I haven’t seen this one, but don’t doubt it. As I’ve stated, I’m still playing catch up to much of the news, but most of the news I’ve been seeing has been positive. I doubt that those demonstrators represented the majority of Muslims in that country. The radical Muslims always have a reason to blame America for all or most of their problems.
I’m not doubting the 90% figure for Muslims either, but if I got the separation of church and state wrong, I could see where their presence would be felt, especially if most of them were radical. I may have misunderstood how another was stating this on a tv program not too long ago. And I don’t want them to be a little America. Egypt can be whatever it wants to be, provided extremists stay out of it and give them all the freedoms they want.
even sven, I am not predicting that such will occur, but assuming that various powers will not go to war because it is not rational to do so is often a poor assumption to make.
Those who have such fears base them on the fact that in large numbers Egyptians do not read. Period. Egypt’s literacy rate is only 71.4%. In comparison the Gaza Strip’s is 92.4% as is the West Bank’s, Jordan is 89.9% and even Iran is 77%. Yes, India’s is only 61% but Indonesia’s is 90.4% and South Africa’s 86.4%. Don’t let the selection bias of those interviewed for TV news shows fool you.
The fact that 20% live below the poverty line, not as many as in South Africa or India, but more than in, say Iran, or Indonesia.
The fact that many have endorsed the belief that there can be no justice for Palestinians while Israel exists and endorse many Islamist fundamentalist beliefs. And we have seen within our own political system, with a crowd relatively much more educated and much less poor, how attractive demonizing an other can be in forming a political movement.
No, going to war would not be rational, yet countries elect leaders who send their young out to die all the time.
Again, I don’t think that such is likely; I think it is fairly improbable. But worries about that in a country populated by a very poor, to no small degree illiterate people who overwhelmingly endorse some very fundamentalist beliefs, are rational fears to have.
I have no clear idea as to what you’re trying to say here. Most of the news positive? Most of which demonstrators? In the square? Where? What does ‘radical Muslims’ have to do with the hard fact that the tear gas and riot shotgun shells being used by Egyptian police were in fact American made and supplied? Or that the US gave that regime billions and billions over the years.
??? CIA Factbook online mate, the people you see on TV in Cairo are almost all Muslims. The country is. Make “their presence felt” - they’re the bloody fucking country mate. Jaysus.
And if they want the freedom to elect whomever they want… such as people you don’t care for?
Quite right, quite right. Sven’s logic simply illustrates why people like Sven don’t start wars.
Yes, and wars are not usually popular referendums. All it takes is a minority in control convinced the calculation is right…
Or in short, news flash: lots of people do not follow the political calculus or economic cost benefit analysis that educated middle class people do.
Nice post, and along my lines of thinking. Even Sven, I didn’t mean to imply what you said exactly. I meant that because the younger generation sees what they see and has what they have in terms of a modern culture, technology, etc like you said in conjunction with the fact that the article I posted mentions how the “younger” generation of the Egyptian military was trained and supplied by the US (IIRC we give them something along the lines of $1B a year in foreign aid) and that in turn would tend to make them more friendly to us (just like the Mubarak regime) and hence less likely to fall into a fundamentalist morass.
It’s positive in that the Egyptians got what they ultimately wanted. The army basically sided with the Egyptian people. They also got Mubarak out, which was their main objective, was it not? I have seen celebration after celebration, and especially after Mubarak gone, it being positive and peaceful, and many already repairing much of the buildings, walkways, hauling off burned vehicles, dismantling many temporary structures, all seem to be cooperating. Is any of this positive to you?
It has to do with reasonable Muslims not blaming America and thinking they wanted them turned on peaceful demonstrators just because America supplied a great deal of their weaponry. This is however, how radical Muslims or some other radical thinker would see it. Had another country invaded Egypt, and Egypt used its American weaponry to defend itself, would radicals been blaming America for their weaponry here too?
