The swing to Newt, both in SC and nationally, is pretty astounding.
In SC, the final PPP poll is out. They were in the field Wednesday night through Friday night - last night.
Over the three-day period, Newt leads Mitt 37-28.
For last night alone, it was 40-26.
Other polls have confirmed the earlier stages of this swing, but PPP is the only one released so far that has Friday polling, taking into account Thursday night’s debate and Marianne show.
Nationally, take the Gallup 5-day rolling average.
For 1/11-15, Romney was up by 23 over Newt.
For 1/14-18, Romney was up by 16.
For 1/15-19, Romney was up by 10.
Ten points would be a big lead still, but it’s very much a trailing indicator right now. Newt’s scored big in the debates Monday and Thursday nights. Gallup’s average won’t include Friday’s polling until later today, and the most recent average still includes two days of polling prior to Monday’s debate.
Just the fact that there was a 6-point swing as 1/14 dropped off the rolling average and was replaced by 1/19 indicates that there was roughly a 30-point swing towards Newt between those two dates.
IOW, in all likelihood, Gallup’s one-day polling for Thursday had Newt in the lead. Gallup’s editor-in-chief referred to the poll movement as a “collapse” in Romney’s support.
In a race like this, the late momentum is everything. And everything seems to point towards the last swing being even more towards Newt than the swing towards him after Monday night.
I think he’s gonna win by about 10 points, +/- 2, say. I’d guess higher if he had any sort of GOTV operation, but he doesn’t, and that’ll keep his margin from being a real blowout.
But Mitt’s looking like a hollow man all of a sudden. The fact that most GOP voters really don’t want him as the nominee is making a real difference for the first time. I’d still bet on him to win the nomination, on sheer money and organization. But Newt’s gonna make him look bad along the way.
