I see you are one of those who agree that Obama is likely to lose a public debate with Gingrich. You may or may not be right, but Obama hasn’t any real choice. If he refuses to debate, or shows up and refuses to respond to anything Gingrich says, he loses by default, and rightly so.
If Gingrich mentions the deficit and Obama’s promise, and Obama responds by mentioning that he hasn’t fucked anyone but Michelle, he loses, and, again, rightly so.
No doubt you are correct to some extent, and Obama will change the subject and start talking about how he killed Osama bin Laden whenever some one mentions the economy. That may or may not be a winning strategy. He is the incumbent, after all. But if he behaves the way some of his more rabid supporters would like him to do, he comes across as an arrogant asshole. That’s rather opposite to the Rorschach image of hope and change he relied on in 2008.
I realize some of this is wish fulfillment on the SDMB’s part, where Obama says what they think of saying if they were ever in a position to slag on Gingrich or another Republican in public. But if Obama is not smart enough to resist that temptation, he will lose. I suspect he is smart enough, but I hope that he is not.
I will be very surprised if it comes to this. The nominee will be Mitt Romney (though I wouldn’t quite bet the house against Perry yet). Newt Gingrich types sometimes make noise in the early going; the electorate eventually errs on the side of sanity.
Thank you for the example. I said nothing of the kind, I said “substituting outrageous BS accusations for substance has been the hallmark of the reactionaries for at least 20 years now. Going into a public forum with one of that strategy’s paladins is foolhardy…” Point being, smart money is on Newt tossing out cowpies with the hope of Obama slipping on one, rather than him legitemately engaging the debate points. Ergo, the likelihood of a “public debate with Gingrich” is slimmer than Sasquatch showing up to moderate it.
Or he’ll just mention how under his policies, the economy improves, while under Republican policies, the economy gets worse. Or he’ll point out that the reason his policies didn’t do even more good is that the Republicans in Congress have been following in Gingrich’s tradition of obstructionism, the same tradition that caused the government shutdown during Clinton’s presidency. It’s not like Gingrich has exactly covered him in glory on that score. Or, well, on any score.
Please. When the economy comes up, there’s no need for Obama to change the subject. He’s going to run against the most hated Congress in history, and pointing out the failures of Republican leadership to pass anything having to do with job creation will have particular appeal should it be Gingrich, a veritable poster child for partisanship and obstructionism in Congress.
Having a disgraced former Speaker of the House running for the presidency when the Legislative Branch is probably the most reviled institution in America is a wonderful strategy for Republicans. I whole-heartedly endorse this novel political strategy.
His best stratagy is to point out that Newt is leading with Iowa Republicans which makes him, by definition, completely insane and incapable of winning the nomination, let alone a general election.
It would be nice to think so, but this election season is proof to the contrary.
Yes. A minimum of 80% of the electorate votes for the letter. The campaign is partly to rev them up to ensure that they will go to the polls and partly about persuading the 20% - who are mostly not moderates or independents but apathetic, uninvolved, and uninformed - to move to their side.
What a perfect example of a fact that appears important and overpowering and yet probably has no meaning at all, because of the lack of context.
Mitt Romney was never going to get a large - or moderate or even pathetic - percentage of the Tea Party. (Any choice in any poll for anything will get 4%. It’s noise, not an opinion.) It doesn’t matter which of the many right-wing favorites have risen against him this year, the percentage would be about the same. So as soon as you say “Tea Party”, I have to come back with “so what”?
And the fact that it’s the Iowa Tea Party lessens even the tiny amount of value it has. Romney hasn’t been running in Iowa. He wrote the state off a long time ago. It’s too Christian conservative for him to make any headway, and the caucus nature of the vote where everybody knows who you’re voting for makes a counter vote even more socially unacceptable. Iowa, of course, has a lousy record of predicting nominees. A win there is mostly for the media and the attention it brings, because donations follow attention. The candidates with money, like Romney, can afford to slight Iowa. He’s starting his big push in New Hampshire, where he is still the favorite, despite Gingrich being the latest flavor of the month there.
I’ve said from the beginning that Romney will be the nominee. Nothing has happened to change that.
In 2008, Iowa also selected Huckabee, who clearly didn’t go anywhere nationally. Huckabee got 32% McCain got 12%. Granted, its not as large of a difference as Gingrich over Romney, but its still Iowa, and our R’s don’t have a very good predictive record.
Not really talking about the electorate in general here, though. This discussion is about Republicans who play a role in the process of selecting a Republican nominee.
Not a lot of choice, mate. It’s not like they have a slate of Eisenhowers, Kemps, Connellys, and Doles to choose from. Romney and Perry are the only ones who wouldn’t have gotten a collective “yeah, right” thirty years ago.
Interesting bit at the end ofthis article (that describes the 3-ring circus that is Trump’s upcoming debate hosting):
So… By revealing his ethical breaches, Pelosi herself would then be guilty of an ethical breach, thus nullifying any wrongdoing on his part! Very clever, Mr. Gingrich.
Gingrich just simply does not have the capacity to rouse the affect of people. He cannot fire people up, has no charm, and (relatedly) has a smug, superior condescending tone that he seems unable to turn off.
Secondly, his policy positions and ethics are a nightmare. Even if previous decades never happened, this is a guy who got millions from Freddie Mac, and is also pushing a suggestion that we should put more 9 year olds to work.
Obama shouldn’t take it all lightly, but if Newt wins the nomination, it will be a devastating blow to the Republican chances.
He doesn’t even seem to have projected any clear notion of why he wants to be president (other than “I want to ride in the front of the plane this time”).