If Iran builds a nuke, do they lose all credibility?

Assume for the moment that despite his hundreds of denials over a period of years, Ahmadinejad announces sometime in 2011 that, hey, look, Iran went ahead and built a nuke after all. How would Iran spin the announcement in a way that keeps any international credibility? How could any foreign government ever trust a single thing say said after that, or be willing to enter any kind of agreement with them?

It’s possible that they’ll spin it this way: “We had to have a nuke for defense, and you would have stopped us if we had announced it, so we were forced to lie”

Or, they could never make a formal announcement, and just “leak” knowledge that they had a bomb, sort of like Israel won’t confirm or deny that they have nukes.

And maybe countries like Russia would greet the news with a “meh,” and continue dealing with Iran as long as it’s profitable – and even secretly delighting in the diplomatic bloody nose given to the West.

But even so, it’s hard to picture Iran avoiding near-unanimous international scorn and isolation of it turns out they were telling bald lies about nukes all these years. What do you think would actually happen?

They don’t announce it. Everyone knows, but they deny or make no comment.

See “Israel”.

They want the credibility that comes from being a nuclear nation.

As for admitting they lied- what international credibility does Iran have now? The West doesn’t like them, other countries in their region generally don’t trust them. Their largest allies don’t seem to care much about this.

How much credibility do they have NOW? They’re considered a state sponsor of terrorism, and their president is a Holocaust denier that wants to wipe Israel off the map. They’ll get some saber rattling, maybe another round of sanctions, but they’d buy themselves a radioactive “Get out of invasion free” card. I suspect that’s probably worth it to them.

They aren’t going to start lobbing nukes at Israel, at least not as long as anybody sane has launch authority. Doing that would get the entire country turned into a parking lot, and anybody with any sense has to realize that.

Like Pakistan, and India?
Ooooh, the scorn and sanctions, they HURT!!! :wink:
Seriously, the only ones who’d get permanently bent out of shape by an Iranian bomb are the Likudniks. Even America would eventually come to accept the new facts on the ground, as we did in the cases of India and Pakistan.

I think the OP is really missing the point. Realistically, Iran would probably gain credibility in many parts of the world because they have the Bomb and are standing firm against the imperialists.

I don’t think the Arabs would like it much.

Ring-Ring. Ring-Ring.

Hello? This is Hugo.

Hey Hugo. Guess what I got?

Dude. You are the MAN!

Same way they do with all the other countries that lie, like say America?

ARE there any countries that make a point of being truthful?

No matter how many times it’s repeated a lie will remain a lie.

‘Wiped off the Map’ – The Rumor of the Century


As to the OP, what John said.

From your own link:

The rest of the article seems to be quibbling over how exactly Ahmadinejad’s statement is best translated; did he say Israel must be wiped off the map or did he say Israel must vanish from the page of time? Potato - potahto.

Dude, that cite has about as much credibility as The Onion, but isn’t as funny. Even taking their version of the story at face value, the spin doctoring is enough to induce nausea in most sane adults. The fucker hosted a symposium of Holocaust deniers. A nice guy is exactly what he ain’t.

This is also a guy who denied that there are any gays in Iran, and that being gay is a decadent western issue, not something that ever occurs in his country. I’m unsure why some people on this board want to cut this guy any slack at all, considering his stances on things. This is a guy who’s country recently executed several people because they were protesting the government, and who have executed people for being homosexuals. Given that, why would it be such a stretch that he wouldn’t shed any tears seeing Israel eliminated?
At any rate, I’m going along with others in this thread…WHAT credibility could Iran possibly lose at this point? The only reason they have any at all is because North Korea is still out there and setting the bar so low for everyone else…

-XT

"It’s possible that they’ll spin it this way: “We had to have a nuke for defense, and you would have stopped us if we had announced it, so we were forced to lie” "

Id say thats probably more what they sincerely believe rather than spin. They view themselves as under siege from the West and needing it for survival.

Otara

“We’re here, we’re nuclear, get used to it.”

Nuclear powers have credibility by definition.

Good grief…the comment I was ready to make was already made…

…and by Der Trihs, with whom I have not previously agreed on anything.

But Der Trihs is absolutely correct.

All countries lie and deceive…or at least, it appears as though the all do and my guess (gotta be agnostic all the way) is that accusing a nation of lying when they think it is in their best interest is like accusing them of trying to increase productivity or trying to improve their share of the world market.

Of course Iran is lying.

Everyone pretty much knows that already.

Whatever they are doing now is what they will be doing when “they find out”…which is mostly gonna be a variation on “nothing.”

Iran…and much, much worse…will eventually have a nuclear capability.

We gotta live with that.

Or to put it another way, countries will be spending much more time thinking about the implications of Iran having a nuclear weapon, rather than wringing their hands and telling each other that the Ayatollah has his pants on fire.

Never said he was – a “nice guy” that is. But other than attacking the source I fail to see how your post is a rebuttal of the linked article.

Israel built theirs on the sly while denying doing it. If you say you want to build one you get in international trouble making the process so much more difficult. If you are not planning on a bomb but actually planning on nuclear power, you will never convince some people of that. Iran seems to have plenty of internal troubles. They may fall apart. I do not want America to get blamed for that.