How come we haven’t seen evidence of demographic change in Europe helping the more lefty parties in Europe? If anything, it looks like Europe’s center-right parties(and far right parties too) are doing better than ever.
Am I mistaken in seeing this, or is Europe’s situation totally different such that an increase in minorities won’t do the left-wing parties there any good?
The US Democratic Party is not a left wing party, they are centre-right at best. Roughly the same as most mainstream ‘right-wing’ parties in Europe, in fact, such as the Tories and Christian Democrats.
So there’s no transferable lesson to be had here.
“Minority” is also a meaningless term unless you look at the specific voting groups. In the U.S. the main minority group that will have a significant impact on electoral outcomes in the future is the Latino demographic. I’m not familiar with the demographic trends in Europe, but I highly suspect it’s very different.
perhaps, but don’t minority immigrants vote for the leftmost mainstream party reliably throughout the Western world? How come this hasn’t led to greater electoral success?
And dofe, I know that Latinos are not Muslims and so there are different cultures here, but if immigration itself, as well as policies that are friendly to the poor and minorities are common interests in both cases, it would lead to similar voting behavior. And from everything I’ve read about European politics, it does. Minorities vote Labor as much as they vote Democrat here.
So if their numbers are increasing, why aren’t Labor parties and their equivalents winning more often?
I don’t know if that’s necessarily true. Again, I think you are lumping various groups of heterogenous demographic groups into a monolithic and meaningless group of “minorities.” Remember, until very recently Vietnamese-Americans tended to vote Republican because of the party’s stance on communism. Same with Cuban-Americans (mainly because of the Republican party’s hard-line stance on Castro).
Again, “minority” is meaningless as a term if you’re trying to predict trends.
I get that it’s an overgeneralization, but statistically it still works. Saying that the GOP loses the non-white, or minority vote, is quiet accurate, even if some minority votes do vote GOP and others are pure swing groups.
The US != Europe
Seems you’re a bit confused on this. The two are roughly comparable, but not similar, especially in politics. After all, “Europe” itself is a vague word - do you mean the EC, the EC+Russia, the traditional West, the entire continent, other?
In regards to Latino voters, I’m confused as to what facts you used to generate your thesis. 
I can safely say that the Latino population in San Antonio is far more progressive than the white population. I would not be surprised if this is the case among the US SW Latino population.
You know what? It’s been a long day and I completely misread that post, Adaher. Just disregard my idiotic (and tired) reply.
I’m going to bed.
In terms of non-white voters preferring the more lefty parties, they are very similar. In terms of the white share of the population declining, they are also the same, and it’s happening in all of Europe.
Again, I apologize for overgeneralizing, but it is close enough to describing what’s going on. both in the US and in every European country, the share of the non-white population is increasing, yet we’re not seeing left-wing parties dominate there either. We are seeing changes, to be sure(anti-immigrant parties are on the rise), but we’re not seeing the kind of death of center-right or even far right parties that would normally be predicted by a declining white population.
If we were to see something like this happen, I maintain it would happen sooner in Europe, since the white population in Europe is shrinking not just as a percentage of population, but also in absolute terms: they just aren’t having babies. So if left-wing parties are going to dominate due to demographic change, we should see it happen there before we see it happen here.
Because racial/ethnic demographics in Europe are very, very different from those in America.
The voting patterns sure look the same. Are non-white voters voting for center-right and right parties in bigger numbers than in the US?
You tell me. They’re almost all “white” voters in Europe.
I’d say the voters in both regions are moving towards the center. The apparent difference is due to Europe having a left wing fringe and America having a right wing fringe. So they move in opposite directions to get to the same destination.
Europe now has a right-wing fringe too. In almost every country. And it’s gaining strength.
The reason is pretty simple. The conservative white majority is reaching their prime voting age while the immigrants are younger, and less likely to vote. However, as the article I posted noted (salvaging an otherwise worthless post), the numbers are, in fact, inching higher for Latino participation in the electorate. In 2008, with a charged base, Hispanics counted for 9% of the vote (with all non-white voters accounting for 26%.) In 2012, with a more subdued Democratic base, Hispanics increased their percentage by 1%, and minority participation of the electorate increased to 28% of the overall vote.
Here in San Antonio, this divide is stark. Following are two demographic maps which may help you understand what is going to happen to the GOP, at least here in San Antonio, TX (and likely for the rest of the State, too.)
First is a map of the male population (within census block groups), by age, divided in quintiles. You will note that the oldest population, signified by the darker greens*, is in that triangle bounded by I-10 and I-35, in the N-NE part of the city.
I can safely assure you that you are looking at the Republican base here in San Antonio. You don’t have to take this assertion as fact, but being involved in local politics as I am, I feel fine in standing behind that statement without any citations.
Here is a map of the % of Hispanics within these same block groups. Note how the dark green shifts dramatically away from the Republican base in the N-NE to the S and W parts of the city.
Now, if you can flip between these two maps, please note the following: There are vast sections of the city that are 90+% Hispanic where the median male age is less than 25. These sections are also larger than the white, older “majority.” And the evidence of this upcoming shift, Adaher, is that this county (Bexar County, TX) that went 56-44 for Bush in 2004 went 51-47 for Obama 2 elections later.
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=48&year=2012
*I know the guy who developed this site and I need him to change this.
Europe’s situation is totally different WRT “minorities.” Different history.
Actually it seems to be the same thing that we are going through with the tea party. An influx of immigrants or a Black Man in the white house, causes panic among those who feel their cultural dominance slipping away and so vote for reactionary politicians to stem the tide. I think all would agree that the far right in the US has much more power today than it did 10 years ago.
Long term, as whites become a plurality rather than a majority, this is unsustainable and self defeating, but in the short term, fear can have a galvanizing effect on those still in the majority, particularly if it’s a country like say France which although changing is still 85% while.
European mainstream conservative parties are not absolutely crazy. The fringe parties are, but not the mainstream. Thus, less people are alienated. The US GOP is absolutely crazy, there is almost no redeeming them. They’re practically a parody of themselves.
Look at places like the UK. That’s how a functional democracy works with 2 major parties that are sane. The US is where voting for repeal on a popular law 50 times and shutting down the government to the tune of $24 billion wasted dollars is a good idea
To a large extent, they are siphoning off votes from the mainstream conservative parties and its not surprising in the context of the current economic crisis and backlash against the EU. It also doesn’t hurt that some of them are economically populist like the FN in France.