All projections have Dean running over Jamaica, then slipping right between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, and then it’s warm open water all the way to Galveston.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/175524.shtml?3day#contents
The media is careful not to overplay this like they did every storm after Katrina, but this really doesn’t look good.
I’ve been tracking the storm for the Houston office of the company I work for and this couldd indeed be the one Houston missed with Rita in '05. Worst-case scenario for this area would be landfall somewhere between Galveston and Corpus, as then Houston would be on the wet side of the storm.
If the storm makes it to US territory, landfall doesn’t appear likely until sometime next Thursday. I wouldn’t have any confidence in a predicted landfall location, therefore, until maybe Tuesday.
By sheer coincidenzia, I’ll be in the Northeast all next week. I should get back just in time for the cleanup, if everything goes the way it’s looking. I’m pretty sure my home’s location won’t flood, so the main worry is wind damage.
Yeah, we’re watching Dean pretty closely, trust me. TS Erin was a little warmup, and it flooded pretty bad here yesterday, with more rain on the way from the leftovers.
We bought our extra batteries and bottled water yesterday. We’re way on the northwest side of Houston, no worries about flooding at the house, but I’d prefer to skip any Category 5 excitement if possible.
Almost all the models have Dean hitting land in almost exactly the same spot Erin did. One model has it turning hard north in the gulf and crossing right over New Orleans.
I’m in Dallas, so I won’t get a direct hit. However, this is one thing TX does not need. We’ve had enough rain.
We really don’t want this storm to head towards New Orleans.
My favorite hurricane-watching website is this one, which has a whole bunch of views, including the spaghetti model. I sure hope that Dean doesn’t turn into another really nasty storm. All you folks in that area, please stay safe!
Right now, it is passing as close to me as it is going to pass. I spent the morning at the beach, flying kites with the girl. We should be getting a ton of water tomorrow, but not much more.
I would be a lot more concerned about Jamaica than Texas. It is still a week ahead, and a lot can happen to it until then. There is no way to know what will come from it. Too early to worry. Not too early to prepare, though. The season has started. Here is hoping for the best.
My parents house flooded in Allison, so they’ve already started moving essential items upstairs. They’re on the northwest side also, but alongside two bayou’s and in a historically flood-prone neighborhood. I’m not too worried about my apartment, I have renters insurance.
Only good thing that could come of this is a postponement of classes.
I’m on the disaster recovery team of my company so I’m supposed to be there before it makes landfall. Woohoo