Newt Gingrich is throwing his hat into the ring to make a try for GOP nominee for president. On the one hand he’s got lots of political experience, ex-Speaker of the House, wrote the Contract for America, he’s got name recognition.
On the other hand he’s old, hasn’t done anything important for years, and there’s that whole ‘left dying wife to bang another’ thing in his past.
The Republican field isn’t very strong so far, and very few have officially announced their intentions. So has Gingrich got a snowball’s chance?
Short answer: No, he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance of getting the nomination, or even at making a respectable showing.
He has no base that he can rely on. Never mind the public at large, just which faction in the Republican Party do you expect to rally around him or get excited by his candidacy?
I’ve been saying for a long time, the Republican Party doesn’t pick candidates by ideology. Rather, the party looks around and asks “Whose turn is it?” They usually pick a runner-up from previous election seasons.
Hence, as much as I HATE to say this, we’re likely to be stuck with Mitt Romney.
He’s doing it for the money. He can sell more books about his “incredible odysssey” or some other nonsense when he ultimately withdraws from the race. Of course he gets to keep the campaign contributions, too. Nice.
Not much of a chance, no. My dad is excited about the fact that he’s running, but other than a few folks like that I don’t see even most Republicans getting behind Gingrich. Certainly the public at large isn’t going to, IMHO…too much baggage.
The heavy hitter Iowa Republican donors are undertaking a desperate mission into the heart of NJ to beg Christie to run so that they can have *someone *to give money to, so I would give better odds to the snowball right now.
Interesting, my dad who is 70+ is kind of excited, but he is waiting ot see what other big names come into play - he’s not so excited about Romney, because he thinks he will keep healthcare reform even though his talking head is saying he won’t. But how could he not? He did the same darn thing in MA…
Dad was hoping for a military nominee, but there are none.
None of them are going to undo the popular parts of the program (allowing young-adult children to remain on parents’ policies; preventing exclusions for preexisting conditions), no matter what their talking heads say.
Getting back to the OP, of course not. The man has more baggage than Hartsfield-Jackson Airport.
I really didn’t expect Gingrich to go through with it. (Assuming he does, but that looks pretty definite right now.) He’ll be lucky to finish in the top 3 anywhere, and the inside-the-Beltway pundits will be forced to acknowledge, however briefly, that essentially nobody other than themselves gives a flying fuck about this has-been.
Well, there’s that, to be sure. He had such a good money making machine going, but it more or less depended upon his not actually, officially running, I was pretty sure he wouldn’t pull the pin. So maybe this “announcement” will just be another announcement of forming an exploratory committee to examine the possibility of maybe considering something like this, if you send a contribution today! I would totally believe that.
Huckabee is A runner-up, but he’s shown absolutely ZERO ability to appeal to any voters who aren’t evangelical Christians.
Evangelical Christians can be an important building block in a winning coalition, but you can’t win with them alone.
Mitt Romney CAN win SOME votes on the Religious Right, if he becomes the clear frontrunner. But Mike Huckabee CAN’T win votes from suburbanites in the North or Midwest.
Then again, Barack is a nice woody name, so it’s no wonder he was elected. Newt is right tinny. I mean, come on. Newt, Newt, Newt. Tinny. Terribly tinny. Barack. Baraaaaack. Now there’s a woody name for you. Barack. Woody. Electable.
Newt has a massive funding mechanism and the support of Fox News/talk radio (full support in the general, tempered support during the primaries). A single successful retaliatory strike[sup]*[/sup], some bad economic events (irrespective of whether they are rationally attributable to Obama) and a juicy target in the White House (again, rationality notwithstanding) could lead to his election.
{{{shudder}}}
This is particularly exacerbated by an apparent (not necessarily real) perception of complacency on the Left–not only has Obama let a lot of people down (e.g., Gitmo still open), but can’t hold a candle to the fear-mongering and pandering of the right. People still believe he nationalized the auto industry, health care, etc., and are horrified at this horrible socialist horrible path he’s horribly taken us down (horribly).
I’d like to believe that Newt, Palin, Bachman, et al don’t really have a chance, but there are too many people who ‘just ask questions’, take Fox news literally, and believe WND is a news organization. Elections aren’t won just by majorities, they can be won by motivated minorities.
Gingrich has quite more than a snowball’s chance, in my opinion. He doesn’t have instant mass appeal like Palin, but he is seen as a responsible fiscal conservative by everyone who would consider voting for a fiscal conservative. Many people give him credit for balancing the budget in the 90s, even though he was the chief architect of the (failed) resistance to the balanced budget bill.
I give him a fair shot at winning the Republican primary. A much lower shot of actually beating Obama, though.
