So if the country is a plutocracy or plutonomy, and there is no realistic chance of making that better anytime soon how can a person invest in that? Principles be damned, I want in.
My brother invested some money when the stock market tanked, I think he doubled his money over a few years. Since we are a plutocracy, corporations are going to squeeze workers and put money into profits and cash reserves which will (I guess) cause the stock to go up in certain well established companies.
At the same time, is there any realistic chance of housing going back up anytime soon since people depend on banks to loan them money, and because homes are bought and sold by people not in the plutocracy? The easy lending policies of the fed may be over.
Since collectibles are mostly bought and sold by those not in the plutocratic elite, would those be a waste (unless they are really high end collectibles)?
If there is a trajectory to this countries economic path, how would investment strategies need to reflect that?
Or is the economy so global that it doesn’t matter? Investing in the consumer base in foreign countries could be an idea.
Or is there enough of a consumer base to keep this aspect of the economy going domestically?
I’m tired of using sticks I find in the park to carry my hobo knap sack, I’d like to have enough money buy an actual dowel rod someday. Plus a metal harmonica instead of the plastic one.
I have no idea what a good rate of return is. It seems in this economy there is ample unused capital, so I would assume returns are not that great. Is 6% realistic in this economy?
Yes, given sufficient starting capital 6% annual return is a reasonable goal. Hell, I could get you that in an annuity if you had enough to start with.
Believe it or not I am prohibited from giving specifics but yes, there are sectors in which you should be able to achieve that goal.
If you have 20 years, then just invest in the stock market as a whole (one way is through exchange-traded funds (called “ETFs”) that replicate a broad index (like the S&P 500)). The stock market as a whole has returned 10% over every rolling 20-year period since the Great Depression.
The trick is to not think you are smarter than the market–just put your money in, sit back, and shut up. If you invest in the stock market as a whole and have 20 years to invest, it’s always a good time to buy.
Disclaimer: My “advice,” such as it is, may be worth less than you pay for it.
I notice that one adviser who has successfully predicted the three most recent major stock market downturns is predicting another one. One strong indicator is “investor optimism” – the more optimistic investors are, the greater the likelihood of falling prices(*). Obviously, since the correlation with advice is negative, you may not be able to Google this claim easily via “Are stock market predictions pessimistic?”
Although that adviser uses “technical” analysis, another reason for pessimism is demographics. The Baby Boomers have huge stock holdings which they’re ready to sell and spend.
(*- One reason that optimism is bearish is very simple: If players are optimistic they’ll be fully invested and they’ll have no idle money to buy stocks with and drive prices higher.)
If U.S. stock market is not a good bet now, what is? Asian countries lack some of America’s problems. Land is one resource that won’t increase. These suggestions are worth no more than the cost of this free advice.
By “since the Great Depression” I think you mean to exclude time periods that begin in the 1920’s. This renders your “always a good time” self-contradictory.
I’ve demonstrated the fallacy of the Always Buy Stocks dogma in previous threads. The simplest counterexample is to consider the German Stock Market rather than the U.S. Stock Market. For much of the 20th century the factoid about the German Stock Market was just the opposite of that of the U.S. Market: If you held German stocks for 20 years you always lost money. :smack:
I’m not necessarily predicting that the early 21st-century U.S. stock market will mimic the early 20th-century German market. But it is wrong (and jingoistic) to dogmatically stipulate the contrary.
