia where all this started?
I’m cautiously optimistic about Egypt’s future, although I admit I know so little about the situation, other than playing a lot of catching up to news bits here and there the last few weeks. I don’t recall any “Down with US” chants. I didn’t see any negative US demonstrations. Muslims are a presence, but I believe Egypt has always had a strong separation of church and state, and if they do have free and honest democratic elections, I think they will continue to understand the importance of keeping church and state separate. 40% of the people are under 25. Many kept chanting “freedom” over and over. I remember one Egyptian woman quite well saying, “The internet did this!” And in the background somebody held up a “Facebook” poster. I believe there are many with higher education, which can only help them and their country.
The Middle Eastern countries should be the most concerned; not near as much as the US. This could snow ball, particularly if Egypt gets a lot of this right. I think the Supreme Leader and the president of Iran should really be worrying. The Iranian people next time, like Egypt, needs to have the army on their side. What could go on in the Middle East, has the potential of being as big as the Soviet Union and satellite countries collapsing, I would think. I realize the potential for disaster too, but overall, I remain optimistic.
My heart certainly goes out to the Egyptian people.
There was a bit of anti American chanting when Biden said Mubarak was not a dictator and they announced a lukewarm backing for Suleiman. They were not in the streets to get more of the same.
The American administration was caught between Iraq and a hard spot. We may have been better served by the status quo. We had long term relationships that profited both of us. We knew it was wrong for the Egyptian people, but it worked for us and Israel.
However back in our greedy little hearts ,we knew Mubarak was another greedy dictator thriving off the misery of his people and American tax money.
??? Mate, BBC had plenty of demonstrators inteviewed who were right pissed about the US supplied tear gas and riot pellets being used on them.
?? They’re 90% of the bloody population for fuck’s sake. Jaysus.
Mmmm, from what I read the Egyptian state has paid salaries to both Muslim and Coptic religious leaders. I’d say this is an idea that’s pretty much alien.
It’s not going to be little America.
I particularly found this bit of interest:
I think that that play out was very much going on up to the final hours of Mubarak’s resignation - seen in the conflicting “Communiques” from the military and in Mubarak’s bait and switch speech to the announcement, not by Mubarak but by a somber Suileman, that Mubabrak was resigning after all.
This was, behind the scenes, perhaps another Nasser style Colonels Revolution after all. The “younger” generation of Egyptian officers (younger relative to the old Mubarak era guard but in their 50’s and 60’s, all American trained) stood firm, and the old guard ended up having no choice but to take the next generation’s word that their interests would be protected as enough to step aside.
That paragraph was interesting to me as well, especially since it appears to lessen worries about how the new government will act towards the Western nations as well as honoring the treaty with Israel.
Why the hell would Egypt want a war with Israel?
The great American teat is not the only reason why Egypt has honored the peace treaty. The real reason is that Egypt has next to nothing to gain and a lot to lose from war. When it comes down to it, who the hell wants to be at war unless they really have to be? Something like 60% of the country is under 25- why would they choose to send themselves out to die?
Egyptians are not a bunch of rubes. They have a human development index along the lines of Moldova and Honduras. Places like South Africa, India and Indonesia are way below them. In other words, it’s poor, but people watch TV. They have cell phones. They buy pop music. Many go to college. In large numbers they read books, live in cities, eat in restaurants, play FarmVille and do other things that we’d consider pretty ordinary.
What I am saying is that they are not a backwards-looking people. They can look at a map and tell you which countries are succeeding and which are not. The very reason why they had these protests is they realized that they have a shot at becoming on of the nations that are doing well. Why would they throw that away? It was the young educated people looking for greater economic and social opportunity who got this thing started. What evidence do you have they they would just chuck that all to the side?
They are not about to throw that away for no reason.