I don’t need to fucking check it, mate, Jaysus! What do you think I was saying when I stated, “I’m not doubting the 90% figure for Muslims”? What I’m saying, is if the Muslims are not radical, I don’t think their presence will be any problem.
Again, as I’ve stated, as long as they are not extremists, I don’t care as long as the majority of Egyptians get the freedoms that they want, and are not a concern to neighbors that don’t bother them as well. I seen more positive news today which said Egypt intends to honor its treaty with Israel, but I don’t know who is speaking for Egypt right now. I just seen a few minutes ago as well, to where their news done a 180 degree turn, and now showing the demonstrators in an entirely new light. Only future elections will give us a better understanding of what direction Egypt goes in, but getting much more exposure to other news outlets is especially a good thing.
On CNN they were speculating that one of the military junta’s generals might resign before the election, run as a civilian candidate for president and win, keeping things much as they are.
Sure, I was just trying to figure out your meaning from your murky experession.
Queer, if the US is supplying such to those security forces organised with the sole purpose of keeping the Mubarak regime in power, what pray tell did the US government expect them to be used on? The odd Indians strangely moving to Egypt to protest against the Singh government?
Wake up, that regime has been using violence on peaceful demonstrators for decades, it is a wee bit precious to suggest Egyptians (Muslim etc) are would be “unreasonable” to not draw the conclusion that there was an intent to see such used. This did not occur in a vacuum, it wasn’t a huge bloody surprise to see Egyptian police using flagrant violence.
One doesn’t have to be “radical”- I’d say one merely has to be… well not stupid to draw conclusions. No idea what radical even means here. If you sell things to people with a track record of using them on peaceful demonstrations, it’s pretty bloody ridiculous to claim it’s ‘radical’ for them to see intent on your part in the sale.
Radicals?
Anyway it would be right strange for Egyptian police to be using riot weaponry against an invading army. Might have some strange charm, but fairly silly to do.
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Well half the time I am puzzled at what you’re trying to say mostly, given how unclear your expressions are.
The statement “if Muslims are not radical, I don’t think their presence will be any problem” for example boggles as to actual meaning in a country that is 90% Muslim. I’m not sure what meaning that has. It’s like writing “Republicans at the Republican convention are okay if they’re not radical.”
I think the younger generation having much more modern military training - which emphasizes higher educational professional and technical training as well as traditional leadership and tactical skills - as well as greater exposure to Western ideals and practices - such as civilian control of the military - certainly played a large part. The younger officer corps knew that the current system was not sustainable. I don’t know if they will play kingmaker, so much as ensure stability.
Another major force in Egypt has been the rise of an independent secular judiciary, which commands great respect and had been a voice of opposition against Mubarak. One of the causes of the protests was the removal of the judiciary from overseeing the last elections, giving that power to parliament which ensured only establishment candidates won a majority.
I think that will be the next step of the military - handing over the electoral process to the judges, while they maintain continuity over administrative functions.
I also wonder how much this played a part in the uprising.
The report highlights the difficulties of the youth in Egypt - especially the university graduates who could not find gainful employment.
It is one thing to know your life sucks - it’s another thing to have it documented, quantified and learn how widespread that sucitude is.
If it was truly murky to you, it doesn’t hurt to ask for further clarification. Understand a person’s position first, then criticize it if you like. You’re a bit half-cocked, full of invective language, and really not understanding me when I use general terms or even basic expressions.
When I stated I didn’t doubt the 90% figure for Muslims you used and quoted me on, I knew we had a problem when you responded with this:
It’s non-sequitur. I already clarified I didn’t doubt the 90% figure for Muslims, but yet you were still trying to sell me that the country is 90% Muslim.
No, I make a distinction between peaceful Muslims and radical Muslims, which is what you don’t seem to be allowing me to do. I also used the term extremist Muslims in my post. There are many varying sects of Muslims, don’t know them all, just know some are more tolerant than others, while others definitely are very radical, extremist and violent in nature. Muslims being taught they will inherit 72 virgins by putting on suicide belts and going out to kill infidels, is one popular example of a radical or extremist Muslim, wouldn’t you say? Muslims who find women accused of adultery and being beheaded or stoned to death is plenty radical, eh? Not following a strict adherence to whatever radical form of Islam certain leaders expect of its followers and it possibly meaning a death sentence are the types of examples I mean by radical Muslims. It shouldn’t be a death sentence to write critical articles about Islam, or if one wants to draw a cartoon of Mohammad.
So as long as Egypt’s new government doesn’t cater to some strict adherence of a radical fundamentalist type of Islam, these Muslims and their presence should not be a problem. That’s all I’m saying, and have been saying. Many of these Egyptians seem to want freedom of the press, and a much longer list of freedoms they currently don’t have.
I don’t know Egypt’s history that well, but the Middle East is a volatile region, is it not? The fact the American people also supply their own police forces and military, doesn’t mean we expect them to use them on our own people that basically are law abiding citizens. Certainly not use violent force on peaceful demonstrators.
I don’t have any problem with Muslims reacting with force here to the Egyptian police who seemed to be the thugs from what news segments I caught. I don’t consider anyone radical for defending themselves.
Because it is an idiotic, non-nonsensical distinction.
I don’t know Middle East history either, but just following proper news in the past weeks tells me about a bit of the history. The American Government would have to be filled with utter idiots who know fuck all about the country they’re approving the aid and sales to, to give any credence to a simple minded innocent claim “we couldn’t expect they’d use tear gas and riot shotguns on demonstrators” given they have just such a track record.
As I don’t presume American decision makers are simple-minded gullible fools - and I would suspect neither would most Egyptians with any education - one can fairly count on the fact of a necessary wink-and-nod to the ongoing and violent suppression of even secular middle-of-the-road opposition.
That’s not the point, the point was that one hardly needs to be an Islamic radical or a “radical Muslim” to pin blame on the Americans (or the UK for that matter, but US was the one giving billions to Mubarak to fund his oppressive regime and its suppression). I certainly believe and hope that this will be a history to move on from but it’s right bloody naive to think there is not a direct basis.
You’ll have to translate. If you don’t find it important to distinguish between a Muslim carrying a bomb strap, and a peaceful Muslim, may I recommend you to do pat searches along the Israeli border?
America was giving 1.3 billion a year for Egypt’s military. The tear gas canisters came from a company in Pennsylvania that sells non-lethal weapons to foreign governments which I suppose this got approval from our government for their military, but Mubarak must have diverted the tear gas cannisters to his police. Where did the shotguns come from? Not sure what track record Egypt and it’s military has with its people, but Mubarak certainly miscalulated this time.
I can’t address the question directly, but it seems that both actions were key demands of the protesters (probably since,as BG inferred, they are inextricably associated with the late regime).
My Ouija board and Magic 8 Ball are unresponsive on the matter, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see an interim constitution-like framework emerge that would, among other things, govern how the elections are conducted.
To do it right, Egypt would have to have a constitutional convention. That would take a long time. They do not have that kind of time. How can the country be fundamentally changed within a 6 month period ,to become a new kind of Egypt?
Minor changes to the structure will just result in a government run by the army. There is nothing in place for an orderly transference of power to the people.
Over time political institutions will gobble up all the power they can. They don’t calmly relinquish it. I just don’t see anything resembling a democratic system is possible.
This is not good. There shoud be a free elction and the winners of the election write the constitution in conjunction with the minority parties. The army wanting to do it with a bunch of guys from the existing elite does not bode well for actual democratic reform.
America at the time had no army to speak of. The remnants of the Continental Army could riot Congress out of Philadelphia when unpaid, but they were not a real political force like today’s Egyptian military is a political force, and no generals were in a position to take over the government and enforce their rule on the people directly.